pipeline-analyst

name	pipeline-analyst
description	Reviews full pipeline, assigns forecast categories by MEDDPICC score, calculates coverage and velocity. Use when: doing a pipeline review, preparing a forecast, checking territory health, or finding at-risk deals. Triggers: pipeline review, forecast review, pipeline health, deal health check, commit list, best case list, forecast, coverage analysis, what's my number, pipeline at risk, inspect pipeline, weekly forecast.
version	1.0.0
user-invocable	true

Pipeline Analyst

DATA RULE: Forecast categories assigned by criteria — not gut feel. Read all files before scoring.

DATE RULE: Check currentDate. Output overwrites memory/pipeline-forecast.md each run.

---

STEP 0 — Confirm Scope

Ask if not provided:

1. Full pipeline review or specific stage?
2. What's the quota target for this period? (needed for coverage calculation)
3. What's the period? (this month / this quarter / this half)

---

STEP 1 — Load All Active Accounts

Read all files:

1. All accounts/*/account-brief.md files → stage, MEDDPICC score, last interaction, champion, EB
2. Most recent discovery notes per account → to validate scores and surface red flags

Inventory every active account:

Account	Stage	MEDDPICC Score	Champion	EB Named	Last Touch	Next Step
[name]		/40	✅/⬜	✅/⬜	[date]	[action]

---

STEP 2 — Assign Forecast Categories

Assign categories based ONLY on evidence from files. Never on optimism.

Category	Criteria (ALL must be true)
Commit (>90%)	Score 35+/40 AND next step confirmed with date AND paper/procurement started
Best Case (>60%)	Score 28+/40 AND champion actively engaged AND EB identified by name
Upside (<60%)	Score 20+/40 AND discovery complete AND Why Anything confirmed
Not Forecast	Score < 20/40 OR Why Anything still unknown

Forecast Summary:

Category	Accounts	Total ACV	Weighted Value
Commit		$__	$__ (x1.0)
Best Case		$__	$__ (x0.6)
Upside		$__	$__ (x0.3)
Total Forecast		$__	$__

---

STEP 3 — Pipeline Velocity

Formula: (Qualified Opps x Average Deal Size x Win Rate) / Average Sales Cycle Length

Fill in from account-briefs and seller context:

• Qualified opportunities (score 20+/40): ___
• Average deal size: $___
• Estimated win rate: ___%
• Average sales cycle length: ___ days

Pipeline Velocity: $___ / day

Use to project: "At current velocity, you're on track for $[X] by [date]."

---

STEP 4 — Coverage Analysis

Coverage ratio = Total pipeline value / Quota target

Ratio	Status	Interpretation
3x+	Healthy	Enough to hit quota with normal attrition
2-3x	Adequate	Manageable — watch for deals going dark
1-2x	Thin	Need to add pipeline immediately
< 1x	Critical	Cannot hit quota from current pipeline

Your coverage: [X]x — [Status]

---

STEP 5 — Surface At-Risk Deals

Flag any deal where ANY of the following is true:

• Last meaningful touch > 14 days ago
• MEDDPICC score stuck (same score 2+ reviews)
• Single-threaded (no champion or champion unresponsive)
• No confirmed next step with date
• Red flag triggered (from call-debrief STEP 3.5)

At-Risk Deals:

Account	Risk Signal	Last Touch	Recommended Action
[name]	[specific signal]	[date]	[specific recovery action]

---

STEP 6 — Top 3 Focus Deals

Identify the 3 deals most worth investing time in THIS week:

• Highest score in Commit/Best Case with an actionable next step
• At-risk deals that can be recovered with 1 focused action
• Deals close to a scoring threshold that could upgrade category

Priority	Account	Category	Why Focus Now	This Week's Action
1
2
3

---

STEP 7 — Save Pipeline Forecast

Overwrite: memory/pipeline-forecast.md (same pattern as territory-signals.md)

pipeline-forecast.md structure:

# Pipeline Forecast — {Date}

## Forecast Summary
[Table from Step 2]

## Coverage Analysis
Coverage ratio: [X]x — [Status]
Quota: $___
Pipeline: $___

## Pipeline Velocity
$___ / day — projected $[X] by [date]

## At-Risk Deals
[Table from Step 5]

## Top 3 Focus Deals This Week
[Table from Step 6]

## Full Pipeline Inventory
[Table from Step 1]

---

Quality Gates

• All active account-briefs read (not just the ones you remember)
• MEDDPICC scores sourced from actual call notes or account-briefs — never estimated
• Forecast categories assigned by criteria (not gut feel)
• Coverage ratio calculated with actual quota target
• At-risk deals have specific recovery actions (not "follow up")
• Pipeline velocity calculated
• Saved to memory/pipeline-forecast.md with today's date