shapeupbetting

name	shapeupBetting
description	Use when: running or participating in a Shape Up betting table, evaluating pitches for the next cycle, setting appetite, sizing teams, or deciding which pitches to bet on.
type	reference
version	1.0
license	MIT

Shape Up — Betting Table

Skill metadata: version "1.0"; tags [shapeup, betting-table, product-management]; recommended tools [].

The betting table is the decision point before each cycle. A small group (typically senior leaders or decision-makers) reviews the available pitches and decides which ones to bet cycle time on.

When to use

• Running or participating in a Shape Up betting table
• Evaluating pitches for the next cycle, setting appetite, or deciding which pitches to bet on

When NOT to use

• When writing a new pitch — prefer shapeupPitching
• When managing in-cycle work — prefer shapeupCycleWork

What Gets Bet

Only pitches go to the betting table — not ideas, tasks, or backlogs. A pitch must satisfy the five-element structure before it is eligible.

Betting Table Process

1. Review available pitches — read each pitch before the meeting, not during.
2. Evaluate appetite fit — does the team have the capacity to build this in the stated appetite?
3. Assess risk — are the rabbit holes addressed? Is the scope bounded?
4. Decide — bet or don't bet. No partial bets, no "let's see how it goes."
5. Assign a team — name the designer and programmer(s) for each bet.
6. Set start date — cycles start on a fixed date, not "when ready."

What Happens to Unbetted Pitches

Unbetted pitches are not queued. They expire. If the problem is still worth solving, the pitch can be revised and re-submitted for a future betting table. This is intentional: it keeps the table from accumulating stale work.

Appetite Setting Rules

Appetite	When to use
Small batch (1-2 weeks)	Well-understood problems, small teams, low-risk scope
Big batch (6 weeks)	Complex problems requiring sustained focus; one team per bet

Do not split a 6-week appetite into two 3-week chunks. Either it fits in 6 weeks or it needs to be shaped differently.

Betting Table Anti-Patterns

• Carrying work over from the previous cycle — re-pitch and re-bet instead.
• Betting on an unfinished pitch — "we'll figure it out during the cycle" is not a bet.
• Multiple bets for one team — each team gets one bet per cycle.
• Betting on a backlog item — backlogs are not pitches; shape the problem first.

Team Sizing

Shape Up teams are small: typically one designer and one or two programmers per bet. Larger teams signal that the problem is not well enough shaped or scoped.

Verify

• Only pitches with all five elements at the table
• Bets recorded with team size and cycle time; unbet pitches explicitly declined rather than deferred