polyclaw

name	polyclaw
description	AI-powered news edge scanner and auto-trader for Polymarket. Ingests real-time news from 10+ sources, matches to Polymarket markets using category-aware fuzzy matching, estimates probability shifts, detects fee-adjusted trading edges, and auto-trades via CLOB API.
version	1.1.0
license	MIT
allowed-tools	Read,Write,Bash(python:*),WebFetch

Polyclaw

Prerequisites

• Python 3.10+
• pip packages: feedparser httpx rich pandas rapidfuzz
• For LLM mode: Gemini CLI installed at /opt/homebrew/bin/gemini

Quick Start

# Install dependencies
cd polyclaw/src
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Run a single scan
python scanner.py --scan

# Scan with Gemini LLM analysis
python scanner.py --scan --use-llm

# Pure LLM-only mode (skip rule-based matching)
python scanner.py --scan --llm-only

# View and manage open positions
python scanner.py --positions

# Run continuous monitoring
python scanner.py --monitor --interval 60

# Custom settings
python scanner.py --scan --min-edge 0.05 --bankroll 5000

What's New (v1.1)

• 🤖 Gemini LLM Integration — --use-llm merges LLM signals with rule-based analysis; --llm-only for pure LLM scanning
• 📈 Position Management — Auto take-profit (+15%), stop-loss (-10%), 24h timeout with live price tracking
• 🇨🇳 Chinese Media Sources — BlockBeats and PANews for crypto-native Chinese market intelligence
• 8 data sources total — Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, CoinGecko, Fear & Greed, BlockBeats, PANews

Architecture

News Sources (8: RSS/APIs + Chinese media)
        │
        ▼
news_ingestion.py ──► Fetch + deduplicate + cache to news_feed.json
        │
        ▼
event_parser.py ◄──── market_cache.py (Polymarket Gamma API, 5-min TTL)
  │ Category-aware matching (crypto/politics/sports/economics/tech/geopolitics)
  │ Entity extraction (English + Chinese NLP)
  │ Negation-aware sentiment analysis
  │ Fuzzy matching with specificity gates
        │
        ▼
probability_engine.py ◄── llm_analyzer.py (optional, Gemini 2.5 Flash)
  │ Per-market signal aggregation
  │ LLM signal merging (when --use-llm)
  │ Directional shift logic (YES=up vs YES=down)
  │ Source credibility weighting
  │ Volume dampening for liquid markets
        │
        ▼
edge_calculator.py
  │ Polymarket fee schedule modeling
  │ Fee-adjusted edge computation
  │ Kelly criterion position sizing
        │
        ▼
position_manager.py
  │ Open/close paper positions
  │ Auto take-profit / stop-loss
  │ 24h timeout exit
        │
        ▼
scanner.py ──► Rich terminal UI with color-coded tables

Module Descriptions

news_ingestion.py

Fetches news from RSS feeds (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, The Block, Google News), CoinGecko trending, Fear & Greed Index, BlockBeats, and PANews (Chinese crypto media). Deduplicates by content hash. Rolling cache of 100 items.

market_cache.py

Queries Polymarket Gamma API for top 100 active markets by volume. 5-minute cache TTL.

event_parser.py

Category-aware matching with entity extraction (English + Chinese NLP), negation-aware sentiment, market question parsing, and LLM integration via parse_with_llm().

probability_engine.py

Multi-signal aggregation with directional logic, source weighting, volume dampening, and merge_llm_estimates() for combining rule-based and LLM signals.

edge_calculator.py

Models Polymarket's taker fee schedule. Fee-adjusted edge for YES/NO sides. Kelly criterion sizing.

llm_analyzer.py

Calls Gemini 2.5 Flash via CLI for structured news→market analysis. Batches up to 20 news items against all markets. Returns typed LLMSignal objects.

position_manager.py

Tracks paper trading positions with:

• Take-profit: +15% from entry → auto close
• Stop-loss: -10% from entry → auto close
• Timeout: 24h with <2% move → close (signal expired)
• Max 5 open positions, 10% per position, 30% total exposure

scanner.py

CLI orchestrator. Modes: --scan, --monitor, --positions. Flags: --use-llm, --llm-only.

Configuration

Parameter	Default	Description
--min-edge	0.03 (3%)	Minimum edge after fees
--bankroll	$1,000	Paper trading bankroll
--interval	60s	Monitor scan interval
--use-llm	off	Add Gemini LLM analysis
--llm-only	off	Pure LLM mode
--positions	—	View/manage positions