| name | koukras-2022-backmapping-uncertainty-fast-wind |
| description | Per-entry paper-skill in wave500_coronal_source_mapping_pfss_045 (HelioSI 501-corpus). See body and metadata.yaml for paper identity and claim boundary. |
| paper | {"authors_verified":false} |
koukras-2022-backmapping-uncertainty-fast-wind
Runtime-neutral paper-skill. Layered: (1) scientific invariants, (2) executable protocol against abstract capabilities, (3) adapter notes (optional examples only), (4) research-generation affordances.
Trigger
Reach for this skill when propagating uncertainty in PFSS + ballistic back-mapping into fast-wind source-region attribution.
Layer 1 — Scientific invariant
Paper identity
- Title: Estimating Uncertainties in the Back-Mapping of the Fast Solar Wind
- First author: TODO_verify
- Authors: TODO_verify
- Year: 2022
- arXiv: 2212.11553 (posted 2022-12-22)
- Journal: TODO_verify_with_full_text
- DOI: TODO_verify_with_full_text
Claim (narrow form)
Fast-wind backmapping uncertainty is dominated by vsw variability and R_ss choice, not by magnetogram product, and is quantifiable as an ellipse on the source surface.
Method assumptions
- Ballistic back-mapping is valid up to the source surface.
- Uncertainty propagates linearly for small perturbations.
Data assumptions
- Fast-wind in-situ catalog with vsw uncertainty.
- Synoptic Br per CR.
Failure modes (skill memory)
- Slow streams violate linear-uncertainty assumption.
- R_ss sensitivity dominates near CH boundaries.
Figure / numerical targets
- Uncertainty ellipse on the source surface.
- Decomposition: vsw vs R_ss vs product.
Claim boundary
In scope. Fast-wind streams (vsw>~500 km/s) per paper.
Out of scope — do NOT generalize:
- Do NOT extend the linear approximation to slow wind.
- Do NOT collapse uncertainty into a single scalar without the ellipse shape.
Layer 2 — Executable protocol (capability-typed)
Required capabilities (abstract)
| Capability | Purpose | Notes |
|---|
magnetogram.fetch_synoptic_br() | Br | |
pfss.solve() | PFSS | |
backmap.ballistic() | backmap | |
uncertainty.ellipse_on_surface() | uncertainty ellipse | linearized |
Procedure
- Fetch fast-wind stream list.
- Solve PFSS; back-map each stream.
- Propagate vsw + R_ss + product uncertainty to ellipse.
- Tabulate per-stream ellipse axes.
Validation target
Reproduce the ellipse-axis decomposition.
Layer 3 — Adapter / runtime notes (optional examples)
- sunkit-magex.pfss; pyspedas for in-situ.
Layer 4 — Research-generation affordances
- Compose with [[sasi-2025-uncertainty-solar-wind-incomplete-magnetic-field]] for a unified uncertainty framework.
- Generative hypothesis: outflowpy ellipses should be systematically smaller for fast streams from CH cores.
Skill graph → depends_on
- [[paper-stansby-2020-pfsspy-python-pfss]]
- [[sasi-2025-uncertainty-solar-wind-incomplete-magnetic-field]]
Links
TODOs for full-text verification
- DOI
- fast-wind definition
- linearization assumption