run-episode

name	run-episode
description	The single entry point that executes a Public Portfolio Challenge episode or attempt runbook end-to-end, delegating each stage to the functional skills. Use when asked to run/execute/replay an episode — e.g. 'run episode 10', 'execute episode 11 attempt 3', 'run the bakeoff', 'replay the runbook' — with the NexusTrade MCP connected. Reads the target runbook, pins its real artifacts (IDs, the incumbent bar), sequences the stages, and stops at the gated deploy. It orchestrates; the functional skills do the work.
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"Austin Starks","version":"1.0.0","created":"2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z","last_reviewed":"2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z","review_interval_days":90}
activation	/run-episode
provenance	{"maintainer":"Austin Starks","source":"public-portfolio-challenge episode-10 / episode-11 runbooks"}

Run Episode

The orchestrator entry point for the Public Portfolio Challenge. Every episode is a specific job over specific real artifacts, but the discipline is the same and lives in the functional skills. This skill picks the right runbook, pins its artifacts, and runs the stages in order, delegating each to the skill that owns it. It does not re-implement the discipline — it sequences it.

Invocation

/run-episode <episode>[ <attempt>]

Examples: /run-episode 10 · /run-episode 11 attempt 3 · "run the episode-10 bakeoff" · "execute episode 11 attempt 2".

First: load the actual runbook (it is the source of truth for THIS run)

Read the target runbook and treat it as authoritative for the job + artifacts (this skill only encodes the ordering and delegation):

Episode	Runbook	Shape
10	episode-10/BAKEOFF_RUNBOOK.md	Multi-family bakeoff (search→certify→lockbox→deploy)
11 / attempt 1	episode-11/attempt1/RUNBOOK.md	Certify the live book; re-optimize on FAIL
11 / attempt 2	episode-11/attempt2/RUNBOOK.md	Repair participation, re-certify
11 / attempt 3	episode-11/attempt3/RUNBOOK.md	Alt-data on the certified book, prove OOS

From the runbook, pin before doing anything: the SUBJECT (live book / build) IDs, the incumbent bar (cert study id + per-fold numbers), the fixed universe + capital, and any carried-over artifacts. The runbook's own Stage list wins if it disagrees with the generic ordering below.

The bookend rules (fixed for every episode)

• Stage A first — confirm the SUBJECT by FIELD (get_portfolio → conditionFieldAudit), re-verify the incumbent bar, spot-check one fresh backtest, and (if live) check pending orders + automaticOrderApproval. Deliver a one-paragraph before state.
• Deploy last, and GATED — no clone, no reconcile, no orders until the human says the episode's explicit go phrase ("deploy + clean up"). See deploy-gate.
• Bugs are a deliverable at every stage — bug-protocol on any failure; quarantine tainted results.
• Verify, don't assert — every engine-behavior claim checked against events/fields/repro (via portfolio-certification's first principles) before it lands in the log.

Episode 10 — the bakeoff sequence

Delegates, in order:

1. engine-sanity — S0 contract checks. STOP on any failure. (These don't count toward the cert body.)
2. lockbox-holdout — load A/B/C baselines as OOS bars (S1); run the S1.5 gate-coherence auto-relax.
3. strategy-bakeoff — the SEARCH→CERTIFY funnel: ≥3 families, per-family ledger, verdict-integrity. Each promoted seed is certified through walk-forward-oos + breadth-audit, held to options-structure-rules (hard gates) and sweep-reoptimization (re-sweep from a clean seed).
4. lockbox-holdout — the single-touch lockbox confirmation on the frozen finalist (S2).
5. deploy-gate — GATED. Discover the live target via fetch_portfolios, owner-confirm, clone, field-verify, re-attach monitoring.

Episode 11 — the certify / repair / alt-data sequence

The attempts share a spine; the middle differs:

1. Stage A baseline + inventory (bookend rule above). For attempt 2, reproduce the live collapse with hard numbers first (query_portfolio_events) before fixing.
2. The middle (attempt-specific):
   • attempt 1 — certify: walk-forward-oos backtest_only on the fixed live book → portfolio-certification holistic PASS/FAIL. On FAIL → sweep-reoptimization.
   • attempt 2 — repair participation: breadth-audit at fixed $25k to quantify the collapse → sweep-reoptimization over the sizing levers (structural change ⇒ re-sweep) → re-cert.
   • attempt 3 — alt-data: alt-data-indicators (build/verify the custom indicators) → hand-built variant grid → walk-forward-oos calendar-aligned cert vs the incumbent. (Signal-freshness gate is real — see the attempt-3 runbook's blocker.)
3. options-structure-rules hard-gate + breadth-audit gate on every finalist.
4. Present, then stop — verdict up top, per-fold OOS table, side-by-side vs incumbent, provenance labels, honest caveats, bug ledger. No deploy.
5. deploy-gate — GATED on the explicit go, for the named finalist only.

What this skill guarantees

• The bookends are never skipped (Stage-A field-verify first; deploy gated last).
• Each stage runs through the skill that owns its checks, so the verdict is holistic OOS, breadth is at fixed $25k, structural changes force a re-sweep, and every parameter carries provenance.
• A null result is a valid outcome — the orchestrator does not torture variants to manufacture a win.

If the target runbook adds, renames, or reorders stages, follow the runbook — this skill is the default spine, not an override.