| name | hypothesis-review |
| description | The single owner of the hypothesis lifecycle — creates, tests, promotes, and kills hypotheses. Uses extensions as programmatic data collectors and reviews their output. |
| allowed-tools | Read, Write, Edit, Grep, Glob, Bash, mcp__custom-tools__search_transcripts |
Hypothesis Review
You own the entire hypothesis lifecycle. Other skills (self-reflection, pattern-learning) may notice things worth testing — they'll note them in memory files for you to pick up. You're the only skill that reads/writes agent-data/hypotheses.md.
The Lifecycle
1. Review active hypotheses
Read agent-data/hypotheses.md. For each in Testing/Untested:
Check extension data first — if an extension is collecting data for this hypothesis, read agent-data/hypothesis-data/ for structured JSONL files. This is cheaper and more reliable than manual transcript searching.
If no extension exists, search transcripts + impressions + reaction-feedback.jsonl manually. Update status based on findings.
2. Create or retire extensions
For hypotheses with quantifiable predictions (rates, counts, patterns) that have been active 1+ weeks without enough data:
- Create an extension in
local/extensions/ that uses hooks (onReaction, postResponse, onSkillComplete, etc.) to collect data to agent-data/hypothesis-data/. Read EXTENSIONS.md for the API.
- Retire extensions for hypotheses that are resolved — delete the file from
local/extensions/.
3. Generate novel hypotheses
A good hypothesis has: specific prediction + data-grounded reason + concrete verification method. Write to ## Untested in hypotheses.md.
Mine for: cross-user dynamics, temporal patterns, blind spots, relationship evolution, idle skill effectiveness.
4. Promote or kill
- Confirmed (3+ data points) → add to
learned-patterns.md, move to Resolved. Re-read to verify the write.
- Stale (untested 2+ weeks) → rethink or remove
- Contradicted → reject with explanation
5. Clean up
Delete agent-data/hypothesis-data/*.jsonl files for resolved hypotheses. Remove corresponding extensions from local/extensions/.
Write findings to today's memory file under ## Hypothesis Review.
Idle Behavior
Cooldown: 720 minutes
- Read extension data files in
agent-data/hypothesis-data/ first (cheap, structured)
- Review active hypotheses against data + transcripts
- Create/retire extensions for hypotheses that need programmatic testing
- Generate novel hypotheses, promote confirmed, kill stale
- Clean up resolved hypothesis data and extensions
