| name | badman-2023-prediction-psp-source-13rs |
| description | Per-entry paper-skill in wave500_coronal_source_mapping_pfss_045 (HelioSI 501-corpus). See body and metadata.yaml for paper identity and claim boundary. |
| paper | {"authors_verified":false} |
badman-2023-prediction-psp-source-13rs
Runtime-neutral paper-skill. Layered: (1) scientific invariants, (2) executable protocol against abstract capabilities, (3) adapter notes (optional examples only), (4) research-generation affordances.
Trigger
Reach for this skill when predicting + verifying PSP solar-wind source regions at 13.3 R_sun via PFSS + ballistic back-mapping, with full pre/post-encounter verification.
Layer 1 — Scientific invariant
Paper identity
- Title: Prediction and Verification of Parker Solar Probe Solar Wind Sources at 13.3 R_sun
- First author: TODO_verify
- Authors: TODO_verify
- Year: 2023
- arXiv: 2303.04852 (posted 2023-03-08)
- Journal: TODO_verify_with_full_text
- DOI: TODO_verify_with_full_text
Claim (narrow form)
PFSS+ballistic back-mapping predicts PSP source regions at 13.3 R_sun with verifiable accuracy when paired with the correct synoptic Br product, and the verification framework is reusable for future perihelia.
Method assumptions
- Ballistic back-mapping from PSP to 13.3 R_sun is valid.
- PFSS source-surface at ~2.5 R_sun gives meaningful footpoints.
Data assumptions
- PSP FIELDS + SWEAP for in-situ verification.
- Synoptic Br for the relevant CR.
Failure modes (skill memory)
- 13.3 R_sun is beyond R_ss; ballistic step dominates.
- Synoptic-product swap shifts predicted source.
Figure / numerical targets
- Predicted vs verified source-region overlay.
- Per-encounter accuracy table.
Claim boundary
In scope. The studied PSP perihelion windows.
Out of scope — do NOT generalize:
- Do NOT extend to outside-perihelion intervals.
- Do NOT collapse the verification framework into a single-step prediction.
Layer 2 — Executable protocol (capability-typed)
Required capabilities (abstract)
| Capability | Purpose | Notes |
|---|
psp.fields_b() | PSP B | |
psp.sweap_n_v() | PSP plasma | |
magnetogram.fetch_synoptic_br() | Br | |
pfss.solve() | PFSS | |
backmap.ballistic() | PSP→13.3 R_sun | |
Procedure
- Pre-encounter: predict source via PFSS+ballistic.
- Post-encounter: fetch PSP B+vsw; verify polarity/source.
- Iterate across encounters; tabulate accuracy.
Validation target
Recover per-encounter accuracy table.
Layer 3 — Adapter / runtime notes (optional examples)
- sunkit-magex.pfss + .library/custom/pfss-tracing/ for the ballistic step.
Layer 4 — Research-generation affordances
- Compose with [[koukras-2022-backmapping-uncertainty-fast-wind]] for prediction-with-uncertainty.
- Generative hypothesis: ballistic-vs-MHD-driven back-mapping discrepancy diagnoses encounter intervals where PFSS is incomplete.
Skill graph → depends_on
- [[koukras-2022-backmapping-uncertainty-fast-wind]]
- [[paper-stansby-2020-pfsspy-python-pfss]]
- [[dakeyo-2026-source-alignment-psp-solo-method-link]]
Links
TODOs for full-text verification
- DOI
- encounters list
- accuracy metric