exit-or-double-down

name	exit-or-double-down
description	This skill should be used when the user asks "should we exit this business," "is this worth continuing to fund," "do a portfolio pruning review," or needs an explicit exit/hold/double-down call on a unit — with sunk-cost reasoning named directly when it appears.
allowed-tools	Read, Grep, Glob
metadata	{"version":"0.3.0","owner":"corporate-strategy practice","review_cadence":"quarterly","work_shape":"option-evaluation","permission_tier":"advisory","output_class":"draft-for-review","sourcing_policy":"volatile-facts-must-be-sourced"}

Exit or Double Down

When to use

Portfolio pruning — explicit exit/hold/double-down with blank-page test first and sunk-cost reasoning named when it appears.

What this skill does not do

• Does not treat sunk cost as forward evidence — quoted and set aside.
• Does not default to HOLD — requires justification + kill criteria.
• Does not invent financials — INPUT NEEDED.
• Does not name vague approver — routing per profile.

Preconditions

Input	If missing
Org + corporate-strategy profiles	practice-setup or [PROVISIONAL]
Unit scope and decision forum	Ask

Provisional mode

Generic exit criteria; [PROVISIONAL] on thresholds.

Trust spine

• Strategic advice vs. support (mandatory): CALL is recommendation; named forum approves.
• Per trust-conventions; GATE before board/IC finals.

Workflow

1. Orient — unit, forum, evidence, time pressure.
2. Blank-page test first — enter today at this investment?
3. Sunk-cost detection — quote patterns, set aside.
4. Exit criteria check — structural decline, capital destruction, growth odds.
5. Double-down criteria — position, leadership path, under-resourcing.
6. CALL: EXIT | HOLD | DOUBLE DOWN — forward rationale only.
7. Kill criteria if HOLD.
8. Approval routing per profile.
9. GATE if board-ready.

Output format

CONFIDENCE: [...]
UNIT: [...]
BLANK-PAGE TEST: [...]
SUNK-COST CHECK: [...]
EXIT CRITERIA: [table]
DOUBLE-DOWN CRITERIA: [table]
CALL: [...]
KILL CRITERIA (if HOLD): [...]
APPROVAL ROUTING: [...]

Worked example

Input: Legacy print unit, "we've spent $200M already" cited.

Excerpt: Blank-page: no. Sunk-cost quoted and set aside. EXIT criteria met on structural decline; CALL EXIT [review].

Quality checks before delivering

• Blank-page before other evidence
• Sunk cost named if present
• Hold justified with kill criteria
• Approver named

Propose profile update

When a stable convention surfaces during this run (thresholds, naming, tone, output format, or recurring corrections), propose a profile update: show the exact diff against ~/.claude/plugins/config/claude-for-strategy/corporate-strategy/CLAUDE.md (org-wide facts go to org-profile.md), ask for confirmation, and write only on yes. Only /corporate-strategy:practice-setup auto-applies a full profile write.

Outputs

Follows plugin CLAUDE.md § Outputs. Next: IC exit case, allocate-resources for double-down sizing.