Apply relevant mental models for strategy, forecasts, recommendations, or advice. Skip for execution, lookups, and mechanical edits.
Installation
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Apply relevant mental models for strategy, forecasts, recommendations, or advice. Skip for execution, lookups, and mechanical edits.
The future is hard to predict, engineer serendipity and anti-fragility.
Effort is not proportional to results.
Compounding is powerful, literally exponential, and consistently under-estimated.
Binding constraints and slow variables (tolerance, biology, cognition, regulation, culture, expertise pipelines, infrastructure, coordination, fixed supply, physics, ...) limit improvements, often acting as invariants.
Moats are expensive-to-try + vague-to-verify. Cheap trying + clear verifying invites automation. Cutting either cost (simulators, instruments) is a strategic act — deliberate or hostile.
