polymarket-autopilot

name	polymarket-autopilot
description	Paper-trade Polymarket prediction markets — scan for opportunities using TAIL, BONDING, and SPREAD strategies, simulate trades, and track portfolio performance.
metadata	{"openclaw":{"emoji":"📊","requires":{"bins":["uv"]},"os":["darwin","linux"],"install":[{"id":"uv-brew","kind":"brew","formula":"uv","bins":["uv"],"label":"Install uv (brew)"}]}}

Polymarket Autopilot (Paper Trading)

Scan Polymarket prediction markets for opportunities and simulate trades without risking real money. All market data is fetched from public APIs (no API keys or wallet required).

Scan Markets

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/scan_markets.py --strategy all --limit 50

Filter by strategy:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/scan_markets.py --strategy tail --min-volume 10000 --limit 30
uv run {baseDir}/scripts/scan_markets.py --strategy bonding --min-liquidity 5000
uv run {baseDir}/scripts/scan_markets.py --strategy spread --json

Flags: --strategy tail|bonding|spread|all, --limit N, --min-volume N, --min-liquidity N, --json.

Paper Trade

Open a trade (requires token ID from scan output):

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/paper_trade.py \
  --market "Will BTC hit 100k by June?" \
  --token-id <clob_token_id> \
  --direction YES --amount 200 --strategy TAIL

Close a trade by ID:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/paper_trade.py --close 1

List open trades:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/paper_trade.py --list

Reset portfolio:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/paper_trade.py --reset

Starting capital defaults to $10,000. Override with --capital 50000 on first run. Database: ~/.openclaw/workspace/polymarket-paper.db (override with --db).

Portfolio

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py

With live prices (fetches current CLOB midpoints for unrealised P&L):

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py --resolve

JSON output for programmatic use:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py --resolve --format json

Show closed trade history:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py --resolve --history

Strategies

Strategy	Logic	When to use
TAIL	Follow strong trends: probability > 60% or < 40% with volume	Momentum plays on clear favourites or underdogs
BONDING	Contrarian: wide bid-ask spread (>8%) signals overreaction	Buy uncertainty when markets panic
SPREAD	Arbitrage: YES + NO midpoints sum > 1.02	Exploit mispriced complementary outcomes

The scanner detects opportunities; you (or a cron) decide which trades to execute.

Auto-Resolve Settled Markets

Check if any open paper trades have resolved and close them automatically:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/resolve.py

Preview what would be resolved without changing the database:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/resolve.py --dry-run

This enables a fully autonomous cron loop: scan -> trade -> resolve -> report.

Backtest Strategies

Replay strategies against historical closed markets to tune thresholds:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/backtest.py --limit 100 --bet-size 100

Test a specific strategy:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/backtest.py --strategy tail --limit 200

JSON output with full signal details:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/backtest.py --strategy all --limit 150 --json

Shows win rate, average P&L, top wins/losses, and simulated dollar returns per strategy.

News Scanner

Cross-reference breaking news with open Polymarket markets:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/news_scanner.py --limit 50

Custom RSS feeds:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/news_scanner.py --feeds "https://feeds.bbci.co.uk/news/rss.xml,https://rss.nytimes.com/services/xml/rss/nyt/World.xml"

Lower the keyword match threshold for more results:

uv run {baseDir}/scripts/news_scanner.py --min-relevance 1 --json

Default feeds: BBC News, NYT, Reuters, Google News. No API keys required.

Typical Workflow

1. Scan for opportunities: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/scan_markets.py --json
2. Check news for information edge: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/news_scanner.py
3. Open a paper trade: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/paper_trade.py -m "..." -t <id> -d YES -a 100 -s TAIL
4. Monitor: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py --resolve
5. Auto-close settled markets: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/resolve.py
6. Review performance: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py --resolve --history
7. Tune strategies with backtesting: uv run {baseDir}/scripts/backtest.py --limit 200

Cron Setup

Schedule scans every 15 minutes using OpenClaw cron:

cron add "*/15 * * * *" "Scan Polymarket for opportunities and report findings. Use the polymarket-autopilot skill." --name "polymarket-scan"

Auto-resolve settled markets every hour:

cron add "0 * * * *" "Resolve any settled Polymarket paper trades using the polymarket-autopilot skill." --name "polymarket-resolve"

Daily morning summary at 8 AM:

cron add "0 8 * * *" "Show my Polymarket paper portfolio with live prices, resolve any settled trades, and post a summary." --name "polymarket-daily"

Discord Reports

Post portfolio summaries to Discord using a webhook:

curl -X POST "$DISCORD_WEBHOOK_URL" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d "{\"content\": \"$(uv run {baseDir}/scripts/portfolio.py --resolve 2>/dev/null)\"}"

Set DISCORD_WEBHOOK_URL in your environment or openclaw.json.

Notes

• Paper trading only. No real money, no wallet keys, no on-chain transactions.
• Market data comes from Polymarket's public Gamma API and CLOB API (no authentication).
• News feeds are standard RSS/Atom (BBC, NYT, Reuters, Google News) -- no API keys.
• Database is local SQLite at ~/.openclaw/workspace/polymarket-paper.db.
• Scanner makes ~2 API calls per market; use --limit to control scan breadth and rate.
• CLOB prices are real-time midpoints used for entry/exit pricing.
• The agent can compose these scripts freely -- scan, news, trade, resolve, backtest, review.