technical-analyst

name	technical-analyst
description	Use when the user wants a trend analysis, support/resistance levels, pattern recognition, or probability-weighted price scenarios for a specific ticker.

Technical Analyst

Overview

Performs chart-based technical analysis using trader CLI strategy outputs as the primary data source. Combines MA cross trend signals, RSI momentum readings, and current price/quote data to assess trend direction, identify key levels, and produce probability-weighted scenarios. Pattern recognition (higher highs/lows, support/resistance, candlestick formations) is overlaid on the quantitative signal output.

This skill does not require chart images — it derives all technical context from CLI JSON output.

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When to Use

• "Do a technical analysis on AAPL"
• "What's the trend for NVDA?"
• "Where is support/resistance for TSLA?"
• "Give me a bull/bear scenario breakdown for MSFT"
• "Is GOOGL in an uptrend or downtrend?"
• "Check the MA cross and RSI for [ticker]"

Do not use for:

• Fundamental or earnings analysis (use stock-screener)
• Placing orders (use trader-cli directly)
• Multi-stock screening (use stock-screener)

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Workflow

Step 1: Gather Quantitative Signals

Run all three data pulls in parallel (or sequentially if needed):

# Current price, volume, 52wk range
uv run trader quotes get TICKER

# MA cross: trend direction, MA levels, crossover signals
uv run trader strategies run TICKER --strategy ma_cross --lookback 1y

# RSI: momentum, overbought/oversold
uv run trader strategies run TICKER --strategy rsi

And recent news sentiment for context:

uv run trader news sentiment TICKER --lookback 7d

Step 2: Assess Trend Direction

From ma_cross output, determine:

Signal field	Interpretation
trend: uptrend	Price above both MAs, golden cross confirmed
trend: downtrend	Price below both MAs, death cross
trend: sideways	MAs converging, no clear direction
short_ma vs long_ma	Short above long = bullish structure
price vs long_ma	Price > long MA = above 200-period support

Classify trend strength:

• Strong uptrend — Price > short MA > long MA, widening spread
• Weak uptrend — Price > long MA but below short MA (pullback zone)
• Distribution — Price < short MA but still > long MA (caution)
• Downtrend — Price < both MAs

Step 3: RSI Momentum Assessment

From rsi strategy output:

RSI Range	Interpretation
>70	Overbought — momentum strong but watch for reversal
50–70	Bullish momentum — healthy uptrend zone
30–50	Bearish momentum — potential base-building
<30	Oversold — watch for reversal signal
signal: buy	RSI crossed up through threshold
signal: sell	RSI crossed down

Note divergences: if price makes new highs but RSI makes lower highs → bearish divergence.

Step 4: Key Price Levels

From quotes get output:

• week_52_high / week_52_low — Macro range bounds
• last — Current price
• Compute distance to 52wk high: (week_52_high - last) / week_52_high × 100

From ma_cross output:

• short_ma — Near-term dynamic support/resistance
• long_ma — Long-term dynamic support/resistance

Derive key levels:

• Primary resistance — 52-week high (if not at ATH)
• Near support — Short MA (e.g., 50-day)
• Major support — Long MA (e.g., 200-day)
• Secondary support — Recent swing lows (use judgment from trend context)

Step 5: Pattern Recognition Framework

Apply these pattern checks qualitatively using the trend and level data:

Trend structure (from MA cross context):

• Higher highs + higher lows = healthy uptrend
• Lower highs + lower lows = downtrend
• Converging highs and lows = consolidation / triangle

Volume context (from quotes volume):

• Volume spike on breakout above resistance = bullish confirmation
• Volume declining on rally = weakening momentum (distribution)
• High volume on down days = institutional selling

Candlestick / price action signals (apply if price context available):

• Price rejected at 52wk high multiple times = strong resistance
• Price bouncing off long MA repeatedly = reliable support
• Tight price range after advance = potential VCP / coiling (see vcp-screener skill)

Step 6: Build Probability-Weighted Scenarios

Construct 2–4 scenarios that total 100%. Standard template:

Scenario	Probability	Trigger	Target	Invalidation
Base (continuation)	40–60%	Holds above short MA + RSI 50+	52wk high / ATH	Close below long MA
Bull (breakout)	15–30%	Break above 52wk high on volume	[next resistance / measured move]	Fails to hold breakout
Pullback (healthy)	15–25%	Dip to short MA, holds	Bounce to prior high	Accelerates lower
Bear (breakdown)	5–20%	Close below long MA	[support below / -15–20%]	Reclaims long MA

Probability assignment rules:

• Assign highest probability to scenario consistent with dominant trend
• If RSI is overbought + price at 52wk high → reduce bull, increase healthy pullback scenario
• If trend is downtrend → bear scenario should be ≥30%
• Always include an invalidation level (where the thesis is wrong)

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Output Format

## Technical Analysis: TICKER — YYYY-MM-DD

### Trend Assessment
- Direction: [Strong Uptrend | Weak Uptrend | Sideways | Distribution | Downtrend]
- MA Structure: Price $XXX | Short MA $XXX | Long MA $XXX
- MA Cross Signal: [Golden cross / Death cross / No cross]
- RSI: [value] — [Overbought/Bullish/Bearish/Oversold]
- News Sentiment (7d): [score] — [Positive/Neutral/Negative]

### Key Levels
| Level | Price | Type |
|-------|-------|------|
| 52wk High | $XXX | Primary resistance |
| Short MA | $XXX | Near support |
| Long MA | $XXX | Major support |
| 52wk Low | $XXX | Macro floor |

### Pattern Notes
[2–4 bullet observations: trend structure, volume, price action, coiling/base]

### Scenarios

| Scenario | Probability | Trigger | Target | Invalidation |
|----------|-------------|---------|--------|--------------|
| Base (continuation) | X% | ... | $XXX | $XXX |
| Bull (breakout) | X% | ... | $XXX | $XXX |
| Pullback | X% | ... | $XXX | $XXX |
| Bear | X% | ... | $XXX | $XXX |

### Summary
[2–3 sentences: overall read, highest-conviction scenario, key risk to watch]

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CLI Integration Reference

Purpose	Command
Current price + 52wk range	uv run trader quotes get TICKER
MA trend + levels (1yr lookback)	uv run trader strategies run TICKER --strategy ma_cross --lookback 1y
RSI momentum	uv run trader strategies run TICKER --strategy rsi
News sentiment context	uv run trader news sentiment TICKER --lookback 7d

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Common Mistakes

• Using short lookback for MA cross — Always use --lookback 1y for meaningful 200-period MA computation.
• Treating RSI in isolation — RSI >70 in a strong uptrend is normal; pair with MA cross trend for context.
• Skipping the invalidation level — Every scenario needs a clear price where it is wrong. This prevents scenario drift.
• Over-specifying targets without data — Only state price targets you can derive from the CLI output (52wk levels, MA values). Do not invent arbitrary Fibonacci levels.
• Ignoring news sentiment — A -0.8 sentiment score during an otherwise bullish technical setup is a meaningful warning; mention it as a risk factor.
• Assigning equal probabilities — Scenarios should reflect the dominant trend. Equal weighting signals insufficient analysis.