| name | industry-research-mckinsey |
| description | Conduct rigorous, McKinsey-style industry / sector research and produce a structured research report. Use when the user says /industry-research-mckinsey or asks to research an industry/sector/market/value chain, wants market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM), competitive landscape, value-chain / industry-chain analysis, profit pools, demand-supply dynamics, industry drivers, or trend/outlook analysis, or asks for a 行业研究 / 产业研究 / 行业报告 / 赛道分析 / 投研报告 / industry report / sector deep-dive / market analysis. Also fires when the user wants to find supply bottlenecks, pricing-power chokepoints, or the source of excess returns (超额收益) along a value chain (the 产业投资人 / bottleneck lens). Bilingual: follows the user's language. Do NOT use for company-only financial modeling unrelated to an industry, or for pure document formatting. |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| author | maneai |
| category | research |
| user_invocable | true |
| metadata | {"short-description":"McKinsey-method industry research with a bottleneck / excess-return investing lens (bilingual)"} |
Industry Research — McKinsey Method (麦肯锡式行业/产业研究)
What this skill does
Produces a structured, hypothesis-driven industry research report built on the
McKinsey problem-solving method, fused with an industry-investor "bottleneck" lens
(find where supply is scarce while demand already exists — the real source of excess
returns / 超额收益, rather than chasing hype / 风口).
The skill is bilingual: detect the user's language from their request and write the
report and section headings in that language (中文 or English). Keep proper nouns,
ticker-like names, and standard framework names recognizable in both.
Core principle (读懂这一条就够了)
找瓶颈，不是找风口。 The excess return lives at the chokepoint of a value chain:
the node where demand is already present but supply is structurally scarce, so that
node holds pricing power. Map the chain, locate the chokepoint before institutional
money rotates in, and you have a thesis. Chasing the hottest, largest, most-crowded part
of the market ("the model", "the風口") is following crowd sentiment, not finding edge.
This principle is operationalized in references/bottleneck-investing-lens.md. It is the
distinctive module of this skill and should always be applied when the user's intent is
investment-oriented (赛道/投研/选股/产业链). For neutral strategic research it becomes an
optional "Where does value concentrate?" section.
When to ask before you run
Before producing the full report, confirm scope only if these are unclear — otherwise
infer sensible defaults and state them:
- Subject & boundary — which industry/sub-sector, geography, and time horizon?
- Purpose — strategic/market-entry research, or investment thesis (changes how heavily
the bottleneck lens is weighted)?
- Depth & length — quick scan (2–3 pages) vs. deep-dive (10+ pages)?
- Output format — Markdown (default), Word (.docx via the
docx skill), or slides
(.pptx via the pptx skill)?
If the user gave enough to proceed, do not stall — pick defaults (their language, both
strategic + bottleneck lens, ~6–8 page Markdown deep-dive) and note them in one line.
Workflow (执行流程)
Work top-down and hypothesis-first — the McKinsey way. Do NOT data-dump then summarize.
Step 0 — Frame the question (MECE issue tree)
State the central question, break it into a MECE issue tree, and write 2–4 starting
hypotheses you will try to confirm or kill. Everything downstream serves these.
See references/mckinsey-frameworks.md §1–2.
Step 1 — Gather evidence (research)
Use WebSearch + web_fetch (and any connected data MCPs). Triangulate every key number
from ≥2 sources. Prefer primary sources: regulators, statistical bureaus, company filings
(10-K/年报/招股书), industry associations, trade press. Log source + date for each material
claim — these become citations. See references/data-sources.md for where to look.
Step 2 — Size the market (TAM / SAM / SOM)
Do both top-down and bottom-up sizing and reconcile the gap. Show the formula and every
assumption. State the CAGR and what drives it. See references/mckinsey-frameworks.md §3.
Step 3 — Map the value chain / industry chain (价值链/产业链)
Lay out the chain end to end (upstream → midstream → downstream). For each node estimate
value-add, margin, concentration (HHI / top-N share), and who has pricing power. This
produces the profit pool. See references/mckinsey-frameworks.md §4.
Step 4 — Structure & competition
Apply Porter's Five Forces and PESTEL for drivers; profile the key players and
market structure (fragmented vs. consolidated). See references/mckinsey-frameworks.md §5–6.
Step 5 — Apply the bottleneck lens (核心增值模块)
Walk the chain and find the chokepoint: node with scarce/constrained supply + present
demand + high switching cost + pricing power. Trace demand upstream until supply gets
scarce (the video's "AI → not the model → … → laser chips → ever scarcer supply" move).
Assess timing: is institutional money already in, or is this ahead of the rotation?
Full procedure + scorecard in references/bottleneck-investing-lens.md.
Step 6 — Synthesize (Pyramid Principle)
Lead with the answer first, then supporting arguments, then evidence. Every section must
end with a "So what?" — the implication, not just the fact. Add scenarios (bull/base/
bear) and explicit risks/disconfirming evidence. See references/mckinsey-frameworks.md §7.
Step 7 — Assemble the report
Fill assets/report-template.md in the user's language. Then:
- Markdown → write the
.md directly to the output folder.
- Word → read
docx SKILL.md and build the .docx.
- Slides → read
pptx SKILL.md and build the deck.
Always end with a Sources section (Title — publisher — date — URL).
Step 8 — Verify (do not skip)
Re-check every headline number against its sources, confirm top-down vs. bottom-up sizing
reconcile, and stress-test the central thesis with the strongest counter-argument. Flag any
figure you could not corroborate as [unverified] rather than dropping or guessing it.
Quality bar (麦肯锡标准)
- MECE — no overlaps, no gaps in any breakdown.
- Hypothesis-driven — conclusions stated up front, then defended.
- So-what discipline — every chart/number carries an implication.
- Quantified — ranges and assumptions shown, not vague adjectives.
- Triangulated & cited — material claims sourced ≥2x, dated.
- Falsifiable — name what would prove the thesis wrong.
Anti-patterns to avoid
- Data-dumping then a thin summary (bottom-up storytelling).
- Chasing the most-hyped node and calling it a thesis (跟风口 ≠ 研究).
- Single-source numbers presented as fact.
- Five Forces / PESTEL as a filled-in checklist with no "so what".
- Burying the answer at the end.
Reference files
references/mckinsey-frameworks.md — issue trees, MECE, market sizing, value chain,
profit pools, Five Forces, PESTEL, Pyramid Principle, scenarios.references/bottleneck-investing-lens.md — the 产业投资人 bottleneck method, chokepoint
scorecard, upstream-tracing, institutional-rotation timing.references/data-sources.md — where to find credible industry data (global + China).assets/report-template.md — the report skeleton to fill in.
