polymarket-scout

name	polymarket-scout
version	1.0.0
description	Scan Polymarket hourly crypto markets (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP) for edge opportunities. Detects counter-consensus setups, freshness windows, and expected value using the Argus strategy. Use when you need Polymarket market scanning, edge detection, hourly binary market analysis, or prediction market signals.
author	JamieRossouw
tags	["polymarket","prediction-markets","crypto","edge-detection","betting","defi"]

Polymarket Scout — Hourly Market Edge Detector

Scans Polymarket's hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP up/down markets for tradeable edge using the Argus strategy.

What It Does

• Fetches live Polymarket odds for hourly crypto markets via REST API
• Computes edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
• Flags counter-consensus setups (TA says UP, market says 70%+ DOWN → positive EV)
• Applies freshness guard: skips markets >92% consensus (L020)
• Returns ranked edge opportunities with bet sizing (Kelly)

Usage

Use polymarket-scout to scan current hourly markets for edge

Use polymarket-scout to check BTC 10am ET edge

Use polymarket-scout to find best Polymarket bet right now

Edge Calculation

edge = our_P - market_P
where our_P = TA-calibrated probability per asset:
  BTC: reliability 0.75, min score ±3
  ETH: reliability 0.80, slight UP bias +0.05
  SOL: reliability 0.90, UP bias +0.05
  XRP: reliability 0.70, UP bias +0.08 (CLARITY catalyst)

Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)

When TA score ≥+1 AND market DOWN >80% AND ≥20 min remaining → counter-consensus UP has positive EV. Validated: 77.8% WR on fresh primary bets.

API Integration

Uses Polymarket CLOB REST API and Gamma API (no keys required).