thesis-scenario-tree

name	thesis-scenario-tree
description	Turn thesis, catalyst, earnings, and valuation questions into compact scenario trees with contrary evidence and update triggers.

Thesis Scenario Tree

Use this procedure when a workflow asks for thesis review, catalyst review, earnings expectation, valuation scenario, or what would change the view.

Required output shape:

• consensus expectation or expectation bar
• variant perception
• bull, base, and bear cases, or clear alternative hypotheses
• key discriminants
• contrary evidence
• update triggers
• invalidation conditions
• unresolved conflicts

Quality floor:

• Keep scenarios tied to evidence and named assumptions.
• Do not average conflicts into false consensus.
• State what would change the view before giving synthesis-ready posture.
• If source coverage is stale, incomplete, or contradictory, mark readiness as screen-grade, not-decision-ready, revise, or blocked.

Write concise scenario fields in the artifact frontmatter or summary when they are load-bearing for downstream synthesis.