critical-case-design

name	critical-case-design
description	Flyvbjerg critical case methodology: select most-likely and least-likely cases to maximize inferential power.
type	strategy
dependencies	{"tactics":["boundary-probing","counterexample-heuristics"],"sops":["breakpoint-detection","contradiction-detection","extreme-value-generation","parameter-space-mapping"]}

Critical Case Design

Tactics

• boundary-probing
• counterexample-heuristics

Method

1. Identify the claim's scope and conditions
2. Design most-likely case: conditions maximally favorable to claim
3. Design least-likely case: conditions maximally unfavorable
4. If claim fails in most-likely case: strong disconfirmation
5. If claim holds in least-likely case: strong confirmation
6. Report inferential power of each test

Budget

Size	Critical cases designed	Evaluation depth
S	2 (one most-likely, one least-likely)	Surface
M	4 (two each)	Moderate
L	6 (three each)	Deep

Orchestration

1. Dispatch parameter-space-mapping to identify conditions
2. Dispatch extreme-value-generation for favorable/unfavorable extremes
3. Dispatch breakpoint-detection to test claim at critical cases
4. Dispatch contradiction-detection to evaluate outcomes

Subagents

• parameter-space-mapping
• extreme-value-generation
• breakpoint-detection
• contradiction-detection

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
boundary-probing	Map parameter space, generate extreme values, test at boundaries, detect breakpoints, synthesize validity envelope.
counterexample-heuristics	Generate counterexamples (monsters), attempt monster-barring, incorporate surviving counterexamples as lemma refinements (Lakatos method).

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
breakpoint-detection	Test a claim at extreme parameter values and detect the precise point where it breaks down.
contradiction-detection	Evaluate whether a derivation chain has reached a genuine contradiction, absurdity, or inconclusive state.
extreme-value-generation	Generate boundary and extreme test values for a given parameter dimension to stress-test claims.
parameter-space-mapping	Identify all parameter dimensions along which a claim's validity might vary.