financial-modeling

name	financial-modeling
description	Build integrated financial models with 3-statement projections, DCF-ready UFCF bridges, working-capital schedules, and debt/interest linkages. Use for income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and DCF input preparation. Scope is three-statement and DCF-ready modeling; PEG-ready packages are handled by growth-stock-valuation.

Financial Modeling Skill

Overview

I help you build integrated 3-statement financial models that link Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement. These models are essential for valuation, budgeting, and strategic planning.

What I can do:

• Build income statement projections
• Create balance sheet forecasts
• Generate cash flow statements
• Model working capital requirements
• Build debt schedules and interest calculations
• Create scenario analysis (base/bull/bear cases)

What I cannot do:

• Access real-time financial data
• Guarantee projection accuracy
• Provide accounting advice
• Replace professional financial analysis

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How to Use Me

Step 1: Provide Historical Data

I need 2-3 years of:

• Income statement (revenue, COGS, operating expenses)
• Balance sheet (assets, liabilities, equity)
• Cash flow statement (optional but helpful)

Step 2: Define Projection Assumptions

Key drivers:

• Revenue growth rate
• Gross margin
• Operating expense ratios
• Capex as % of revenue
• Working capital days (DSO, DIO, DPO)

Step 3: Choose Model Scope

• Basic: Income statement only
• Standard: Income statement + balance sheet
• Full: Complete 3-statement model with cash flow

Research Handoff Mode

When the user provides a research handoff such as <company>_dcf_financial_model_handoff.md, use it as the bridge from investment research to modeling:

• Use a single structured financial data source for the three statements by default. Do not pull Tushare, Eastmoney, AkShare, Wencai, and CSV exports in parallel for routine cross-checking. Fallback to another source only when the selected source fails, is inaccessible, lacks required fields, or has an obvious abnormal value.
• Prefer <company>_facts_core.md and Fact-ID references when available. Do not copy full raw financial statements, announcement lists, Wencai long rows, or Gemini outputs into modeling files.
• If raw CSV files exist, extract only the required narrow fields before reading them into context. Avoid broad text search across *.csv files because long rows can dominate the context window.
• First parse the driver map, evidence grades, historical anchors, and scenario ranges. Do not re-write the investment thesis unless needed to explain a driver.
• Treat these six tables as the preferred structured input: historical anchor table; segment driver table; expense and depreciation table; working-capital table; scenario table; data-gap table. If a table is missing, list it in the data-gap checklist before modeling.
• Separate company facts, consensus/market assumptions, and self-built assumptions. If a field is missing, show it in a data-gap checklist instead of inventing precision.
• Build assumptions in this order: revenue drivers -> gross margin -> operating expenses -> D&A/capex -> working capital days -> tax/interest/debt -> minority interest/investment income -> dividends/financing.
• For each driver, preserve source/evidence grade and state whether it belongs in base case, scenario case, or sensitivity only.
• Output a DCF-ready UFCF bridge with EBIT*(1-Tax)+D&A-Capex-ΔNWC, plus model checks for balance sheet balance, revenue-profit-cash consistency, and working-capital reasonableness.
• For formal DCF calculation, output <company>_dcf_ready_package.md for /Users/a/.codex/skills/dcf-model: Revenue, EBIT, tax rate, D&A, Capex, ΔNWC, UFCF, cash, debt, shares, WACC inputs, terminal assumptions, and source comments.
• PEG-ready input packs belong to $growth-stock-valuation; this skill outputs DCF-ready packages and UFCF bridges.
• Keep DCF-ready packages compact: model fields, assumptions, source comments, Fact-ID references, quality notes, and data gaps only. Do not restate every module's thesis or duplicate the full profit bridge.
• Output modeling inputs, checks, data gaps, and DCF-ready handoff fields. For DCF valuation, hand off DCF-ready inputs through $dcf-valuation-workflow to /Users/a/.codex/skills/dcf-model; final valuation conclusions belong to the valuation stage.

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Model Architecture

Three-Statement Linkages

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    INCOME STATEMENT                         │
│  Revenue → Gross Profit → Operating Income → Net Income     │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────┘
                          │
        Net Income flows to Retained Earnings
                          │
                          ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    BALANCE SHEET                            │
│  Assets = Liabilities + Equity                              │
│  (Must balance via Cash as plug)                            │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────┘
                          │
        Changes in B/S items drive CF Statement
                          │
                          ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                  CASH FLOW STATEMENT                        │
│  Operating CF + Investing CF + Financing CF = Δ Cash        │
│  Ending Cash flows back to Balance Sheet                    │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Formulas

Income Statement Drivers

Revenue = Prior Year × (1 + Growth Rate)
COGS = Revenue × (1 - Gross Margin %)
Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS
SG&A = Revenue × SG&A %
EBITDA = Gross Profit - SG&A
D&A = Prior PP&E × D&A Rate OR Revenue × D&A %
EBIT = EBITDA - D&A
Interest = Avg Debt × Interest Rate
EBT = EBIT - Interest
Taxes = EBT × Tax Rate
Net Income = EBT - Taxes

Balance Sheet Drivers

Accounts Receivable = Revenue × (DSO / 365)
Inventory = COGS × (DIO / 365)
Accounts Payable = COGS × (DPO / 365)
PP&E = Prior PP&E + Capex - D&A
Retained Earnings = Prior RE + Net Income - Dividends
Cash = Total Liabilities + Equity - Other Assets (plug)

Cash Flow Statement

Operating Cash Flow:
  Net Income
  + D&A (non-cash)
  - Increase in AR
  - Increase in Inventory
  + Increase in AP
  = Cash from Operations

Investing Cash Flow:
  - Capex
  = Cash from Investing

Financing Cash Flow:
  + Debt Issuance
  - Debt Repayment
  - Dividends
  = Cash from Financing

Net Change in Cash = CFO + CFI + CFF

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Output Format

# Financial Model: [Company Name]

**Projection Period**: [Years]
**Base Year**: [Year]
**Currency**: [USD/CNY/etc.]

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## Key Assumptions

| Driver | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Revenue Growth | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| Gross Margin | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| SG&A % Revenue | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| Capex % Revenue | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| DSO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| DIO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| DPO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |

---

## Income Statement Projection

| ($M) | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **Revenue** | | | | | | |
| Growth % | | | | | | |
| COGS | | | | | | |
| **Gross Profit** | | | | | | |
| Gross Margin % | | | | | | |
| SG&A | | | | | | |
| **EBITDA** | | | | | | |
| EBITDA Margin % | | | | | | |
| D&A | | | | | | |
| **EBIT** | | | | | | |
| Interest Expense | | | | | | |
| **EBT** | | | | | | |
| Taxes | | | | | | |
| **Net Income** | | | | | | |
| Net Margin % | | | | | | |

---

## Balance Sheet Projection

| ($M) | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **ASSETS** | | | | | | |
| Cash | | | | | | |
| Accounts Receivable | | | | | | |
| Inventory | | | | | | |
| **Current Assets** | | | | | | |
| PP&E (net) | | | | | | |
| Other Assets | | | | | | |
| **Total Assets** | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| **LIABILITIES** | | | | | | |
| Accounts Payable | | | | | | |
| Short-term Debt | | | | | | |
| **Current Liabilities** | | | | | | |
| Long-term Debt | | | | | | |
| **Total Liabilities** | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| **EQUITY** | | | | | | |
| Common Stock | | | | | | |
| Retained Earnings | | | | | | |
| **Total Equity** | | | | | | |
| **Total L + E** | | | | | | |

✓ Balance Check: Assets = Liabilities + Equity

---

## Cash Flow Statement

| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **Operating Activities** | | | | | |
| Net Income | | | | | |
| D&A | | | | | |
| Change in AR | | | | | |
| Change in Inventory | | | | | |
| Change in AP | | | | | |
| **Cash from Operations** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Investing Activities** | | | | | |
| Capex | | | | | |
| **Cash from Investing** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Financing Activities** | | | | | |
| Debt Changes | | | | | |
| Dividends | | | | | |
| **Cash from Financing** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Net Change in Cash** | | | | | |
| Beginning Cash | | | | | |
| **Ending Cash** | | | | | |

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## Key Metrics Summary

| Metric | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|--------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| Revenue Growth | | | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | | | |
| EBITDA Margin | | | | | | |
| Net Margin | | | | | | |
| ROE | | | | | | |
| Debt/Equity | | | | | | |
| FCF | | | | | | |

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Tips for Better Results

1. Provide clean historical data in a consistent format
2. Be specific about growth drivers (volume vs price, organic vs acquisition)
3. Specify industry context for appropriate benchmarks
4. Ask for scenario analysis to understand range of outcomes
5. Request sensitivity tables for key assumptions

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Limitations

• Projections are only as good as the assumptions
• Cannot model complex corporate structures
• Does not account for one-time items automatically
• Simplified tax calculations
• Currency assumed constant (no FX modeling)

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Built by the Claude Office Skills community. Contributions welcome!