| name | campfire-era |
| description | The 40-year bond bull market is over. Campfire Era scores your portfolio for the new inflationary regime — hard assets, pricing power monopolies, dollar earners, and real infrastructure win; long-duration paper and story stocks lose. Connects to Zerodha live or accepts manual holdings. IER score (0–10) per holding and portfolio overall, five-dimension breakdown, ARJUN war-context layer, ceasefire scenario, time horizon modifier, MF scoring, and The One Trade. Trigger on: campfire era, IER score, inflation era rating, era mismatch, inflation readiness, am I positioned for the new era, rate my portfolio for inflation, which stocks survive rising rates, inflation era champions, deflation era holdovers, bond yield, gold, ceasefire rotation, ARJUN score, war-context portfolio, mutual fund inflation alignment. |
| author | Subodh Kolhe |
| license | Apache 2.0 — complete terms in LICENSE.txt |
Campfire Era
For Users: How to Use This Skill
What it does
Campfire Era asks a single uncomfortable question about every holding in your portfolio: is this built for the world we're entering, or the world we just left?
The 40-year bond bull market ended. The era of falling rates, expanding PE multiples, and zero cost of capital is over. We are entering a structural inflationary regime — where hard assets, pricing power monopolies, dollar earners, and real infrastructure outperform, while long-duration paper, high-PE story stocks, and import-dependent businesses underperform.
Campfire Era scores every holding on five dimensions and produces two numbers per holding:
- IER (Inflation Era Rating) — how well this holding is structurally positioned for the new macro regime, on a 0–10 scale. A gold miner scores near 10. A long-duration bond fund scores near 0.
- ARJUN (Adaptive Real-time Judgement for Indian Underlyings and Nifty) — a second, separate score measuring how each holding performs right now, in the current Hormuz crisis environment: oil at $100+, rupee weak, FIIs selling. IER tells you if a holding is built for the decade. ARJUN tells you if it's built for this year.
Together they produce a single combined label per holding — from 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD (strong on both) to 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS (weak on both) — and a portfolio-level recommendation: The One Trade.
How to start
Type /campfire-era in the chat. That's it.
If you have Zerodha connected, your live holdings are pulled automatically. If not, paste your portfolio as a list — tickers, amounts, or just the top holdings. Equal weighting is assumed if you don't provide weights.
What you get
The Campfire Era Report — a single HTML file with 10 sections:
- Scores Dashboard — Equity book, MF book, and combined IER with rating band
- Dimension Breakdown — Hard Asset, Earnings Quality, Pricing Power, Currency Protection, New Economy Infrastructure scores with gap flags
- Holding-by-Holding Scores — Every position scored and labelled: 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD through 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS
- Inflation Era Champions — Top 3 holdings with sizing verdict
- Era Mismatches — Bottom 3 holdings with exit/reduce actions
- Gap Analysis — For each dimension below 6.5, specific additions with sizing
- MF Book Deep Dive — Fund-by-fund IER with flags (locked, SEBI cap, mismatch, champion)
- Dual Scenario — Holdings that shift 0.5+ points on a ceasefire; kill switch list
- The Era Narrative — 5–7 sentences on what this portfolio does well, where it's exposed, and the single most important investor decision
- The One Trade — The single highest-impact swap, with exact IER improvement quantified
Parameters you can set
Campfire Era asks four things before scoring. You can answer them upfront or let it use defaults:
| Parameter | Options | Default |
|---|
| Portfolio Type | EQUITY / MF / COMBINED | COMBINED |
| Scenario | WAR / CEASEFIRE / DUAL | WAR (May 2026) |
| Time Horizon | SHORT (1–2yr) / MEDIUM (3–5yr) / LONG (7–10yr) | MEDIUM |
| ARJUN war-context layer | ON / OFF | ON for Indian portfolios |
Zerodha live data
Campfire Era connects to Zerodha Kite MCP for live holdings. One-time setup:
- Open claude.ai → click your profile → Customize
- Go to Connections or MCP Servers
- Add:
https://mcp.kite.trade/mcp
- Authenticate with your Zerodha credentials
- Run
/campfire-era — live data activates automatically
If you don't use Zerodha
Paste your holdings directly. Any format works — a screenshot description, "COALINDIA 20%, HDFCBANK 15%...", or a CSV paste. Campfire Era will work with whatever you provide.
What it doesn't do
It doesn't execute trades, place orders, or modify your account. All scores are research tools — not SEBI-registered investment advice.
For Skill Authors: Framework Reference
Overview
Campfire Era is a macro regime portfolio scoring skill. It scores any equity or mutual fund portfolio on structural alignment with the new inflationary era (post-2020 bond bull market end), overlays a war-context ARJUN layer for Indian portfolios, and produces a 10-section report with the single most impactful trade recommendation.
Core principle: Every holding earns its place or doesn't. The IER score is unsentimental — a gold ETF outscores a long-duration bond fund regardless of what the user paid for either.
Step 0: Establish Four Parameters
Before scoring, determine:
A. Portfolio Type
- EQUITY: Individual stocks — use Step 2A
- MF: Mutual funds — use Step 2B
- COMBINED: Both — score each separately, combine at end
B. Scenario Mode
- WAR MODE (default May 2026): Hormuz closed, oil $100+, rupee ₹95+
- CEASEFIRE MODE: Hormuz reopening, oil dropping toward $85, rupee recovering
- DUAL: Show WAR and CEASEFIRE scores side by side
C. Time Horizon
- SHORT (1-2 years): Emphasise near-term earnings, war-context, kill switches
- MEDIUM (3-5 years): Balance war recovery with structural inflation era — DEFAULT
- LONG (7-10 years): Pure inflation era alignment; war noise irrelevant
D. ARJUN Integration
- ON (default for Indian portfolios): Combine ARJUN war scores with IER
- OFF: IER only
Step 1: Get the Portfolio
Kite MCP connected: Run kite:get_holdings and kite:get_positions. Extract symbol, current_value, weight%.
Manual: Accept list with optional weights. Equal-weight if not provided.
Separate equity from MF holdings. Score each book independently.
Step 2A: Score Each EQUITY Holding
Use references/scoring-tables.md for pre-scored stocks. Apply rubric below for anything not listed.
Five Dimensions
HAS — Hard Asset Score (0-10)
| Score | Description |
|---|
| 9-10 | Direct hard asset: gold, silver, crude, copper, coal in ground |
| 7-8 | Hard asset transport, storage, physical infrastructure |
| 6-7 | Lends against hard assets or owns physical networks |
| 4-5 | Real estate, manufacturing with significant asset base |
| 2-3 | Service businesses, light asset model |
| 0-1 | Pure financial, paper asset, long-duration instrument |
EQS — Earnings Quality Score (0-10)
| Score | Description |
|---|
| 9-10 | Sub-10x PE, high dividend yield, proven cash flows |
| 7-8 | 10-20x PE, growing real earnings |
| 5-6 | 20-35x PE, visible growth path |
| 3-4 | 35-80x PE, story multiple |
| 0-2 | >80x PE, pre-revenue, or loss-making |
PPS — Pricing Power Score (0-10)
| Score | Description |
|---|
| 9-10 | Monopoly/duopoly, essential service, zero substitutes |
| 7-8 | Strong brand moat or regulated returns |
| 5-6 | Competitive but differentiated |
| 3-4 | Commodity price-taker |
| 0-2 | Government-controlled pricing or import-dependent |
CPS — Currency Protection Score (0-10)
| Score | Description |
|---|
| 9-10 | Hard currency revenue or literal foreign asset |
| 7-8 | Majority USD/hard currency revenues |
| 5-6 | Mixed domestic + export |
| 3-4 | Pure domestic but can reprice in inflation |
| 0-2 | Pure domestic rupee, can't reprice |
NIS — New Economy Infrastructure Score (0-10)
| Score | Description |
|---|
| 9-10 | Core DC/AI infra, defence, water, grid modernisation |
| 7-8 | Healthcare, financial infrastructure, insurance |
| 5-6 | Consumer staples, essential services |
| 3-4 | Old economy cyclicals with partial new era relevance |
| 0-2 | Disrupted sectors, pure aviation, legacy models |
IER Formula
IER = (HAS×0.25) + (EQS×0.20) + (PPS×0.20) + (CPS×0.20) + (NIS×0.15)
Step 2B: Score Each MF Holding
Use category-level IER proxies. If top holdings are available, adjust accordingly.
| MF Category | IER | Notes |
|---|
| Gold ETF / Gold Fund | 9.1 | Best inflation era MF category |
| Silver ETF / Silver Fund | 8.5 | Physical deficit + war premium |
| Commodity Fund | 7.5 | Hard assets, diversified |
| International Fund (US/Nasdaq) | 7.1 | Dollar hedge + AI infrastructure |
| International Fund (Taiwan/Korea) | 7.3 | Semiconductor supercycle |
| Infrastructure Fund | 6.9 | Grid, roads, physical assets |
| Defence Fund | 6.6 | Defence supercycle |
| Pharma/Healthcare Fund | 6.4 | Inflation-resistant demand |
| PPFCF (Parag Parikh Flexi Cap) | 6.2 | International equity buffer + quality tilt |
| Multi Asset Fund | 5.6 | Moderate alignment, diversified |
| IT/Tech Fund (India) | 5.6 | Dollar earner but AI disruption risk |
| Flexi Cap (generic) | 5.5 | Holdings-dependent |
| Large Cap (domestic) | 5.0 | FII re-rating risk |
| Banking / Financial Services Fund | 4.8 | Rupee-denominated, rate-sensitive |
| Mid Cap | 4.8 | Higher risk, mixed alignment |
| ELSS (equity-linked savings) | 4.6 | Locked, mixed — flag illiquidity |
| Small Cap | 4.0 | Liquidity risk in inflation |
| Debt Fund (short duration) | 2.8 | Rupee paper |
| Liquid Fund | 3.2 | Cash equivalent, inflation erodes |
| Debt Fund (long duration) | 2.0 | WORST inflation era instrument |
Special cases:
- Zerodha Silver ETF FoF: Score 8.5 — physical silver deficit, war premium
- Motilal S&P 500 / Nasdaq 100 MF: Score 7.1 — dollar hedge, AI infra, SEBI cap breached so flag as no-add
- SBI ELSS: Score 4.6 — locked, treat as illiquid, note lock-in period
- Nippon Taiwan MF: Score 7.3 — semiconductor supercycle, AI supply chain
Step 3: Apply Time Horizon Modifier
After base IER, apply adjustments:
SHORT (1-2 years)
- +1.0: Active war beneficiaries (GESHIP, MCX, Gold ETFs, Muthoot, Coal India)
- -1.0: Ceasefire rotation holds (HDFC Bank pre-deal, Maruti pre-deal)
- -0.5: Long-gestation infrastructure (HAL, POWERGRID multi-year order execution)
- Kill switch stocks = 0 regardless
MEDIUM (3-5 years) — DEFAULT
- No adjustments. Base IER applies.
LONG (7-10 years)
- +1.0: New economy infrastructure (CGPOWER, BEL, POWERGRID, VA Tech Wabag, Apollo Hospital)
- +0.5: Reinvestment compounders (MCX, Muthoot, HDFC Bank post-ceasefire)
- -1.0: War-specific thesis stocks (GESHIP drops to ~5.5 — freight normalises)
- -1.5: Structurally disrupted by AI (generic IT outsourcing)
- -1.0: Any MF with SEBI international cap breached — flag as no-add even if IER is high
Step 4: Portfolio IER Calculation
Portfolio IER = Σ (holding weight% × adjusted IER)
Calculate:
- Equity book IER
- MF book IER
- Combined IER (weighted by book sizes — e.g., if equity is 37% and MF is 63% of total portfolio)
Step 5: Generate the Dashboard
IER Rating Bands
| Score | Rating |
|---|
| 8.0–10.0 | 🏆 INFLATION ERA CHAMPION |
| 6.5–7.9 | ✅ INFLATION READY |
| 5.0–6.4 | ⚡ TRANSITIONING |
| 3.5–4.9 | ⚠️ ERA MISMATCH |
| 0–3.4 | 🔴 DEFLATION ERA HOLDOVER |
Output format
Read references/dashboard-template.md before generating any HTML. It specifies the exact design tokens, section layout, score bar colors, card styles, table formatting, and conditional rendering rules.
The output is a single self-contained HTML file: campfire-era-report.html
All 10 report sections are rendered in this file. Do not print the report as plaintext in chat.
Sections to include:
- Scores Dashboard — hero score cards with bars and one-line verdict
- Dimension Breakdown — five rows with 120px bars and gap flags
- Holding-by-Holding Scores — full table sorted by IER descending
- Inflation Era Champions — top 3 cards with green left-edge accent
- Era Mismatches — bottom 3 cards with red left-edge accent
- Gap Analysis — one card per dimension below 6.5; "no gaps" card otherwise
- MF Book Deep Dive — (skip if EQUITY-only)
- Dual Scenario — (skip if WAR or CEASEFIRE only)
- The Era Narrative — prose card
- The One Trade — prominent bordered card
After presenting the file, follow with a one-paragraph inline summary: combined IER, rating band, the one trade, and the most important gap dimension (if any).
Step 6: Ceasefire Adjustments (CEASEFIRE or DUAL mode)
Score Drops on Ceasefire
| Holding | IER Change | Reason |
|---|
| GESHIP | -2.5 | War freight premium disappears |
| Gold ETFs / SGBMAY28 | -1.5 | Gold corrects 15-20% on peace |
| MCX | -0.8 | Energy derivative volumes fall |
| MUTHOOTFIN | -0.3 | Gold correction reduces collateral |
| COALINDIA | -0.5 | Energy security narrative weakens |
| OILINDIA | -1.0 | Lower oil price |
Score Rises on Ceasefire
| Holding | IER Change | Reason |
|---|
| HDFCBANK | +1.8 | FII re-entry, maximum re-rating beta |
| INDIGO (re-entry only) | +2.5 | Jet fuel crash → earnings explosion |
| MARUTI | +1.5 | Auto pent-up demand |
| TATA STEEL | +1.2 | Global industrial recovery |
| HINDCOPPER | +1.0 | Industrial demand recovery |
| TITAN | +1.8 | Gold corrects → jewellery volumes explode |
| KALYAN JEWELLERS | +1.5 | Same as Titan |
| APOLLOHOSP | +0.5 | Consumer healthcare recovers |
Ceasefire Neutral
POWERGRID, BEL, HAL, CGPOWER, VA Tech Wabag, IT exporters, pharma exporters — structural, not war-specific.
Step 7: ARJUN Framework (Full Definition)
ARJUN = Adaptive Real-time Judgement for Indian Underlyings and Nifty
ARJUN is a war-context portfolio scoring system designed for the Iran-Hormuz crisis environment (Feb 28, 2026 onwards). It scores every Indian holding on five war-specific dimensions, each 0–10. It is separate from IER — IER measures structural inflation era alignment, ARJUN measures near-term war-context performance. Together they form the complete dual-lens framework.
ARJUN's Five Dimensions
OES — Oil Exposure Score (0 to +10, can be negative)
How does this holding benefit or suffer from oil at $107/bbl?
| Score | Meaning | Examples |
|---|
| +8 to +10 | Direct upstream oil winner — revenues rise with crude | Oil India, ONGC, GESHIP (freight = f(oil disruption)) |
| +5 to +7 | Indirect oil beneficiary | Coal India (substitute energy), MCX (crude derivative volumes) |
| 0 to +4 | Oil-neutral or marginal impact | IT exporters, pharma, gold NBFCs |
| -3 to -1 | Moderate oil cost exposure | Reliance (O2C drag), Tata Steel (energy inputs) |
| -7 to -4 | Severe oil cost exposure, limited pricing power | Aviation, paints, fertilisers, logistics |
| -10 to -8 | Existential oil cost crisis, government-controlled pricing | OMCs (HPCL, BPCL, IOC) losing ₹35/litre diesel |
FDS — FII Dependency Score (0 to 10)
How much does this stock need FII capital to re-rate? Lower is better in war mode (FIIs are selling ₹2 lakh crore).
| Score | Meaning | Examples |
|---|
| 0–2 | No FII dependence — government-contracted, PSU, or DII-owned compounder | Coal India, POWERGRID, BEL, HAL |
| 3–4 | Low FII dependence — strong domestic institutional ownership | Muthoot, MCX, NTPC |
| 5–6 | Moderate FII dependence — FII re-rating helpful but not required | Bharti, TCS, Infosys |
| 7–8 | High FII dependence — valuation driven by FII sentiment | HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, large-cap private banks |
| 9–10 | Entirely FII-dependent — only re-rates when FIIs return | High-PE consumer discretionary, premium fintech |
Note: FDS is inverted for ARJUN composite — a score of 0 (no FII dependence) is WAR POSITIVE.
RSS — Rupee Sensitivity Score (+10 to -10)
Does rupee at ₹96/USD help or hurt this holding?
| Score | Meaning | Examples |
|---|
| +8 to +10 | Dollar earner — every rupee depreciation = direct NAV gain | GESHIP, MON100, MAFANG, Gold ETFs, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma |
| +4 to +7 | Partial dollar exposure — some natural hedge | Tata Steel, Hindalco, Reliance, Navinfluor |
| 0 to +3 | Domestic but can reprice inputs | Coal India, MCX, Bharti, Muthoot |
| -3 to -1 | Domestic revenues, some import exposure | HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI |
| -7 to -4 | Imports significantly, limited pass-through | Paints, electronics assembly, auto components |
| -10 to -8 | Massive importer with no pricing power | Fertilisers, LNG importers, pure import-dependent |
GAS — Geopolitical Alpha Score (0 to 10)
Does India-Pak cold war, Hormuz crisis, or defence supercycle directly drive this stock's earnings?
| Score | Meaning | Examples |
|---|
| 9–10 | Primary earnings driver is geopolitical — order book grows with crisis | HAL (₹2.22L crore order book), BEL, Mazagon Dock, GESHIP |
| 7–8 | Strong geopolitical tailwind — meaningful earnings acceleration | Data Patterns, MTAR Tech, Oil India |
| 4–6 | Moderate — benefits from geopolitical environment indirectly | MCX (war drives volumes), Coal India (energy security) |
| 1–3 | Tangential — crisis is noise, not signal | IT exporters, pharma, FMCG |
| 0 | Zero geopolitical alpha — domestic demand driven | Housing finance, consumer staples, pure retail |
CRS — Ceasefire Risk Score (0 to 10)
How much does this holding suffer when Hormuz reopens and oil falls to $85?
| Score | Meaning | Examples |
|---|
| 9–10 | KILL SWITCH — immediate manual exit required on deal | GESHIP (freight collapses), IndiGo (was kill switch, now exited) |
| 7–8 | High ceasefire risk — position should be reduced on deal | MCX (energy volumes fall), gold ETFs (gold corrects) |
| 4–6 | Moderate ceasefire risk — thesis partly weakens | Muthoot (gold correction), Coal India (energy security narrative weakens) |
| 1–3 | Low ceasefire risk — structural, not war-dependent | POWERGRID, BEL, IT exporters, pharma |
| 0 | Zero ceasefire risk — benefits from peace | HDFC Bank, Maruti, Titan, IndiGo re-entry |
ARJUN Composite Calculation
Step 1: Convert FDS to war-positive form: FDS_WAR = 10 - FDS
Step 2: Normalise OES to 0-10 scale: OES_NORM = (OES + 10) / 2
Step 3: ARJUN_COMPOSITE = (OES_NORM + FDS_WAR + RSS_NORM + GAS) / 4
Where RSS_NORM = (RSS + 10) / 2
Step 4: UNIFIED SCORE = (IER × 0.60) + (ARJUN_COMPOSITE × 0.40)
ARJUN Pre-Scored Key Holdings
| Stock | OES | FDS | RSS | GAS | CRS | ARJUN_C | Notes |
|---|
| GESHIP | +9 | 2 | +10 | 10 | 10 | 9.4 | Maximum war alignment |
| COALINDIA | +6 | 1 | +3 | 5 | 4 | 7.9 | Energy security PSU |
| MCX | +5 | 3 | +3 | 7 | 7 | 7.1 | War volume monopoly |
| MUTHOOTFIN | +2 | 3 | +5 | 4 | 4 | 6.8 | Gold proxy |
| GOLDETFS | +3 | 0 | +10 | 6 | 8 | 8.1 | Hard currency gold |
| SGBMAY28 | +3 | 0 | +10 | 6 | 8 | 8.1 | Tax-free redemption at 2028 maturity — hold to term if present |
| HAL | +3 | 2 | +2 | 10 | 1 | 7.3 | Defence pure play |
| BEL | +2 | 2 | +2 | 9 | 1 | 6.9 | Defence electronics |
| HDFCBANK | -2 | 9 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | Ceasefire play |
| INDIGO | -9 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | KILL SWITCH — exit |
| HPCL/BPCL | -10 | 4 | -6 | 0 | 3 | 0.8 | Uninvestable in war |
| MON100 | +2 | 0 | +10 | 3 | 2 | 7.5 | Dollar hedge |
| BHARTIARTL | +1 | 5 | +2 | 2 | 1 | 5.4 | Domestic compounder |
| POWERGRID | +2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 5.3 | Structural, low war alpha |
Interpretation Matrix (IER × ARJUN)
| IER | ARJUN_C | Unified | Label | Action |
|---|
| ≥7 | ≥7 | ≥7.0 | 🎯 CONVICTION HOLD | Full position, size up if underweight |
| ≥7 | 4–6.9 | 5.8–7.0 | 📅 ERA COMPOUNDER | Hold through war, long-term |
| ≥7 | <4 | <5.8 | 🌅 ERA HOLD / WAR DRAG | Hold for decade, ignore war noise |
| 5–6.9 | ≥7 | 5.8–6.9 | ⚡ WAR BOOST | War inflating score — watch ceasefire |
| 5–6.9 | 4–6.9 | 5.0–6.0 | ⚖️ BALANCED | Neutral — neither era champion nor war star |
| <5 | ≥7 | 4.2–5.8 | ⏰ WAR TRADE ONLY | Exit on ceasefire, not a decade hold |
| <5 | <4 | <4.0 | 🔴 EXIT BOTH ERAS | Wrong for war AND new era — exit now |
Apply this matrix to every holding. The label is the single most actionable output per stock.
Step 8: India-Specific Adjustments
Always apply to Indian portfolios:
- Gold duty floor 15% = permanent +1 CPS for all gold-linked businesses
- DII ₹31,000 crore/month SIP floor = +0.3 EQS for Nifty 50 components
- Rupee at ₹96+ = +1 CPS for all dollar earners
- RBI financial repression = -1 CPS for pure rupee long-duration instruments
- SEBI $7B international MF cap breached = flag all international MF as no-add
Kill Switch Override
Flag explicitly regardless of score:
- INDIGO in war mode → IER override to 2.7, flag EXIT
- GESHIP on ceasefire → flag kill switch active
- OMCs always → uninvestable in war mode, flag explicitly
- SGBMAY28 → if present in portfolio, never sell regardless of IER; note tax-free redemption at 2028 maturity under Indian tax law — applies to any holder
Reference Files
references/dashboard-template.md — HTML layout spec, design tokens, section-by-section rendering rules (read before generating HTML)references/scoring-tables.md — Pre-scored Indian and global stocks (read before scoring)references/era-context.md — Macro evidence base for the new inflationary era
