| name | macro-warning |
| description | Daily batch-mode macro pullback / warning radar. Checks valuation extremes (NDX/QQQ Forward PE), volatility (VIX/MOVE), sentiment (CNN F&G, AAII), credit spreads (HY OAS), market internals (% above 200DMA, breadth), yen carry (USD/JPY), yield curve, and 11-sector rotation. Outputs Red/Yellow/Green regime + specific positioning advice. Designed for daily 5pm ET (post-close) or 8am ET (pre-open) batch runs via /schedule. Triggers in English ("macro warning", "regime check", "is the market at peak", "should I take profits", "is it time to buy") or Chinese ("宏观警报", "市场是不是顶了", "该不该减仓", "regime 怎么样", "该入场吗"). |
Macro Warning — Daily Pullback / Top-Risk Radar
Goal
Answer 3 questions every market session:
- Is the market priced for perfection? (valuation extreme)
- Are we euphoric or panicked? (sentiment / volatility extreme)
- What sector should I lean into / out of? (rotation tilt)
Output is a single regime tag (🟢 GREEN / 🟡 YELLOW / 🔴 RED) plus specific position-sizing advice.
When to invoke
- Daily batch (recommended): 5pm ET (post-close) or 8am ET (pre-open) via
/schedule
- Manual: User asks "macro check / regime read / 该不该入场"
- Pre-event: 24-48h before Fed / CPI / NFP / major earnings stack
- After +/-2% SPX day: regime may have shifted
The Indicator Stack (8 layers, weighted)
Layer 1 — Valuation extremes (highest weight)
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| NDX Forward P/E | gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/6778 or macromicro.me/series/23955 or yfmcp QQQ.info forwardPE | >38 = RED (only 3 times in 20 yr: 2000, 2020, 2025) · 33-38 = YELLOW · <30 = GREEN | RED → trim AI capex names 25%, raise cash to 30% |
| SPX Forward P/E | wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields | >22 = YELLOW · >25 = RED | RED → defensive rotation |
| Shiller CAPE | multpl.com/shiller-pe | >35 = YELLOW · >40 = RED | Long-term sell signal |
| Buffett Indicator (Mcap/GDP) | currentmarketvaluation.com | >180% = YELLOW · >200% = RED | Confirms top regime |
Why NDX 38 matters: historical record high is 38.57 (2000 dot-com peak excluded — that was 73). Touching 38 is statistically a 95th-percentile event.
Layer 2 — Volatility (VIX / MOVE / VVIX)
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| VIX (SPX vol) | yfmcp ^VIX | >30 = BUY signal (panic) · 22-30 = caution · <18 = COMPLACENT (sell) · <14 = euphoric | <14 → take profits aggressively |
| MOVE (bond vol) | ^MOVE or WebSearch | >120 = stress · <80 = calm | >120 + VIX>25 = correlated stress |
| VVIX (vol of vol) | ^VVIX | >120 = vol regime change brewing | >120 + VIX rising = pre-cascade |
| VIX/VVIX ratio | derived | <0.18 = complacent · >0.30 = panic | <0.18 → top-feel |
Layer 3 — Sentiment
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| CNN Fear & Greed | cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed | >80 = EXTREME GREED (sell) · 55-80 = greed · 25-45 = fear · <17 = EXTREME FEAR (buy) | >80 → take profits · <20 → add risk |
| AAII Sentiment | aaii.com/sentimentsurvey | Bullish >50% = caution · <25% = capitulation buy | Contrarian indicator |
| NAAIM Exposure | naaim.org | >100% = leveraged long (caution) · <40% = washed out (buy) | |
| Put/Call ratio | yfmcp or CBOE | <0.50 = complacent · >1.20 = panic | <0.50 = top-feel |
Layer 4 — Credit / Risk premium
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| HY OAS spread | fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2 | <300bps = tight · >500bps = stressed · >700bps = recession-pricing | <300 = late-cycle complacent · >500 = risk-off |
| IG OAS spread | BAMLC0A0CM | <100 = tight · >150 = caution | |
| Yield curve 2-10 | ^TNX minus 2Y | Inverted = recession warning · steepening from negative = recession nearing | Steepening from inverted = LATE warning |
| 30Y yield | ^TYX | >5.10% = bond market stressed · >5.50% = equity multiple compression | >5.10 → trim long-duration tech |
Layer 5 — Currency / carry
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| DXY (Dollar Index) | DX-Y.NYB | >107 = USD strength stress · <100 = USD weakness | DXY surge + emerging market FX crash = global risk-off |
| USD/JPY | JPY=X | <153 = yen carry unwind risk · >155 = stable | <153 → trim semi names heavily (Japanese ownership unwind) |
| BOJ rate hike pricing | WebSearch | Imminent hike → JPY strengthen → carry unwind | Pre-emptively trim |
Layer 6 — Market internals / breadth
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| % SPX stocks above 200DMA | WebSearch "spx breadth percent above 200dma" | >75% = healthy · <50% = deteriorating · <25% = washed out | <50% in rising market = bad breadth divergence |
| NYSE A/D line | WebSearch "nyse advance decline line" | New highs with rising A/D = healthy; new highs with flat/falling A/D = topping | |
| New highs vs new lows | WebSearch | Highs >> lows = healthy; lows expanding = top distribution | |
| McClellan Oscillator | WebSearch | >+100 = overbought · <-100 = oversold | Contrarian |
Layer 7 — CTA / systematic flows
| Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action |
|---|
| CTA net positioning | WebSearch "Goldman CTA flows this week" | Max long = no buyers left · Max short = no sellers left | Max long + extended market = pre-unwind |
| Vol-target funds positioning | WebSearch "Nomura vol target positioning" | Heavy long + VIX >20 = mechanical de-leveraging risk | |
Layer 8 — Sector rotation tilt (the action layer)
Run sector-rotation-analysis skill for full breakdown. Quick check:
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|
| XLU/XLK ratio rising | Defensive rotation starting |
| XLP outperforming SPX | Late-cycle warning |
| XLY underperforming XLP | Consumer fatigue |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) lagging SPX | Risk-off / breadth deterioration |
| Mag 7 vs SPX equal-weight (RSP) | Concentration extreme = top-warning |
The composite regime tag
Score each layer 0 (worst), 1 (caution), 2 (good). Sum gives composite:
| Total | Regime | Action |
|---|
| 12-16 | 🟢 GREEN — risk-on | Add to existing positions, deploy cash |
| 7-11 | 🟡 YELLOW — late cycle / chop | Hold, no new adds, set stops |
| 4-6 | 🟠 ORANGE — pre-correction | Trim 20-30%, raise cash to 25% |
| 0-3 | 🔴 RED — sell-the-rip / euphoria peak | Trim 40%+, raise cash to 35-50%, hedge with SPY puts |
Asymmetric weighting: if NDX P/E >38 OR VIX <14 OR F&G >85, even with everything else green, regime is YELLOW minimum (top-risk override).
Output format (for batch / agent consumption)
# Macro Warning — [DATE]
## Regime: [🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴] [GREEN/YELLOW/ORANGE/RED]
**Composite score: X / 16**
## Headline (1 sentence)
[E.g., "NDX P/E at 38.1 (95th percentile) + VIX 14 + F&G 78 = late-cycle euphoria, trim AI names."]
## The 8 layers
| Layer | Reading | Score | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | NDX FwdPE 38.1, SPX FwdPE 22.5 | 0/2 | RED — at all-time-high zone |
| Volatility | VIX 14, MOVE 95 | 1/2 | Complacent |
| Sentiment | F&G 78, AAII bull 52% | 1/2 | Greed |
| Credit | HY OAS 285bps | 1/2 | Tight |
| FX | DXY 99, USD/JPY 154 | 2/2 | Stable |
| Breadth | 71% above 200DMA | 1/2 | Healthy but slipping |
| CTA | Max long | 0/2 | Crowded |
| Sector | XLU starting to outperform | 1/2 | Early defensive rotation |
| **Total** | | **7/16** | YELLOW |
## What changed today vs yesterday
- [Bullet: VIX +1.5, F&G +5, etc.]
- [Bullet: any threshold crossings]
## Action items (specific, sized)
- **If long-only book**: Trim X% of [overheated names]; raise cash to X%
- **If options-friendly**: Buy X% notional SPY 60DTE puts at delta 0.25
- **If looking to add**: Wait for VIX > X or F&G < Y before deploying
## Sector tilt
- **Add**: [list with reasoning]
- **Trim**: [list with reasoning]
- **Hold**: [list]
## Catalysts watch (next 7 days)
- [Date]: [Event] → impact
## Quote-worthy summary
"[Single sentence the user can paste into a chat]"
Hard rules
- Never claim certainty about timing. Say "elevated risk", not "the top is in".
- Always show all 8 layers even if some are GREEN — paints full picture.
- Flag changes vs prior reading — that's where the alpha is.
- Tag the date and time of data pull — markets move fast.
- NDX P/E >38 OR VIX <14 = automatic YELLOW minimum even if other layers green (override rule).
- Cite sources — every threshold has a verifiable URL. No fabricated numbers.
- For batch run, pre-fetch all data in parallel to keep total runtime <60s.
⭐ Canonical data pull: scripts/macro_pull.py
Use this script for all batch runs. It hits direct APIs (no WebSearch, no LLM scraping) and returns a single JSON blob with raw values + deterministic 8-layer scoring.
/tmp/.insider_venv/bin/python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/macro-warning/scripts/macro_pull.py 2>/dev/null | head -1)
/tmp/.insider_venv/bin/python $(ls ~/.claude/{skills,plugins/claude-investment-skills}/macro-warning/scripts/macro_pull.py 2>/dev/null | head -1) --skip-breadth
... macro_pull.py | jq '.scoring'
Why direct APIs not WebSearch:
- Reproducible (same input → same output)
- Batch-safe (no rate limit, no LLM token cost)
- Auditable (every value has a known source)
- WebSearch returns stale/summarized data — actual API gives the live number
Data sources used by the script
| Layer | Indicator | Source | API type |
|---|
| Valuation | Shiller CAPE, SPX trailing PE, Div Yield | multpl.com/{slug} | HTML meta tag scrape |
| Volatility | VIX, MOVE, VVIX | yfinance ^VIX, ^MOVE, ^VVIX | Python lib |
| Sentiment | CNN F&G + 1w/1m/1y history | production.dataviz.cnn.io/index/fearandgreed/graphdata | Unofficial JSON (browser headers) |
| Credit | HY/IG OAS, DGS10/30/2, T10Y2Y | fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=... | Public CSV (no API key, default UA only — Chrome UA gets blocked) |
| Currency | DXY, USD/JPY | yfinance DX-Y.NYB, JPY=X | Python lib |
| Breadth | % SPX top 50 above 200DMA (proxy) | yfinance batch on top 50 SPX names | Computed |
| Sector | XLK, XLU, XLP, XLY, XLE, XLF, SMH, RSP, IWM | yfinance | Python lib |
| CTA flow | — | No public API; check Goldman PB report manually | — |
| AAII | — | No public API; check aaii.com/sentimentsurvey weekly | — |
Output schema
{
"timestamp_utc": "2026-05-08T...",
"yf": {SPY, QQQ, VIX, MOVE, VVIX, ^TNX, ^TYX, DXY, JPY, ETFs...},
"fred": {HY_OAS, IG_OAS, DGS10, DGS30, T10Y2Y, DGS2},
"cnn": {score, rating, prev_close, prev_1_week, prev_1_month, prev_1_year},
"multpl": {shiller_pe, spx_trailing_pe, spx_dividend_yield},
"breadth": {above, total, pct_above_200dma_top50, missing_tickers},
"scoring": {
"layers": {valuation, volatility, sentiment, credit, currency, breadth, cta_flow, sector_rotation},
"composite": 0-16,
"regime": "🟢 GREEN | 🟡 YELLOW | 🟠 ORANGE | 🔴 RED",
"triggers": ["Shiller CAPE 42.05 > 38 (extreme)", "VIX 17.19 < 18 (exit-signal threshold)", ...]
}
}
Fallback / gaps the script does NOT cover
| What | Why | Manual fallback |
|---|
| NDX Forward PE | yfinance returns null for ETF index; macromicro/gurufocus need login | yfmcp QQQ.info or quarterly recheck |
| AAII bullish % | aaii.com no API | Check aaii.com Thursday updates |
| Goldman CTA $ flow | proprietary | Check JPM/GS week-ahead reports |
| Buffett Indicator | multpl.com page returns 404 | Use currentmarketvaluation.com |
| Full $S5TH (all SPX) | Index restricted to data vendors | Top-50 proxy is biased toward mega-cap (intentional, captures Mag-7 risk) |
Example execution for batch agent
indicators = {
'NDX_PE': fetch_yfinance('QQQ').get('forwardPE'),
'VIX': fetch_yfinance('^VIX').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'MOVE': fetch_yfinance('^MOVE').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'VVIX': fetch_yfinance('^VVIX').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'TNX': fetch_yfinance('^TNX').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'TYX': fetch_yfinance('^TYX').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'DXY': fetch_yfinance('DX-Y.NYB').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'USDJPY': fetch_yfinance('JPY=X').get('regularMarketPrice'),
'F&G': webfetch_cnn_fear_greed(),
'HY_OAS': webfetch_fred_BAMLH0A0HYM2(),
'breadth_200': websearch_breadth(),
'CTA': websearch_cta_flows(),
'sectors': [fetch_yfinance(s) for s in ['XLU','XLK','XLY','XLP','SPY','RSP']],
}
scores = score_layers(indicators)
total = sum(scores.values())
regime = regime_from_total(total, indicators)
yesterday = load_yesterday()
delta = compute_delta(indicators, yesterday)
print(format_report(regime, total, scores, indicators, delta))
save_today(indicators)
Recommended scheduling (use /schedule skill)
Option A: Pre-market alert (recommended)
Cron: 0 12 * * 1-5 (8am ET = 12 UTC, weekdays)
Routine name: daily-macro-warning-premarket
Repo: claude-investment-skills (this repo)
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Allowed tools: WebSearch, WebFetch, Bash, Read
MCP: yfmcp (for ^VIX, ^MOVE, ^VVIX, sector ETFs)
Prompt: "Run the macro-warning skill. Output the structured report. If regime
flipped from GREEN→YELLOW or YELLOW→ORANGE/RED since yesterday, emphasize
the change. If NDX FwdPE crossed 38 in either direction, lead with it.
Save today's snapshot to memory for tomorrow's delta."
Option B: Post-close summary
Cron: 0 21 * * 1-5 (5pm ET = 21 UTC, weekdays)
Same prompt but appends:
- "What broke today (single-day moves >2σ)"
- "Tomorrow's catalysts (CPI/Fed/earnings)"
Option C: Both
Pre-market for action, post-close for reflection. Doubles the cost but catches both windows. Recommended only if user is active trading.
Memory integration
After each run, write a one-line entry to:
~/.claude/projects/-Volumes-workplace-invest/memory/macro_history.jsonl
Format:
{"date":"2026-05-08","regime":"YELLOW","score":7,"NDX_PE":38.1,"VIX":14.3,"FG":78,"HY_OAS":285,"USDJPY":154.2}
This enables:
- Trend tracking ("VIX rising 3 days in a row")
- Threshold crossing alerts ("NDX PE crossed above 38 today")
- Backtesting historical signals
When NOT to use this skill
- Single-stock decisions → use
analyze-stock instead
- Pre-earnings positioning → use
earnings-prep
- Portfolio audit → use
portfolio-audit
- New idea hunting → use
find-untapped-thesis / find-alpha
This skill answers ONE question: "Should I be aggressive, neutral, or defensive RIGHT NOW?"
Companion skills
sector-rotation-analysis — full 11-GICS heat map (this skill only does Layer 8 quick check)macro-risk-check — overlapping but more news-driven; this skill is more quantitativeportfolio-audit — once regime is determined, audit current book against it
Hard-learned context (verified examples)
- 2000 March: NDX PE 73, F&G 95, VIX 18 → 6 months later NDX -78%
- 2020 Feb: NDX PE 32, F&G 60, VIX 13 → 5 weeks later -35%
- 2021 Nov: NDX PE 35, F&G 80, VIX 17 → 12 months later -33%
- 2022 Jan: VIX <17 in low-rate environment + Fed hawkish pivot → -27%
- 2026 May (now): NDX PE 38.15 (essentially at all-time non-bubble high), VIX low, AI capex narrative max-extended
The signal is loudest when valuation is extreme AND sentiment is greed AND VIX is low AND breadth is narrowing. Any 3 of 4 = serious YELLOW. All 4 = RED.
Year-specific overlays (update annually)
For 2026:
- AI capex names (NVDA / AVGO / AMD / MRVL) are sentiment-coupled to AI Power names (CEG / VST / GEV) and AI receiver names (FN / TSEM / GFS / NOK / GLW)
- A correction in any of the three sub-themes will likely spread to all three within 5-10 trading days
- Yen carry (USD/JPY) is the single highest-correlation external trigger for AI / semi names
- Watch for: NVDA earnings (5/20 next), CPI prints, Fed dots, BOJ rate path, China CXMT IPO (June 2026 — could pressure MU/SK Hynix valuations)
