top-trades-today

name	top-trades-today
description	Surface the top N actionable trade ideas for today across holdings + watchlist, each with entry, stop, target, R:R and conviction. Use when the user asks "top trades today", "what should I trade today", "best entries right now", "top stock picks", or wants a ranked, decision-ready trade shortlist. Composes get_trade_ideas + crowding + macro guards. One-shot.
requires_profile	true

Top Trades Today (ranked, decision-ready)

Goal

Short ranked list of names worth trading TODAY - held or watchlist - each with explicit entry / stop / target / R:R / conviction. Built on the same scoring engine as the dashboard signals (get_trade_ideas), then gated by crowding + macro catalysts. Designed to be pushed to Telegram each morning.

Stage 0 - Decision Memory (load FIRST)

Before ranking, load prior decisions so verdicts stay consistent across sessions:

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_cross_ticker_lessons with max_lessons=3 - portfolio-level win/loss patterns
• For any name you promote to the list, also load mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_decision_history (ticker=…, max_decisions=5) and mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_reflection (symbol=…, n=3).

Reconciliation rule: if a prior decision exists and your new read flips it, state explicitly WHY it changed (new data / catalyst / price move). Never silently contradict a logged decision - that drift is exactly what this prevents.

How to run

Call get_profile FIRST (accounts, capital - never hardcode). Then in parallel:

1. mcp__aifolimizer__get_trade_ideas with top_n=5, include_watchlist=true, min_risk_reward=1.5
2. mcp__aifolimizer__get_macro_snapshot (regime + scheduled catalysts)
3. mcp__aifolimizer__get_positioning_signals with the symbols returned by step 1 (crowding guard)

Catalyst gate (FIRST - before ranking)

Check macro snapshot for events TODAY (US Eastern): FOMC, CPI, NFP, PCE, GDP advance, VIX > 25. If a major catalyst hits today, prefix the headline ⚠️ CATALYST: <event> @ <time> and add: "Halve intraday size or wait until after the print." Do not suppress the list - annotate it.

Crowding guard (per CLAUDE.md)

For each idea, cross-check get_positioning_signals:

• crowding_label == consensus (score ≥ 70) AND action is BUY/ADD → downgrade conviction one notch, tag consensus-crowded - late-entry risk. Do NOT promote a crowded name to the top slot on a BUY.
• crowding_label == contrarian (score ≤ 30) AND fundamentals/score support → tag contrarian setup (favourable).
• TSX (.TO) names with null crowding → treat as neutral, don't over-weight the absence.

Output structure (≤ 350 words, Telegram-friendly)

Headline

Top N trades · [Regime label] · [catalyst flag or "no catalyst today"]

Ranked ideas (one block per idea, best first)

N. TICKER (held / watch) · ACTION · conviction
   entry ~$X · stop $Y · target $Z · R:R N.N
   why: <one line - the strongest reason>
   flag: <consensus-crowded / contrarian / earnings in Nd / none>

Use the idea's own current_price as entry reference; if entry_timing == acceptable, say "entry acceptable now"; the engine already excludes wait-for-pullback names.

Skipped / thin

One line: how many names scored, how many were actionable, and why the rest dropped (e.g. "12 scored, 4 actionable; rest HOLD/WATCH or R:R < 1.5").

After output - log decisions

For each ranked idea (BUY/ADD/SELL/TRIM), call mcp__aifolimizer__log_recommendation with action, conviction (HIGH/MED/LOW), target_pct + stop_pct (% from entry; entry captured live at call time), 1-line thesis (the "why" line), skill="top-trades-today". Include crowding flag in thesis. Feeds forward win-rate / track-record loop.

Rules

• Direct. No hedging. If get_trade_ideas returns zero ideas, say so plainly: "No actionable setups today - all names HOLD/WATCH or below R:R floor." Do not invent trades.
• Entry/stop/target come straight from get_trade_ideas - do NOT recompute or round differently.
• Respect account context from get_profile for tax framing only; ranking is account-agnostic.
• One-shot - do not chain into another skill unless the user asks. For a deep dive on one name, suggest /stock-analysis TICKER or /adversarial-research TICKER.

Gotchas

• get_trade_ideas already filters wait_pullback and risk_reward < min_risk_reward - don't re-add names it dropped.
• SELL/TRIM ideas can appear (held names) alongside BUY/ADD - label the action clearly; a SELL is a trade too.
• Crypto + ETFs may surface with thin reasons - keep them but note "index/crypto - different dynamics."
• risk_reward may be null for TRIM (target/RR intentionally omitted by the engine) - show stop only, omit R:R, don't treat null as an error.
• Watchlist names have weight 0 - that's expected (not held), not a data gap.