earnings-trade-analyzer

name	earnings-trade-analyzer
description	Use when analyzing a post-earnings gap-up stock to decide whether to buy, scoring it on gap size, volume, MA200, MA50, and pre-earnings trend. Outputs a letter grade and a buy/pass recommendation.

Earnings Trade Analyzer

Overview

Evaluates post-earnings stocks using a 5-factor weighted scoring system (0–100) and assigns a letter grade (A–D) with a buy/pass recommendation. Relies on trader quotes get for price and gap data. Designed for stocks that have already reported and gapped up — this is a momentum follow-through entry framework, not an event-straddle strategy.

Decision rule: Grade A = buy. Grade B = monitor. Grade C/D = pass.

When to Use

• A stock just reported earnings and gapped up significantly
• User wants to know if a post-earnings gap is tradeable
• User asks "should I buy this earnings reaction?"
• Screening multiple tickers after earnings season for the strongest reactions

CLI Integration

# Get current price and gap data
trader quotes get AAPL

# Technical signal context
trader strategies run AAPL --strategy rsi --lookback 90d
trader strategies run AAPL --strategy macd --lookback 90d
trader strategies signals --tickers AAPL --strategy ma_cross

# News — confirm earnings beat narrative
trader news latest --tickers AAPL --limit 5
trader news sentiment AAPL --lookback 24h

# If buying: use a bracket order to manage risk
trader orders bracket AAPL <QTY> --entry <PRICE> --stop-loss <STOP> --take-profit <TARGET>

5-Factor Scoring System

Score each factor 0–20. Total = composite score (0–100).

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Factor 1 — Gap Size (20 pts)

The gap on earnings day as a percentage of the prior close.

Gap %	Points
<3%	2
3–5%	8
5–8%	14
8–12%	18
>12%	20

Calculate: gap_pct = (open_price − prior_close) / prior_close × 100

Use trader quotes get TICKER — compare open to prev_close fields. For intraday analysis, note that gap has already occurred; use the reported open vs prior close.

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Factor 2 — Volume on Earnings Day (20 pts)

Volume vs the 50-day average daily volume.

Volume ratio	Points
<1.0x	2
1.0–1.5x	8
1.5–2.5x	14
2.5–4.0x	18
>4.0x	20

High volume = institutional participation. Low volume gap-ups fade. Get volume from trader quotes get; ADV requires supplemental data (WebSearch or user-supplied).

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Factor 3 — Position vs MA200 (20 pts)

Where the stock is relative to its 200-day moving average at the time of earnings.

Condition	Points
Below MA200	0
Within 5% below MA200	6
Within 5% above MA200	12
5–20% above MA200	18
>20% above MA200 (extended trend)	20

Use trader strategies signals --tickers TICKER --strategy ma_cross — the MA200 level appears in signal output. Alternatively use trader strategies run TICKER --strategy ma_cross --lookback 200d.

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Factor 4 — Position vs MA50 (20 pts)

The stock's position relative to its 50-day moving average.

Condition	Points
Below MA50	0
Within 2% of MA50	8
2–10% above MA50	16
>10% above MA50	20

Same source: trader strategies signals --tickers TICKER --strategy ma_cross.

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Factor 5 — Pre-Earnings Trend (20 pts)

Price trend in the 4 weeks before earnings. A stock in a prior uptrend extending on earnings is very different from one that crashed and bounced.

Condition	Points
Down >10% in 4 weeks pre-earnings	0
Down 5–10%	5
Flat (±5%)	10
Up 5–15% (constructive base)	17
Up >15% (strong trend)	20

Use trader strategies run TICKER --strategy rsi --lookback 90d and inspect the price trend in the 4 weeks leading to earnings date. Supplement with trader news sentiment TICKER --lookback 48h to confirm no pre-earnings leak or fade.

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Grade Table

Score	Grade	Action
85–100	A	Strong buy — enter with full position size
70–84	B	Watchlist — wait for pullback to gap-fill or 10-day MA
55–69	C	Mixed signals — pass unless other conviction
<55	D	Avoid — gap likely to fade

Entry Quality Filter

Even with a Grade A score, apply these go/no-go checks:

• Gap has NOT filled intraday (price still above earnings open)
• Sentiment score from trader news sentiment is positive (> 0.1)
• No secondary offering or guidance-cut in news (trader news latest)
• Buying power available (trader account balance)
• Market context is not Red/Critical (run market-top-detector skill first)

Workflow

1. Run trader quotes get TICKER — record open, prev_close, volume, current price.
2. Run trader strategies signals --tickers TICKER --strategy ma_cross — get MA50 and MA200.
3. Run trader strategies run TICKER --strategy rsi --lookback 90d — assess pre-earnings trend.
4. Run trader news latest --tickers TICKER --limit 5 and trader news sentiment TICKER --lookback 24h — confirm narrative.
5. Score each factor. Sum total.
6. Apply entry quality filter.
7. Output grade, score breakdown, and recommended command.

Output Format

Earnings Trade Analysis: AAPL  (reported 2026-03-10)

Factor Scores:
  Gap Size           (gap: +9.2%)    →  18 / 20
  Volume             (3.1x ADV)      →  18 / 20
  MA200 position     (+12% above)    →  18 / 20
  MA50 position      (+6% above)     →  16 / 20
  Pre-earnings trend (+8% prior 4wk) →  17 / 20

Composite Score: 87 / 100  →  GRADE A

Entry filter:
  [x] Gap intact    [x] Positive sentiment    [x] No dilution news
  [x] Buying power OK    [x] Market not in Red zone

Recommendation: BUY

Suggested command (after sizing via position-sizer skill):
  trader orders bracket AAPL 50 --entry 198.50 --stop-loss 191.00 --take-profit 218.00

Common Mistakes

• Buying the gap fill — This skill is for momentum follow-through. If the stock has already filled the gap, the setup is voided. Pass.
• Ignoring MA200 — Stocks below their 200MA that gap up often fail within 2–3 weeks. Score honestly.
• Skipping news check — A guidance cut or secondary offering buried in the press release will tank the trade regardless of price action.
• Using daily close instead of earnings open — Gap size must be measured from the earnings-day open vs prior-day close, not intraday high/low.
• Grade B FOMO — Grade B is "watch," not "buy now." Wait for a pullback entry or skip.