| name | variance-analysis-three-way-comparison-framework |
| description | Sub-skill of variance-analysis: Three-Way Comparison Framework (+3). |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | business |
| type | reference |
| scripts_exempt | true |
Three-Way Comparison Framework (+3)
Three-Way Comparison Framework
| Metric | Budget | Forecast | Actual | Bud Var ($) | Bud Var (%) | Fcast Var ($) | Fcast Var (%) |
|---|
| Revenue | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% | $X | X% |
| COGS | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% | $X | X% |
| Gross Profit | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% | $X | X% |
When to Use Each Comparison
- Actual vs Budget: Annual performance measurement, compensation decisions, board reporting. Budget is set at the beginning of the year and typically not changed.
- Actual vs Forecast: Operational management, identifying emerging issues. Forecast is updated periodically (monthly or quarterly) to reflect current expectations.
- Forecast vs Budget: Understanding how expectations have changed since planning. Useful for identifying planning accuracy issues.
- Actual vs Prior Period: Trend analysis, sequential performance. Useful when budget is not meaningful (new business lines, post-acquisition).
- Actual vs Prior Year: Year-over-year growth analysis, seasonality-adjusted comparison.
Forecast Accuracy Analysis
Track how accurate forecasts are over time to improve planning:
Forecast Accuracy = 1 - |Actual - Forecast| / |Actual|
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) = Average of |Actual - Forecast| / |Actual| across periods
| Period | Forecast | Actual | Variance | Accuracy |
|---|
| Jan | $X | $X | $X (X%) | XX% |
| Feb | $X | $X | $X (X%) | XX% |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Avg | | | MAPE | XX% |
Variance Trending
Track how variances evolve over the year to identify systematic bias:
- Consistently favorable: Budget may be too conservative (sandbagging)
- Consistently unfavorable: Budget may be too aggressive or execution issues
- Growing unfavorable: Deteriorating performance or unrealistic targets
- Shrinking variance: Forecast accuracy improving through the year (normal pattern)
- Volatile: Unpredictable business or poor forecasting methodology
