risk-surfacing

name	risk-surfacing
description	Deal-risk radar: synthesizes field data, vault notes, and calendar signals to flag relationship decay, silent stakeholders, and looming threats. Proactive early-warning system, not a document compiler. Chains with pipeline-hygiene-triage and handoff-readiness-validation for weekly pipeline review; chains with mcem-diagnostics for full deal triage. Triggers: deal risk, risk radar, threat flag, warning signal, silent stakeholder, relationship decay, early warning, flag risks, what risks.
argument-hint	Provide opportunityId or accountId to scope the risk scan

Purpose

Synthesizes signals from CRM, M365 (WorkIQ), and vault to surface execution, relationship, and delivery risks proactively — before they escalate into pipeline or customer impact.

Freedom Level

Medium — Risk classification requires multi-source judgment; signal collection is tool-based.

Trigger

• Any role requests risk review or account health check
• Scheduled hygiene cadence for proactive risk surfacing
• Pre-commit or pre-governance risk preparation

Flow

1. CRM signals — Call msx:crm_get_record on opportunity + msx:get_milestones({ opportunityId, statusFilter: 'active', format: 'triage', includeTasks: true }) for milestone state pre-classified by urgency with inline tasks.
2. M365 signals — Call ask_work_iq with scoped query (apply WorkIQ scoping skill) for communication recency, engagement frequency, and sentiment.
3. Vault signals — If vault is available, call oil:get_vault_context() for customer notes, prior risk flags, and relationship history.
4. Classify risks by type and severity (see taxonomy below).
5. Generate risk summary with recommended mitigations.

Risk Taxonomy

Risk Type	Signal Sources	Example
Execution	CRM milestone dates vs today; task completion rate	Milestone overdue by >14 days
Relationship	M365 communication gap; sentiment shift	No customer contact in 30+ days
Pipeline	Opportunity age vs stage; stalled progression	Stage 2 for >60 days
Delivery	Milestone status distribution; at-risk count	>30% milestones at msp_milestonestatus = 861980001
Commitment	Commit recommendation vs evidence	Committed without delivery date
Cross-role	Missing role engagement per stage model	No CSAM activity on Stage 4 opp

Severity Classification

• Critical: Evidence of active customer impact or imminent deadline miss
• High: Structural gap that will escalate without intervention within 2 weeks
• Medium: Pattern suggests risk but no immediate trigger
• Low: Informational — monitor in next cadence

Decision Logic

• Cross-reference ≥2 mediums for each risk (CRM confirms signal, M365 provides evidence, or vault provides history)
• Single-medium risk → flag medium gap, present with lower confidence
• Route each risk to the accountable role for the current stage
• Critical risks → escalation recommendation with minimum intervention

Output Schema

• risk_items: list of risks with type, severity, evidence_sources, accountable_role
• medium_coverage: which mediums were queryable and which were not
• recommended_mitigations: specific actions per risk with skill references
• next_action: names role-appropriate skill for highest-severity risk