trade-hypothesis-ideator

name	trade-hypothesis-ideator
description	Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs, and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export pursue cards into strategy.yaml + metadata.json artifacts.

When to Use

• After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
• When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
• To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
• Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria

Prerequisites

• Input JSON bundle with one or more of: trade_log, journal_snippets, market_data, observations
• Python 3.9+ with pyyaml installed
• No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)

Workflow

1. Receive input JSON bundle.
2. Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction.
3. Generate hypotheses with prompts:
   • prompts/system_prompt.md
   • prompts/developer_prompt_template.md (inject {{evidence_summary}})
4. Critique hypotheses with prompts/critique_prompt_template.md.
5. Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails.
6. Optionally export pursue hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.

Scripts

• Pass 1 (evidence summary):

python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --output-dir reports/

• Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):

python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --export-strategies

Output

• hypothesis_cards_<date>.json — Ranked hypothesis cards with verdicts (pursue, revise, discard)
• hypothesis_cards_<date>.md — Human-readable summary with experiment designs and kill criteria
• strategy_<hypothesis_id>.yaml — (Optional) Edge-finder-compatible strategy export for pursue cards
• metadata_<hypothesis_id>.json — (Optional) Provenance metadata for exported strategies

Resources

• references/hypothesis_types.md — Taxonomy of hypothesis patterns (mean-reversion, momentum, event-driven, etc.)
• references/evidence_quality_guide.md — Criteria for rating evidence strength and sample size requirements