| name | risk-assessment |
| description | Identify, quantify, and prioritize the financial and business risks of an investment, company, or plan - with likelihood, impact, and mitigants. Use to stress a thesis or build a risk section. |
risk-assessment
Name the real risks, size them, and say what changes the picture - not a generic disclaimer list.
Process
- Enumerate by category: market/competitive, financial (leverage, liquidity, FX, rates), operational,
regulatory/legal, key-person, customer/supplier concentration, technology, macro.
- Likelihood x impact for each (and time horizon) - prioritize the ones that are both probable and severe.
- Quantify where possible (e.g. "a 200bps rate rise adds $Xm interest"; "top-customer loss = Y% of revenue").
- Mitigants & monitors: what reduces each risk and the early-warning metric to watch.
- Tie to the thesis: which risks would actually break it (
scenario-analysis bear case).
Output
- A prioritized risk register: risk -> likelihood/impact -> quantified exposure -> mitigant -> monitor, plus the
2-3 thesis-breakers.
Guardrails
- Quantify, don't just list (
analysis-objectivity); exposure figures sourced where used.
- Be honest about the downside; don't bury risks to support a conclusion.
