prediction-markets-analysis

name	prediction-markets-analysis
description	Generate deep research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. Combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to surface price drivers, compare market vs. model probabilities, and identify potential mispricings across 120+ active markets.

Prediction Markets Analysis

Generate comprehensive research reports on prediction market events using the Octagon Prediction Markets Agent. This skill combines real-time Kalshi market data with AI-driven analysis to identify mispricings, surface price drivers, and provide actionable trading insights.

Prerequisites

Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.

Note: Report generation requires Octagon Plus, Pro, or Enterprise subscription (3 credits per report). Cached reports are free for all users.

Core Functionality

The Prediction Markets Agent provides:

Capability	Description
Market vs. Model Probability	Computes independent model probability and compares against live market price
Event-Driven Research	Identifies key claims, catalysts, and decision-flipping events
Historical Resolution Tracking	Surfaces past resolution outcomes for context on base rates
Contract Snapshot	Returns live bid/ask spreads, last traded price, volume, and open interest
Cross-Category Coverage	120+ active markets across Politics, Economics, Crypto, Sports, Entertainment, Science & Tech, Climate

Model Variants

Variant