business-case

name	business-case
compatibility	Claude Code 2.1.183+
description	Business case analysis with ROI, NPV, IRR, payback period, and TCO calculations for investment decisions. Use when building financial justification, cost-benefit analysis, build-vs-buy comparisons, or sensitivity analysis.
version	1.0.0
author	OrchestKit
user-invocable	false
disable-model-invocation	false
complexity	medium
persuasion-type	guidance
tags	["roi","npv","irr","tco","build-vs-buy","financial-analysis","cost-benefit"]
context	fork
agent	product-strategist
metadata	{"category":"document-asset-creation"}
allowed-tools	["Read","Glob","Grep","WebFetch","WebSearch"]

Business Case

Financial frameworks for investment justification and decision support.

When to Use Each Framework

Framework	Use When
ROI	Quick sanity check; time value of money doesn't matter much
NPV	Multi-year investments; gold standard for GO/NO-GO
IRR	Comparing projects competing for the same budget
Payback Period	Leadership asks "how fast do we break even?"
TCO	Build vs. buy; total cost including hidden/ongoing costs
Sensitivity Analysis	High uncertainty; need to stress-test assumptions

Decision Tree

Is the investment multi-year?
  YES → Use NPV (+ IRR to compare alternatives)
  NO  → ROI is sufficient

Is this a build vs. buy decision?
  YES → TCO comparison across all three options
  NO  → Skip TCO, use NPV/ROI

Are assumptions uncertain?
  YES → Add sensitivity analysis (3 scenarios)
  NO  → Base case only

Quick Reference Formulas

ROI = (Net Benefits - Total Costs) / Total Costs × 100%

NPV = Sum(Cash Flow_t / (1 + r)^t) - Initial Investment
  r = discount rate (10% enterprise, 15-20% growth, 25-40% startup)
  Decision: Accept if NPV > 0

IRR = discount rate where NPV = 0
  Decision: Accept if IRR > hurdle rate

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Annual Cash Flow
  Benchmarks: SaaS 6-12 mo, Enterprise platform 12-24 mo, Infra 24-36 mo

TCO = CAPEX + (OPEX × years) + Opportunity Cost + Hidden Costs

Business Case Template

# Business Case: [Project Name]

## Executive Summary
[2-3 sentences: what we're investing in and expected return]

## Financial Analysis

### Investment Required
| Item | One-Time | Annual |
|------|----------|--------|
| Development | $X | |
| License / SaaS | | $X |
| Implementation | $X | |
| Training | $X | |
| Maintenance | | $X |
| **Total** | **$X** | **$X** |

### Expected Benefits
| Benefit | Annual Value | Confidence |
|---------|--------------|------------|
| Time savings (X hrs × $Y/hr) | $X | High |
| Error reduction | $X | Medium |
| Revenue uplift | $X | Low |
| **Total** | **$X** | |

### Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| 3-Year TCO | $X |
| NPV (10% discount) | $X |
| IRR | X% |
| Payback Period | X months |
| ROI | X% |

## Sensitivity Analysis
| Scenario | Discount Rate | Year 1 Benefits | NPV |
|----------|---------------|-----------------|-----|
| Base case | 10% | $X | $X |
| Conservative | 15% | $X × 0.75 | $X |
| Optimistic | 8% | $X × 1.25 | $X |

## Risk Analysis
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| | | | |

## Recommendation
[GO / NO-GO] — [one-sentence rationale]

TCO: Build vs. Buy vs. Partner

See rules/business-cost-benefit.md for the full 3-year TCO template and hidden cost checklist.

Key hidden costs to never omit:

Category	Build	Buy
Opportunity cost	Yes — team blocked from other work	No
Switching costs	N/A	Yes — vendor lock-in
Downtime risk	You own uptime	Partial SLA coverage
Security/compliance	Your responsibility	Shared

Common Pitfalls

Pitfall	Mitigation
Simple ROI without time value	Always use NPV for multi-year decisions
Ignoring soft costs (training, change mgmt)	Add 30% buffer to implementation estimates
Optimistic benefit estimates	Use conservative estimates, document assumptions
Sunk cost included in forward analysis	Evaluate future costs/benefits only
No sensitivity analysis	Always test conservative + optimistic scenarios

References

• ROI & Financial Metrics — NPV, IRR, payback period formulas with code examples
• Cost-Benefit & TCO — Build vs. buy TCO template, hidden costs, sensitivity analysis
• ROI Calculation Guide — Detailed cost breakdown (CAPEX/OPEX/opportunity cost)
• Build-Buy-Partner Decision — Scoring matrix across 5 dimensions

Related Skills

• ork:market-sizing — Size the opportunity before building the business case
• ork:competitive-analysis — Assess competitive context and moat for the investment
• ork:product-frameworks — Full product strategy toolkit (prioritization, OKRs, personas)

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Version: 1.0.0