equity-research-update

name

equity-research-update

description

Test an existing single-stock pitch against new information (quarterly earnings, investor day, catalyst event, periodic review) and update the original memo in place. Companion to equity-research-customised-process — does NOT build new pitches from scratch. Use when the user says "update [TICKER] after [event]", "post-earnings on [TICKER]", "review [TICKER] after investor day", "is [TICKER] still my view", "refresh [TICKER]", or "periodic review of [TICKER]". For initial coverage of a new name, use equity-research-customised-process instead.

Equity Research — Update (Companion to Thesis-First)

Test an existing pitch against new information, decide what changed, and update the original memo in place. The original equity-research-customised-process builds pitches from zero; this skill maintains them through the rest of their life.

Output: an updated [TICKER]_pitch.pdf (in-place edit of the original) with a new row in the Changelog appendix. On rare direction reversals, the old PDF is archived and a new primary published.

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Core operating principles

Principle 1: Inherit, don't relax, the parent skill's discipline

This skill is downstream of equity-research-customised-process. Everything from that skill's anti-patterns (no fabricated numbers, no fake precision, cited sources only, killing-conditions are sacred) applies here, often more strictly — the post-event moment is exactly when KCs are tested and when fabrication risk peaks.

Principle 2: The three-test result drives the action; no upfront tier

The skill does not ask the user "pick light/medium/heavy effort." The three-test (pillars / killing conditions / load-bearing magnitude) is run first; its result determines the recommended action. User confirms or pushes back. Effort follows from what the new data actually conveys, not from a pre-committed budget.

Principle 3: Update the original PDF in place; archive only on direction reversal

The archive philosophy is one always-current document per pitch. Refinements edit [TICKER]_pitch.pdf directly and append a row to the Changelog appendix. Git history of the markdown source IS the audit trail. Only direction reversals (LONG → PASS/SHORT or pitch closure) trigger archive-and-replace, because at that point it's a fundamentally different view, not an evolution.

Principle 4: Never introduce new pillars via an update

Pillars come from the original Phase 6→8 asymmetry hunt + direction commit. New information can CONFIRM, INVALIDATE, or be SILENT on existing pillars — it cannot spawn a new one through an update. If new info points to a missing pillar, that's a signal to consider a HEAVY rebuild via the original skill, not to back-fill via this one.

Principle 5: Q&A interludes — every step is a checkpoint

Same as the parent skill. After each step, pause with explicit prompt:

"Step N complete. Output: [path]. Questions / edits, or 'continue' to advance."

User-driven cadence; never auto-advance.

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When to invoke

Use this skill when there's a specific new information event and you have an existing pitch under coverage:

Event type	Trigger phrase
Earnings	"update SPOT after Q2 print" / "post-earnings on SPOT"
Investor day	"review SPOT after investor day" / "SPOT capital markets day update"
Catalyst	"SPOT update on UMG ruling" / "catalyst note on SPOT"
Periodic review	"periodic review of SPOT" / "is SPOT still my view"

Do NOT use this skill for:

• Initial coverage of a name → use equity-research-customised-process
• Pre-event scenarios (will they beat?) → out of scope; consider Anthropic's earnings-preview if needed
• Multi-name updates fanned across coverage → not designed for this; run once per ticker

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Workflow at a glance

#	Step	Output	Q&A weight
1	Materials gather	updates/[date]_[event]/ raw artefacts	Light
2	Structured read	updates/[date]_[event]/structured_read.md	Medium
3	Three-test	updates/[date]_[event]/three_test.md	Heavy
4	Action follows from three-test	Updated [TICKER]_pitch.pdf in place (+ Changelog row); on reversal, archive + new primary	Heavy

Each step has a dedicated reference doc. Read them in order:

• Step 1 — Materials gather
• Step 2 — Structured read
• Step 3 — Three-test
• Step 4 — Action
• Anti-patterns

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Files this skill reads from the original pitch

From ~/Claude Projects/Equity Research/[TICKER]/:

File	Role
working/pillars_audited.md	The 2-4 pillars to test against. Pillar IDs (P1/P2/P3) must match across all skill artefacts.
working/killing_conditions.md	The KCs to test (must be in the structured format introduced by the parent-skill patch).
working/valuation_outputs.yaml	Current base PT, bull/bear envelope, WACC, FX. Source of truth for any "current PT" reference.
deliverables/[TICKER]_pitch.md	The memo source — edited in place for refinements.
deliverables/[TICKER]_pitch.pdf	Rebuilt from the markdown after edits.
deliverables/[TICKER]_model.xlsx	Updated only if model flex is part of the action.

The skill does not read or refetch filings/, transcripts/ from prior quarters, industry_brief.md, or the original context.md — those are part of the foundation that the original pitch was built on, and re-reading them is wasted effort for an update.

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Files this skill writes

Per update event:

~/Claude Projects/Equity Research/[TICKER]/updates/[YYYY-MM-DD]_[event-type]/
├── materials/              # raw artefacts pulled in step 1
├── structured_read.md      # step 2 output
└── three_test.md           # step 3 output

And it edits in place:

~/Claude Projects/Equity Research/[TICKER]/deliverables/
├── [TICKER]_pitch.md       # edited in place (Changelog row + any thesis/model changes)
├── [TICKER]_pitch.pdf      # rebuilt from md
└── [TICKER]_model.xlsx     # only if model flexed

And on direction reversal only:

~/Claude Projects/Equity Research/[TICKER]/deliverables/archive/
├── [TICKER]_pitch_v[N]_[date].pdf   # old primary moved here
└── [TICKER]_pitch_v[N]_[date].md

Plus an archive-site copy bump:

~/Python/equity-research-archive/tickers/[TICKER]/
├── SPOT_pitch.pdf          # replaced with the rebuilt PDF
└── index.html              # "Last reviewed: [date]" line bumped; rating + PT updated if changed

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Vocabulary discipline (inherited from parent skill)

• Pillar = a testable argument supporting the direction. IDs (P1, P2, P3) are stable across the original memo, the three-test output, and the Changelog appendix.
• Killing condition (KC) = a pre-specified event/number that would prove a pillar wrong. IDs (KC1, KC2, …) stable across killing_conditions.md and three-test output.
• Load-bearing thesis = the pillar carrying the bulk of the bull/bear edge (in SPOT's case, the GM expansion). Magnitude shift on this pillar matters most.
• Refinement = an in-place edit that keeps the direction unchanged. Updates the original PDF.
• Direction reversal = LONG↔SHORT or any → PASS. Triggers archive-and-replace, not in-place edit.

Never call an update a "new pitch." It's a refinement of an existing one — unless direction reverses, in which case it's a new pitch with the old archived for audit.

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What this skill does vs what you do

Same split as the parent skill:

Skill does	You do
Pulls new artefacts	Decides if more material is needed
Reads end-to-end, structures NEW vs RESTATED	Validates the reading
Runs the three-test mechanically	Confirms verdicts (CONFIRMED/INVALIDATED/SILENT)
Recommends an action based on three-test	Picks the action
Drafts the in-place memo edits	Approves / edits the diffs
Rebuilds PDF, copies to archive	Confirms the final

Skill never picks the action; surfaces the recommended one with explicit reasoning. User decides.