| name | statistical-experimental-evaluation |
| description | Design and run statistical experiments that test the formal problem, proposed methods, theoretical predictions, baselines, and ablations.
|
| metadata | {"category":"domain","trigger-keywords":"experiment,simulation,evaluation,comparison,baseline,ablation,metrics,diagnostics,statistical evidence","applicable-stages":"7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14","priority":"1"} |
Statistical Experimental Evaluation
Overview
Use this skill after formulation, method proposal, and theory. Experiments
should test specific claims and theoretical predictions.
Experiment Plan
Define:
- Conditions or data-generating processes
- Real data source or synthetic data generator
- Sample sizes, folds, repetitions, seeds, or resamples
- Proposed method
- Baselines
- Ablations
- Diagnostics
- Metrics
- Failure accounting
Required Artifacts
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/config.yaml
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/src/
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/results/metrics.json
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/results/run_manifest.json
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/results/comparison_summary.md
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/results/claim_verdicts.json
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/report/paper.md
experiments/<TOPIC_ID>/README.md
Evidence Schema
Use a row-oriented metric format:
{
"topic_id": "TXX",
"metric_rows": [
{
"claim_id": "C1",
"method": "proposed_method",
"baseline": "standard_method",
"condition": "stress_condition",
"metric": "risk",
"value": 0.12,
"status": "ok"
}
]
}
Claim verdicts should connect theory and experiments:
[
{
"claim_id": "C1",
"verdict": "supported",
"theory_support": "Proposition 1 under A1-A3",
"experimental_support": "Proposed method has lower risk in conditions X-Y",
"comparison": "Outperforms baseline B on metric M",
"limitations": "Finite sample only; assumption A2 not tested"
}
]
Evidence Rules
- A metric must map to a formulated claim.
- A comparison must use the same data conditions across methods.
- Failed runs must be counted.
- Runtime reductions must be recorded.
- Results must be interpreted against theoretical predictions.
