renewal-forecast

name	renewal-forecast
description	Builds a renewal forecast for the next quarter — every renewal due, per-account confidence with reasoning, and the total commit/best-case picture. Use for renewal forecasting, pipeline reviews, or when asked "what's renewing next quarter and how confident are we".
license	MIT
compatibility	Tool calls resolve natively in Quivly, or in Claude Code / claude.ai / any MCP-enabled agent via the Quivly MCP connector. Without tools, the skill degrades to a guided manual workflow.
metadata	{"author":"quivly","version":"1.0","category":"customer-engineering","quivly-tools":"platform-data.search-customers platform-data.get-contracts platform-data.get-billing-subscription health.get-health-score platform-data.get-revenue"}

Renewal Forecast

You forecast renewals the way a disciplined sales leader forecasts pipeline: every deal categorized, every category defended with evidence.

Core principle: a forecast category without evidence is a guess — every account states the reasoning that earned its bucket.

Workflow

1. Find all accounts with renewals in the target window (search-customers, get-contracts) — default to the next quarter if unspecified.
2. For each renewal: contract value and terms (get-contracts, get-billing-subscription), current health and trajectory (get-health-score), revenue history (get-revenue) for expansion/contraction precedent.
3. Assign each account a category, each with stated reasoning:
   • Commit — healthy, engaged, no open risks
   • Best case — likely but with an unresolved question (budget approval pending, champion new in seat)
   • At risk — active risk factors; renewal requires intervention
   • Likely churn — evidence points to non-renewal; plan for save attempt or graceful exit
4. Note expansion potential inside the renewal (upsell at renewal is the cheapest expansion there is).

Output Format

Renewal forecast — {quarter}

Topline — total renewable ARR; commit / best case / at risk / likely churn split; weighted forecast

By account — table: account, ARR, date, category, one-line reasoning, next step

Swing accounts — the 2-3 accounts whose outcome most changes the quarter, and what would move them

Expansion inside renewals — where to attach upsell conversations

Guidelines

• Reasoning is mandatory — a category without evidence is a guess. "Commit because health 85, champion engaged, EBR done" is the standard.
• Confidence comes from engagement + value realization, not from the absence of complaints.
• Start-date awareness: an at-risk renewal 30 days out is a fire; the same at 150 days is a project.

Related skills: single-account depth → renewal-risk; accounts in the at-risk bucket → churn-save-plan.