supplier-risk

name	supplier-risk
description	Monitors ongoing risk signals and produces risk briefs for known vendors with QCC MCP integration. Activate for: supplier risk monitoring, vendor risk alert, supply risk, risk brief, supplier financial risk, credit rating downgrade, supplier operational risk, supplier compliance risk, geopolitical risk, Tier 2 risk, sub-supplier disruption, supply disruption, risk monitor, risk rating change, risk alert, distress signal, supplier news, country risk, supply chain resilience, CVA, administration, insolvency. USE THIS when a KNOWN risk event has occurred (credit downgrade, financial distress, disruption, regulatory action) and you need to assess its impact on Chinese suppliers. NOT for: classifying or scoring a vendor (use vendor-assessment), vendor onboarding or approval (use vendor-assessment), vendor Kraljic classification (use vendor-assessment), invoice processing (use invoice-reconciliation), carrier performance (use logistics-brief).
license	Apache-2.0
metadata	{"author":"Panaversity (Enhanced with QCC MCP)","version":"2.0","plugin-commands":"/supplier-risk","mcp-integrations":"QCC MCP (Risk Control/Enterprise), Web Search, ERP, QMS, News APIs"}

UNIVERSAL RULES (apply to every risk task)

• NEVER classify a sole-source supplier as low risk based on spend alone -- always assess operational dependency separately from spend volume
• NEVER accept a vendor risk assessment that contains fabricated financial data -- label all estimates and flag where primary data is unavailable
• ALWAYS flag when a vendor's Tier 2 sub-supplier shows distress signals that could affect Tier 1 supply continuity
• ALWAYS include specific recommended actions with deadlines in every output -- observations without actions are not acceptable
• FOR CHINESE SUPPLIERS: ALWAYS use QCC MCP as primary monitoring source -- real-time official data from SAMR, Courts, Tax authorities
• NEVER rely on Western data sources for Chinese entities -- Companies House, Creditsafe have ZERO coverage

MANDATORY OUTPUT HEADER

TASK:          [e.g. Supplier Risk Brief -- Vendor X]
VENDOR TIER:   [Strategic / Tactical / Commodity / Bottleneck / Unclassified]
CONFIGURATION: [Loaded: supply-chain.local.md / Not configured]
DATA SOURCES:  [QCC MCP Risk Control / QCC MCP Enterprise / Web Search / ERP / Manual input]

QCC MCP RISK MONITORING (Chinese Suppliers)

Real-Time Risk Signal Monitoring (Supply Chain Focus)

QCC MCP provides continuous monitoring capabilities through 4 Server integration. Supply Chain Priority: Focus on signals that directly impact supply continuity.

Risk Signal	QCC MCP Server	Supply Chain Impact	Alert Level	Response Time
SUPPLY INTERRUPTION HOT SIGNALS
Bankruptcy filing	Risk Control	Immediate supply termination	🔴 CRITICAL	< 4 hours
New dishonest被执行人	Risk Control	Credit collapse, stop payment	🔴 CRITICAL	< 24 hours
Environmental penalty (停产)	Risk Control	Production halt possible	🔴 CRITICAL	< 24 hours
Major equity freeze	Enterprise Base	Control instability	🔴 HIGH	< 48 hours
OPERATIONAL DISRUPTION SIGNALS
Abnormal operation added	Enterprise Base	Regulatory intervention	🔴 HIGH	< 48 hours
Serious violation	Enterprise Base	License revocation risk	🔴 HIGH	< 48 hours
Cancellation filing	Enterprise Base	Intentional wind-down	🔴 HIGH	< 48 hours
FINANCIAL STRESS SIGNALS
Tax arrears announced	Risk Control	Cash flow crisis	🟡 MEDIUM	< 7 days
Abnormal tax status	Risk Control	Compliance breakdown	🟡 MEDIUM	< 7 days
Multiple equity pledges	Enterprise Base	Over-leverage	🟡 MEDIUM	< 30 days
COMPLIANCE SIGNALS
Administrative penalty	Risk Control	General compliance	🟡 LOW	< 30 days
Environmental penalty (non-停产)	Risk Control	Fine only	🟡 LOW	< 30 days

Supply Chain Monitoring Extensions (监控扩展)

CAPACITY MONITORING (产能监控)

QCC MCP Server: Operation + Company

Signal	Source	Frequency	Action
License expiration	Administrative license	Daily	AMBER if < 90 days
Qualification lapse	Qualifications	Daily	RED if expired
Production site changes	Change records	Weekly	Review BCP impact
Bidding activity drop	Bidding info	Weekly	Assess business health
Credit rating change	Credit evaluation	Monthly	Review supplier tier

Note: Tier 1 Strategic suppliers require monthly capacity verification via Operation Server.

Five Risk Dimensions (QCC MCP Enhanced)

DIMENSION 1: FINANCIAL RISK (QCC MCP Risk Control)

Monitor for:

• Equity Restrictions (股权受限):

  • New equity freeze (股权冻结新增) - RED
  • Multiple equity pledges (频繁股权出质) - AMBER
  • Large chattel mortgages (大额动产抵押) - AMBER

• Tax Status Changes (税务异动):

  • Tax arrears announcement (欠税公告发布) - RED
  • Abnormal tax status (非正常户认定) - RED
  • Tax violation records (税收违法) - RED

• Bankruptcy Signals (破产信号):

  • Bankruptcy reorganization filing (破产重整申请) - RED
  • Liquidation information (清算信息) - RED

• Financial Data Availability:

  • Non-listed companies: Request annual audited accounts
  • QCC MCP provides property/tax indicators as proxies

Risk levels:

• RED HIGH: Bankruptcy/liquidation, tax abnormal status, equity freeze
• AMBER MEDIUM: Equity pledge >2 within 12 months, tax arrears < 90 days
• GREEN LOW: No equity restrictions, tax normal, no bankruptcy signals

DIMENSION 2: OPERATIONAL RISK (ERP + QCC MCP)

Monitor from ERP data (updated continuously):

• OTD rate: 13-week rolling average + trend direction
• Quality rejection rate: 13-week rolling average + trend direction
• Lead time variance: increasing variance = capacity or process strain
• Missed delivery pattern: same day of week? Same product? (capacity signals)
• Partial deliveries increasing? (material shortage signal)

Monitor from QCC MCP Enterprise Base (daily):

• Abnormal operation status (经营异常名录)
• Serious violation records (严重违法失信)
• Administrative penalties (行政处罚)
• Environmental penalties (环保处罚)

Risk levels:

• RED HIGH: Abnormal operation status active; OTD < critical threshold
• AMBER MEDIUM: Declining trend even if above threshold; recent penalty (<12 months)
• GREEN LOW: Stable; above threshold; no adverse trend; no operational penalties

DIMENSION 3: REGULATORY & COMPLIANCE RISK (QCC MCP Risk Control)

Monitor for:

• Certification expiry (ISO, sector-specific, data protection)
• Regulatory enforcement action via QCC MCP:
  • Administrative penalties (行政处罚新增)
  • Environmental penalties (环保处罚新增)
• Serious violation status (严重违法失信企业)
• Sanctions list changes
• Trade compliance issues

Risk levels:

• RED HIGH: Serious violation status; certification lapsed
• AMBER MEDIUM: Certification expiring within 90 days; penalty within 12 months
• GREEN LOW: All certifications current; no adverse regulatory signals

DIMENSION 4: GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Monitor for:

• Political instability in vendor's operating country
• Trade restrictions, tariffs, or export controls affecting category
• Currency volatility affecting contract economics
• Infrastructure disruption (port strikes, border closures, natural disaster)
• Conflict affecting supply routes

For Chinese suppliers:

• Policy changes affecting industry sector
• Regional trade restriction updates
• Entity list additions

Risk levels:

• RED HIGH: Active disruption to supply route or vendor operations
• AMBER MEDIUM: Elevated country risk; currency movement >5% since contract
• GREEN LOW: Stable environment; no material currency exposure

DIMENSION 5: TIER 2 / SUB-SUPPLIER RISK

Monitor for:

• Financial distress at critical Tier 2 suppliers (via QCC MCP if Chinese)
• Tier 2 supplier capacity constraints affecting Tier 1 output
• Single-geography concentration at Tier 2 level
• Tier 2 supplier relationship with Tier 1 deteriorating

Requirement: Tier 2 mapping must exist for all Tier 1 Strategic vendors. If mapping does not exist: flag as UNASSESSED RISK; request Tier 2 data from Tier 1 supplier as priority action.

Risk Rating Change Rules

ESCALATE overall rating if ANY dimension reaches RED ELEVATE to MEDIUM-HIGH if TWO dimensions reach AMBER simultaneously REDUCE rating only after confirmed remediation (not just vendor assurance)

QCC MCP RISK BRIEF OUTPUT FORMAT

SUPPLIER RISK BRIEF: [Vendor Name]
Assessment date: [Date] | Next scheduled review: [Date]
================================================================
OVERALL RISK RATING: [GREEN LOW / AMBER MEDIUM / AMBER MEDIUM-HIGH / RED HIGH / RED CRITICAL]
Change since last review: [No change / Elevated / Reduced]

-- QCC MCP RISK SIGNALS (Last 90 Days) --
🔴 NEW CRITICAL SIGNALS:
  [Date] [Signal Type] [Description] [Source: QCC MCP]

🟡 NEW MODERATE SIGNALS:
  [Date] [Signal Type] [Description] [Source: QCC MCP]

FINANCIAL RISK:   [GREEN / AMBER / RED] [Rating]
Property Restrictions:
  - Equity Freeze:    [Active since / None]
  - Equity Pledge:    [Count in last 12 months]
  - Chattel Mortgage: [Count/Amount]
Tax Status:
  - Tax Arrears:      [Amount/Type/Date or None]
  - Abnormal Status:  [Yes - date/office / No]
Bankruptcy:
  - Proceedings:      [Yes - type/status / No]
[QCC MCP Trace: Risk Control Server, Enterprise Base Server]

OPERATIONAL RISK: [GREEN / AMBER / RED] [Rating]
[OTD trend, quality trend, lead time data from ERP]
QCC MCP Signals:
  - Abnormal Operation: [Status/Date or Clear]
  - Administrative Penalties: [Count in last 12m]
  - Environmental Penalties: [Count in last 12m]
[QCC MCP Trace: Enterprise Base Server]

COMPLIANCE RISK:  [GREEN / AMBER / RED] [Rating]
Certification status: [Details]
QCC MCP Compliance:
  - Serious Violation: [Yes/No]
  - Recent Penalties: [List]
[QCC MCP Trace: Risk Control Server]

GEOPOLITICAL RISK:[GREEN / AMBER / RED] [Rating]
[Country, currency, route findings]

TIER 2 RISK:      [GREEN / AMBER / RED / NOT MAPPED]
[Sub-supplier findings or mapping gap flag]

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS -- RANKED BY URGENCY
RED [IMMEDIATE -- this week]: [Action] -- [Owner]
AMBER [SHORT-TERM -- 30 days]: [Action] -- [Owner]
GREEN [PLANNED -- 90 days]:    [Action] -- [Owner]

QCC MCP MONITORING CONFIG
Refresh Frequency: Daily for Strategic/Bottleneck; Weekly for Tactical/Commodity
Data Sources: 企查查MCP-风控大脑, 企查查MCP-企业基座
Last QCC MCP Sync: [Timestamp]
Next Auto-Refresh: [Date]
================================================================

Executive Brief Format (for CPO weekly summary)

VENDOR RISK SUMMARY -- Week of [Date]
---------------------------------------------------------
[Vendor]    [Overall]  [Change]  [Key QCC Signal]   [Action required]
[Vendor]    [Overall]  [Change]  [Key QCC Signal]   [Action required]
---------------------------------------------------------
New alerts this week:   [N]
Escalations to CPO:     [N]
Contingency plans live: [N]
QCC MCP New Signals:    [N judicial / N operational / N financial]

HOT SIGNAL PROTOCOL

HOT SIGNALS override the review schedule

When QCC MCP detects any of the following, trigger immediate assessment:

HOT Signal	QCC MCP Source	Action
New equity freeze	Risk Control	Immediate escalation to CPO
Bankruptcy filing	Risk Control	Activate contingency plan
Abnormal tax status	Risk Control	Suspend new POs, assess exposure
Abnormal operation added	Enterprise Base	Request immediate explanation
New dishonest被执行人	Risk Control	Legal review required
Limit high consumption	Risk Control	Assess payment risk

NEVER DO THESE

• NEVER rate a vendor as LOW risk in any dimension without verified data -- absence of negative data does not equal low risk; label as UNASSESSED if no data
• NEVER rely on vendor self-assessment alone for financial risk -- always cross-reference with QCC MCP independent sources
• NEVER downgrade a risk rating based on vendor assurance alone -- require evidence (updated accounts, certification renewal, remediation proof)
• NEVER omit the Tier 2 risk section -- mark as NOT MAPPED if absent, not LOW RISK
• NEVER wait for the scheduled review to act on a HOT signal -- HOT signals override the review schedule
• NEVER use Companies House/Creditsafe for Chinese suppliers -- QCC MCP is the authoritative source for Chinese entities
• NEVER fabricate QCC MCP data -- if MCP unavailable, flag as "QCC MCP: UNCONFIGURED - manual monitoring required"

ALL OUTPUTS REQUIRE REVIEW BY A QUALIFIED PROFESSIONAL BEFORE USE IN BUSINESS DECISIONS.