rpg-balance-analysis

name	rpg-balance-analysis
description	Use when evaluating game balance in tabletop roleplaying games, especially when the task requires deep analytical and psychological analysis of game theory, player expectations, GM expectations, choice pressure, fairness, lethality, spotlight balance, and perceived versus actual balance.

RPG Balance Analysis

Use this skill when the question is not just "is it strong?" but "how will this feel, how will players use it, and what burden will it put on the GM and campaign?"

What To Analyze

Always evaluate balance across four separate lenses:

1. Mathematical balance
   • odds
   • expected value
   • risk and reward
   • frequency of use
2. Perceived balance
   • what feels fair or unfair
   • what feels powerful or weak regardless of math
   • what creates resentment, regret, or false hope
3. Table balance
   • spotlight share
   • GM load
   • rules memory burden
   • whether one player can dominate procedure or fiction
4. Campaign balance
   • long-term incentives
   • recovery loops
   • attrition pacing
   • scaling over many sessions

Psychological Analysis

Check the gap between what the system rewards and what people expect it to reward.

Evaluate:

• player fantasy versus actual payoff
• whether choices are legible before commitment
• whether failure feels earned or arbitrary
• whether success feels satisfying or merely efficient
• whether the GM is forced into soft correction to keep the game humane
• whether the system creates trap options, bully options, or stale dominant lines

Game Theory Checks

Look for:

• dominant strategies
• degenerate loops
• false choices
• kingmaking incentives
• information asymmetry problems
• incentive collisions between individual and party goals
• mechanics that reward anti-social but optimal play
• mechanics that rely on GM mercy to remain fun

GM And Player Expectations

Separate these explicitly:

• what players expect the rule to let them do
• what the GM expects the rule to cost or constrain
• what the text actually produces at the table

If those three do not match, the rule is unstable even if the numbers are acceptable.

Recommended Output Shape

When answering, organize findings like this:

1. What the rule rewards
2. What players will probably believe it rewards
3. What the GM will likely need to manage
4. Actual balance risks
5. Perception risks
6. Suggested corrections

Practical Standards

• Do not confuse harshness with good balance.
• Do not confuse realism with good balance.
• Do not assume a mathematically fair rule will feel fair.
• Do not assume a fun edge case is safe at campaign scale.
• Prefer designs that are robust without constant GM intervention.

Repo-Specific Use

When using this skill inside the Tales of the Old West 2E repo, ground the analysis in the actual manuscript files in corebook/ before making claims about balance.