prediction-markets-analysis

name	prediction-markets-analysis
description	Generate deep research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. Combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to surface price drivers, compare market vs. model probabilities, and identify potential mispricings across 120+ active markets.

Prediction Markets Analysis

Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.

Prerequisites

Ensure the Octagon Claude plugin is installed and configured in Claude Code before invoking this skill.

Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.

Core Functionality

The Prediction Markets Agent provides:

Capability	Description
Market vs. Model Probability	Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price
Event-Driven Research	Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events
Historical Resolution Tracking	Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates
Contract Snapshot	Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest
Cross-Category Coverage	120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate

Model Variants

Variant	Description	Use Case
octagon-prediction-markets-agent	Default. Returns cached report if available, otherwise generates new	General use
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:cache	Always retrieves cached report	Fastest response, may not be latest
octagon-prediction-markets-agent:refresh	Always generates fresh report	Most up-to-date, takes several minutes

Example Queries

Federal Reserve Policy

Analyze this Fed decision prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jun

Cryptocurrency Price Range

Research this Bitcoin price prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01

Sports Matchup

Analyze this NHL playoff prediction market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhleast/eastern-conference-championship/kxnhleast-26

Entertainment Awards

Research this Grammy nomination market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgrammynomsoty/grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year/kxgrammynomsoty-69

IPO Timing

Analyze when SpaceX will IPO: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxipospacex/when-will-spacex-ipo/kxipospacex

Force Fresh Report

Generate a fresh report (bypass cache) for: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-27jan01

Example Response Structure

## Market Overview
- **Event**: Fed Decision June 2026
- **Resolution Date**: June 18, 2026
- **Current Market Price**: 72% (Hold rates)
- **Model Probability**: 68%
- **Mispricing Signal**: Market slightly overpriced

## Price Drivers
1. **Recent Economic Data**: CPI trending lower, supporting rate hold
2. **Fed Communications**: Dovish tone in recent FOMC minutes
3. **Labor Market**: Unemployment stable at 4.1%

## Key Catalysts
| Date | Event | Potential Impact |
|------|-------|------------------|
| June 10 | CPI Release | High - could shift probabilities 5-10% |
| June 12 | FOMC Statement | Medium - language on future path |

## Historical Resolution Context
- Last 6 meetings: 4 holds, 2 cuts
- Model accuracy on this series: 78%

## Contract Details
| Outcome | Bid | Ask | Last | Volume | OI |
|---------|-----|-----|------|--------|-----|
| Hold | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 15,234 | 89,000 |
| Cut 25bp | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 8,456 | 45,000 |
| Hike | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 2,100 | 12,000 |

## Recommendation
**Slight Sell** on Hold contract. Model sees 4% overpricing. Consider waiting for CPI data before positioning.

Market Categories

The agent covers 120+ active markets across:

Category	Example Markets
Politics	Elections, legislation, executive actions
Economics	Fed decisions, inflation, employment data
Crypto	Bitcoin/Ethereum price ranges, ETF approvals
Sports	Championship outcomes, playoff matchups
Entertainment	Awards shows, box office, streaming
Science & Tech	Space launches, AI milestones, IPO timing
Climate	Temperature records, hurricane landfalls

Use Cases

Identify Mispricings

Compare crowd consensus against model-derived probability to find trading opportunities.

Pre-Trade Research

Research key drivers behind a prediction market price before placing a trade.

Catalyst Monitoring

Monitor upcoming events that could move contract prices.

Event Analysis

Get structured, sourced research on fast-moving events in politics, finance, and beyond.

Historical Data Access

Use the prediction_markets_history tool to fetch historical data:

Fetch historical data for prediction market ticker KXFEDDECISION-26JUN from January to June 2026

Parameters:

• ticker: Market ticker symbol
• captured_from: Start date filter
• captured_to: End date filter
• limit: Number of records
• cursor: Pagination cursor

Integration with Other Skills

Combine with other Octagon skills for comprehensive analysis:

Skill	Integration Use
earnings-call-analysis	Analyze CEO comments relevant to prediction market events
sec-8k-analysis	Track material events that could impact market outcomes
stock-performance	Correlate stock moves with prediction market probabilities

Analysis Tips

1. Check model vs. market spread: Larger spreads suggest potential mispricings

2. Monitor catalyst calendar: Know when decision-flipping events are scheduled

3. Review resolution history: Past accuracy provides context for current probabilities

4. Consider liquidity: Check volume and open interest before sizing positions

5. Use cache wisely: Use :cache for quick checks, :refresh before trading

6. Cross-reference sources: Combine prediction market analysis with fundamental research

Supported Platforms

• Kalshi: Full support for all active markets
• Polymarket: Coming soon

For More Markets

Browse the full list of supported markets at octagonai.co/markets.