crypto-contract-trading

name	crypto-contract-trading
description	Comprehensive cryptocurrency contract trading analysis: technical indicators, multi-strategy backtesting with real market data, event-driven analysis, risk management, and position sizing for BTC/ETH contracts on Binance/OKX/Gate.io. Trigger: crypto analysis, backtest, long or short, ETH/BTC analysis, technical indicators, position sizing, stop loss, trading strategy, or Chinese equivalents like contract trading, technical analysis, backtesting, long/short, position management.
version	1.0.0

Crypto Contract Trading Analysis

Comprehensive skill for cryptocurrency futures/perpetual contract trading analysis, combining technical analysis, event-driven frameworks, and risk management from classic investment literature.

Data Acquisition

Priority Data Sources (tested from China mainland)

1. Gate.io API (primary, reliable):

   • Daily: https://www.gateio.ws/api/v4/spot/candlesticks?currency_pair={SYMBOL}_USDT&interval=1d&limit=120
   • 4h: change interval=4h&limit=200
   • Format: [timestamp, vol_quote, close, high, low, open, vol_base, is_closed]
   • WARNING: Non-standard field order (close=index 2, open=index 5)

2. Alternative.me (sentiment): https://api.alternative.me/fng/?limit=30

3. Binance/CoinGecko/CryptoCompare: Often BLOCKED from China. Try first, fall back to Gate.io.

Data Processing

Save raw JSON. Verify: candle count, date range, first/last price, 7d/14d/30d changes.

Technical Indicators (compute ALL)

Trend: SMA(5,10,20,60), EMA(12,26), MACD(12,26,9), Bollinger(20,2), ADX(14) Momentum: RSI(6,14), KDJ(9,3,3) Volume: 5d/20d ratio, Open Interest, Funding Rate Volatility: ATR(14), daily/annualized vol

MA arrangement check: perfect bearish (MA5<MA10<MA20<MA60) or bullish.

Signal Scoring (-2 to +2 per dimension, total -10 to +10)

• MA System: price vs all MAs, alignment
• RSI: <40 bearish, >55 bullish, <30 contrarian bullish
• MACD: cross direction + histogram expanding/contracting
• Bollinger: above/below midline, extreme bands
• Trend: 7d + 30d change direction
• Sentiment: Extreme Fear <15 = contrarian bullish (+1)

Score <= -4: SHORT | -1 to -3: Cautious SHORT | >= +4: LONG | +1 to +3: Cautious LONG | 0: Wait

Multi-Strategy Backtesting

Always test ALL six strategies:

1. MA Cross (5/20): Golden/death cross signals
2. RSI Mean Reversion: RSI<30 long, >70 short, exit at 55/45
3. MACD+BB Combo: MACD cross + price near BB band
4. Trend Follow (MA20+RSI): Price vs MA20 + RSI vs 50
5. BB Mean Reversion: Touch bands, exit at middle
6. Buy & Hold: Baseline

Parameters: $10K initial, 0.1% taker fee. Report: return, trades, win rate, max DD, profit factor.

Key Insight

Win rate alone is misleading. A 25% win rate with 3:1 R:R is profitable. Always report profit factor and max drawdown.

Event-Driven Analysis

Event Types & Response

• Regulatory (SEC, bans): Extreme impact. Pre-position, follow momentum.
• Macro (Fed, CPI): High. Rate cuts favor risk assets.
• Project (upgrades, partnerships): Medium. Buy rumor, sell news.
• Market Structure (unlocks, whale moves): High. Monitor on-chain.
• Black Swan (exchange collapse): Extreme. Only defend via position sizing.

Sentiment Signals

• Fear & Greed <15 = contrarian bullish; >80 = contrarian bearish
• Long/Short Ratio <0.8 crowded short; >1.5 crowded long
• Funding Rate extreme = potential reversal
• "Crypto is dead" narrative = potential bottom

On-Chain (crypto-specific)

• MVRV Z-Score red zone = overvalued
• Exchange net flow: inflows = selling pressure, outflows = accumulation
• Whale transfers to exchanges = potential dump

Risk Management

Per-Trade Rules

Parameter	Conservative	Standard	Aggressive
Single trade risk	0.5-1%	1-2%	2-5%
Total position limit	20%	40%	60%
Leverage	2-5x	5-10x	10-20x
Daily max loss	2%	5%	10%

Stop-Loss Methods

1. Fixed %: Simple but ignores volatility
2. ATR-based (recommended): 1.5-3x ATR, adapts to market conditions
3. Technical level: Beyond key support/resistance
4. Trailing stop: Move 1 ATR forward per 1 ATR profit

Position Sizing

Position Size = (Capital x Risk%) / (Entry - StopLoss)
Kelly: f* = (p x b - q) / b — use Half-Kelly in practice

Drawdown Control

• Daily loss >= 5%: STOP trading
• Weekly loss >= 10%: Reduce to 50%
• Monthly loss >= 20%: Clear all, review strategy
• Peak drawdown >= 30%: Half position until 90% recovery

Market Environment Strategy Selection

Environment	Identify	Strategy	Position
Strong uptrend	ADX>25, bullish MAs	Trend follow, buy dips	80-100%
Strong downtrend	ADX>25, bearish MAs	Trend follow short	60-80%
Wide oscillation	ADX<20, expanding BB	BB mean reversion	40-60%
Narrow oscillation	ADX<15, contracting BB	Wait for breakout	Clear
Extreme volatility	>10% daily vol	Strict stops, low leverage	20-30%

Pre-Trade Checklist

1. Macro clear? (no major news in 4h)
2. Trend confirmed daily + weekly?
3. 2+ independent indicators agree?
4. Risk/reward >= 1:2?
5. Stop-loss set?
6. Position within risk rules?
7. Today loss < daily limit?
8. Emotionally stable?

Contract-Specific Risks

• Liquidation: Never exceed 10x, always set stop-loss
• Wick/Flash crash: Avoid trading during major news, use limit orders
• Exchange risk: Distribute across platforms
• Funding rate: Monitor for hidden holding costs
• Liquidity: Only trade majors (BTC/ETH)

Report Output Format

1. Price Overview (current, changes, 120d range)
2. Technical Indicators (all with signals)
3. Signal Scoring Matrix (total score + verdict)
4. Backtest Results Table (all strategies compared)
5. Best Strategy Trade Log (trade-by-trade)
6. Risk Metrics (vol, VaR, position sizing)
7. Recommendation (entry, stop, targets, R:R)
8. Conflicting Signals (bull vs bear side by side)

Classic Reading List

Book	Author	Core Value
Japanese Candlestick Charting	Steve Nison	K-line patterns
Technical Analysis of Financial Markets	John Murphy	Comprehensive TA
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator	Edwin Lefevre	Trading philosophy
The Alchemy of Finance	George Soros	Reflexivity theory
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom	Van Tharp	Position sizing
Way of the Turtle	Curtis Faith	Systematic trading
Trading for a Living	Alexander Elder	Triple screen system
Market Wizards	Jack Schwager	Top trader interviews
The Black Swan	Nassim Taleb	Extreme risk philosophy
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends	Edwards & Magee	Chart patterns

Pitfalls

• Binance API often blocked from China, use Gate.io fallback
• Python Chinese characters on Windows may garble (GBK encoding), use numeric data
• Generated data acceptable only when all real APIs fail; always disclose source
• Mean reversion fails in persistent trends, never use as sole strategy
• RSI<30 does NOT mean immediate bounce in crypto
• Always include past performance disclaimer
• Backtest win rate alone is meaningless, report profit factor and max drawdown

Verification

1. Data source confirmed (print API sample)
2. All indicators computed (no None at current bar)
3. Backtest final capital matches trade PnL sequence
4. Signal score arithmetic correct
5. Stop-loss/target within ATR range