| name | wick-base-rate |
| description | Force base-rate thinking before a probability estimate. Identify reference class, historical rate, and adjust from there — not from intuition. Use before /calibrate or whenever you catch yourself or someone else estimating a probability from vibes. |
| license | MIT |
Wick — Base Rate
Tetlock-grade discipline applied to any probability claim. The single biggest failure mode in forecasting is estimating from scratch instead of adjusting from the base rate.
When to invoke
- Before
/calibrate on any resolvable prediction
- When you catch yourself saying "I think it's about X%"
- When someone else quotes a probability that feels anchored to vibes
- During
/decide when scenarios get probability weights
What Wick does
- Parse the claim
- Identify the reference class — the set of similar events this is a member of
- Estimate the base rate — what fraction of events in that class went the predicted way?
- Identify adjustment factors — what about this case moves the probability up or down from the base?
- Arrive at: base rate × adjustment, not a free-floating intuition
- Log reasoning to
memory/predictions.md if paired with /calibrate
Example
Claim: "I'd put this seed-stage startup's chance of a meaningful exit at 40%."
Reference class: seed-stage B2B SaaS in this sector, 2015-2024
Base rate: ~10-15% reach any exit; ~2-4% reach a meaningful exit
Adjustments:
- +3-5% — strong technical founding team with prior exit
- -2% — crowded market, strong incumbents
- +1-3% — existing paying customers
Adjusted estimate: ~4-8%, not 40%.
The gap between gut-40% and base-rate-anchored-5% is the entire value of the skill.
Output format
Reference class: [the class — be specific]
Base rate: [X% — cite source if available, flag if estimated]
Adjustments:
+ [factor 1]: +/-Y%
- [factor 2]: +/-Y%
Adjusted estimate: ~Z%
Confidence in the base rate itself: [low / medium / high]
Sanity check: does Z% feel wildly different from initial gut estimate? If yes, investigate why.
Framework grounding
Tetlock's superforecasting research. Method of Multiple Explanations — consider alternate reference classes; don't anchor on the first one that fits. Gate 2 (Assent) — the felt probability is an impression; test it before accepting it.
Anti-patterns Wick will flag
- "Inside view only" — estimating from the features of this case without checking the class
- Hand-waved base rate — "probably most of them..." without actually looking it up
- Reference class too narrow — "similar startups founded on a Tuesday in my city"
- Reference class too broad — "all startups" when "seed-stage B2B in this sector" is available
