| name | decision-maker |
| description | Helps make high-quality decisions using proven frameworks from top experts.
Use when: deciding between options, facing difficult choices, setting up
decision processes, running pre-mortems, determining when to quit/continue,
or needing group input on a decision. Includes: SPADE, Nominal Group,
Kill Criteria, Pre-Mortem, Opportunity Cost frameworks.
Sources: Gokul Rajaram, Annie Duke, Shreyas Doshi.
|
Decision-Maker Skill
Help users make better decisions using proven frameworks from Lenny's Podcast experts.
When This Skill Activates
- "Help me decide..."
- "Should we do A or B?"
- "How do we make this decision?"
- "We need alignment on..."
- "Should we continue this project?"
- "When should we quit?"
- "Run a pre-mortem"
- "I can't choose between..."
- "What's the opportunity cost?"
Framework Selection Guide
| Situation | Use This Framework |
|---|
| Big strategic decision with stakeholders | SPADE |
| Need group input without groupthink | Nominal Group |
| Deciding whether to continue/quit | Kill Criteria |
| Assessing risks before launch | Pre-Mortem |
| Comparing prioritization options | Opportunity Cost |
Framework 1: SPADE (Big Decisions)
Source: Gokul Rajaram - Lenny's Podcast
Key Insight: Most decision delays come from unclear ownership and insufficient exploration of alternatives.
When to Use
- Major product decisions
- Strategic choices with significant tradeoffs
- Cross-functional decisions requiring alignment
- High-stakes, irreversible decisions
- When decision ownership is unclear
Procedure
S - Setting (Define the context)
Template: "We need to decide [specific decision] by [date]
because [why it matters now]. Constraints: [list them]."
P - People (Assign roles)
- Responsible: ONE decision-maker (not a committee)
- Approvers: Must approve (keep minimal)
- Consulted: Provide input
- Informed: Told after decision
A - Alternatives (Generate options)
- Create at least 3 alternatives (avoids false binary)
- Always include "do nothing" as an option
- Each must be viable with clear tradeoffs
D - Decide (Make the call)
- Gather input from Consulted parties
- Evaluate alternatives against criteria
- Decision-maker makes the call
- Get approval from Approvers
- Document decision and rationale
E - Explain (Communicate)
- What was decided
- Why this alternative was chosen
- What alternatives were considered
- What happens next
Pitfalls to Avoid
- Vague decision framing
- Multiple decision-makers (pick ONE)
- Only two alternatives (generate more)
- Relitigating after decision is made
Framework 2: Nominal Group Method (Group Decisions)
Source: Annie Duke - Lenny's Podcast
Key Insight: The only thing that should happen in a meeting is discussion—discovery and decisions should happen independently.
When to Use
- Brainstorming sessions
- Forecasting and estimation
- Any group decision-making process
- When you need diverse input without groupthink
Procedure
Step 1: Discover Independently (Before Meeting)
- Send question to all participants
- Each person responds privately (no reply-all)
- Collect: their answer + brief rationale
Step 2: Aggregate and Share
- Compile all responses anonymously or attributed
- Highlight the spread of opinions
- Share before the meeting
Step 3: Discuss in Meeting (Focus on Disagreements)
- 80% of time on differences, not agreements
- Facilitator reflects back without opinion
- No interrupting, no "you're wrong"
- Ask clarifying questions only
Step 4: Decide Independently (After Meeting)
- Single decision-maker decides, OR
- Independent vote (can't see others' votes)
- Don't force "alignment"—it doesn't exist
Step 5: Use "Nevertheless"
"I've heard everyone's input. Nevertheless, we're going
to do X. Here's why..."
Pitfalls to Avoid
- Discovering opinions in the meeting (anchoring bias)
- Letting loudest voice dominate
- Seeking "alignment" (accept disagreement)
- Senior person speaking first
Framework 3: Kill Criteria (When to Quit)
Source: Annie Duke - Lenny's Podcast
Key Insight: Pre-mortems only work if paired with pre-committed actions you'll take when signals appear.
When to Use
- Starting new projects or initiatives
- Making investment decisions
- Pursuing sales deals
- Launching experiments
- Any decision where you might need to quit later
Procedure
Step 1: Run Pre-Mortem
"Imagine it's [timeframe] from now and this has failed
completely. What were the early warning signals?"
Step 2: Categorize Signals
| Category | Response |
|---|
| Red | Fatal—kill immediately |
| Yellow | Serious—requires intervention |
| Orange | Concerning—investigate |
Step 3: Define Actions for Each Signal
For each signal, specify:
- What action to take (kill, pivot, investigate, escalate)
- Who owns the action
- Timeline to act
Step 4: Commit Before Launch
- Review kill criteria with team
- Get explicit agreement to act when signals appear
- Document the commitments
Step 5: Monitor and Execute
- Check for signals regularly
- When signal appears: execute pre-committed action
- No debate—time for debate was when setting criteria
Example Kill Criteria
Signal: Customer only discusses price, won't demo
Category: Red
Action: Kill the deal immediately
Owner: Account Executive
Reasoning: They're using us to beat up a competitor on price
Pitfalls to Avoid
- Setting criteria but not committing to act
- Renegotiating when signal appears ("but it's different now")
- Vague signals that can't be observed
- No action owner assigned
Framework 4: Pre-Mortem Technique (Risk Assessment)
Source: Shreyas Doshi - Lenny's Podcast
Key Insight: Imagining failure before it happens surfaces risks that optimism blinds us to.
When to Use
- Before launching projects
- Before major initiatives
- When stakes are high
- When team seems overconfident
Procedure
Step 1: Set the Scene
"Imagine it's 6 months from now. This project has failed
completely. What went wrong?"
Step 2: Individual Brainstorm (5-10 min)
- Each person writes 3-5 failure scenarios independently
- Include specific, concrete reasons
- Don't share yet
Step 3: Aggregate and Categorize
- Collect all failure scenarios
- Group similar ones
- Identify themes
Step 4: Prioritize Top Risks
- Vote on most likely/impactful
- Focus on top 3-5 risks
Step 5: Create Mitigation Plans
For each top risk:
- Prevention: How to reduce likelihood
- Detection: How to spot it early
- Response: What to do if it happens
Step 6: Set Kill Criteria (Optional)
- Convert key risks into kill criteria
- Pre-commit to actions
Pitfalls to Avoid
- Not making it independent (groupthink)
- Stopping at identification (need mitigation)
- Not following up on mitigations
- Using it to justify not launching (that's not the point)
Framework 5: Opportunity Cost Mindset (Prioritization)
Source: Shreyas Doshi - Lenny's Podcast
Key Insight: The true cost of doing something is everything else you can't do—not just the resources spent.
When to Use
- Prioritization debates
- Resource allocation decisions
- "Should we do this?" discussions
- When ROI analysis feels incomplete
Procedure
Step 1: Identify the Proposal
- What's being proposed?
- What resources does it require?
- What's the expected outcome?
Step 2: List Alternatives (What You're NOT Doing)
- What else could these resources accomplish?
- What's the best alternative use?
- Include "do nothing" and "do less"
Step 3: Compare Against Best Alternative
Don't ask: "Is this worth doing?"
Ask: "Is this MORE worth doing than the best alternative?"
Step 4: Factor in Hidden Costs
- Context switching costs
- Maintenance burden
- Complexity added
- Options foreclosed
Step 5: Factor in Hidden Benefits
- Learning and optionality value
- Platform/foundation value
- Strategic positioning
Step 6: Make Explicit Tradeoff
"We're choosing to do X instead of Y because [reason].
We accept that Y won't happen."
The ROI Trap
- ROI asks: "Does this return more than it costs?"
- Problem: Everything with positive ROI looks good
- Opportunity cost asks: "Is this the BEST use of resources?"
Pitfalls to Avoid
- Only looking at ROI (ignores alternatives)
- Not quantifying what you're giving up
- Treating decisions as independent (they're not)
- Ignoring option value
How to Apply This Skill
-
Listen for the decision type
- Big strategic → SPADE
- Group input needed → Nominal Group
- Continue/quit → Kill Criteria
- Risk assessment → Pre-Mortem
- Prioritization → Opportunity Cost
-
Walk through the selected framework step-by-step with the user
-
Highlight relevant pitfalls based on their situation
-
Offer to combine frameworks when appropriate (e.g., Pre-Mortem → Kill Criteria)
Related Skills
/strategy-advisor - For strategic direction questions/goal-setter - For goal-setting and prioritization/leadership-coach - For team decision dynamics
Full SOPs (Deep Dives)
