stock-thesis

name	stock-thesis
description	Investment thesis builder for a stock. Use when the user asks to build a thesis, write up an investment case, outline bull/bear cases, or identify catalysts for a stock.

Build a complete investment thesis in the format a hedge fund PM would want to read:

SETUP (2 sentences): Why is this opportunity available? What does the market misunderstand?

BULL CASE (3 bullets): The specific things that must go right. Price target and timeline.

BASE CASE (3 bullets): Steady-state assumptions. Price target. Expected return vs S&P.

BEAR CASE (3 bullets): What kills the thesis. Maximum expected drawdown. Is it recoverable?

KEY CATALYSTS (ordered by probability × impact):

1. [catalyst] — [timeline] — [expected price impact]
2. [catalyst] — [timeline] — [expected price impact]
3. [catalyst] — [timeline] — [expected price impact]

POSITION SIZING SIGNAL: High / Medium / Low conviction. Why.

EXIT CRITERIA: What would make you sell regardless of price?