parallax-macro-outlook

name

parallax-macro-outlook

description

Full macro regime analysis with optional equity screening: country coverage, economic outlook, regime signals, factor tilt implications, and top-scoring equities in the target market via Parallax MCP tools. Anchored on the regime question ('what is the regime in [market]?'). NOT for country/region equity discovery ('what should I buy in [country]?' — use /parallax-country-deep-dive), not for portfolio-level morning briefs (use /parallax-morning-brief), not for single stock analysis (use /parallax-deep-dive).

Macro Outlook

When not to use

• Country/region equity discovery ("what should I buy in [country]?") → use /parallax-country-deep-dive — that skill answers the allocation question with a view-tilted ranking; this skill answers the regime question, and its optional equity census is deliberately untilted
• Portfolio morning brief → use /parallax-morning-brief
• Single stock analysis → use /parallax-deep-dive or /parallax-should-i-buy
• Thematic screening across all markets → use /parallax-thematic-screen
• Reacting to a specific news event → use /parallax-scenario-analysis
• Regime-driven directional trade ideas for a specific ticker → use /parallax-ai-soros

Gotchas

• list_macro_countries shows available coverage — check before querying a country
• check_macro_health verifies data freshness — run first to avoid stale analysis
• macro_analyst summary call returns all 9 components inline — do not make separate per-component calls
• get_telemetry shows how macro regime affects the scoring engine
• Smaller/EM markets may have fewer scored equities — set expectations
• JIT-load _parallax/house-view/loader.md UNCONDITIONALLY — §5 rule 3 (ground-truth check), rule 6 (AI disclosure), and §6 (audit log) apply whether or not a view is active. macro-outlook answers the regime question, so neither §3 multipliers nor §7 single-stock conflict-surfacing apply: the macro narrative reflects live data, and the optional Batch C equity census is deliberately untilted — it is an illustrative exhibit of which equities score well in this regime, not a discovery ranking. A user who wants the view-tilted "what should I buy in [country]" ranking belongs in /parallax-country-deep-dive (that skill applies §3 to its Top Opportunities by design). Apply a macro-regime-alignment mode (defined inline below — call it §7.4 by analogy) — render a divergence note when the view's stated macro regime contradicts live get_telemetry.regime_tag. No scoring math is altered. Standard surface: §2 (load + validate), §5 (preamble), §6 (audit log).
• §7.4 macro-regime-alignment mode (this skill's pattern, not in loader.md): if the active view's basis_statement or stated macro regime (e.g., "recessionary", "expansion", "stagflation", from view.macro_regime if present) materially conflicts with the regime returned by get_telemetry.regime_tag, render a "View regime: | Live regime: " line directly under the House View Preamble at the very top of Output Format. The user is informed of the disagreement; the analytical content still reflects live data (live wins for macro narrative). If no view, or view is silent on macro regime, omit the line.
• When active view is present, use the view-aware disclaimer per loader.md §5 rule 5; otherwise use the standard disclaimer.
• JIT-load _parallax/white-label/integration-pattern.md before the Pre-Render step. Loader call is load_visual_branding() (7-key visual subset; voice structurally excluded — branding["voice"] raises KeyError). Apply §5 (Branding Header) and §7 (About This Report) in Output Format.
• Optional audience= argument: client_safe | internal_analyst; precedence follows parallax-conventions.md §13.1.

Deep macro regime analysis with optional equity opportunity screening. Covers any of Parallax's 40+ global markets.

Usage

/parallax-macro-outlook "United States"
/parallax-macro-outlook "Japan" equities=true
/parallax-macro-outlook "China" component=tactical
/parallax-macro-outlook — compare US, Europe, Japan
/parallax-macro-outlook "United States" audience=client_safe

Workflow

Execute using mcp__claude_ai_Parallax__* tools. JIT-load _parallax/parallax-conventions.md for execution mode and fallback patterns.

Pre-Workflow — Load Active House View

Per _parallax/house-view/loader.md §1 and §2: load and validate any active house view BEFORE running the workflow. If view present, capture the load preamble for rendering at the top of Output Format per §5.1, and capture view.macro_regime (or equivalent regime statement from basis_statement) — applied in Post-Workflow §7.4 regime-alignment check. If no active view (or validation failure): run the workflow normally with the standard disclaimer. Loader.md §5 rule 3 (ground-truth check), rule 6 (AI disclosure), and §6 (audit) still apply on the no-view path.

Batch 0 — Tool Loading

Call ToolSearch with query "+Parallax" to load the deferred MCP tool schemas before the first mcp__claude_ai_Parallax__* call.

Batch A — Coverage + regime (parallel)

Tool	Parameters	Notes
list_macro_countries	—	Confirm markets
check_macro_health	—	Data freshness
get_telemetry	fields: regime_tag, signals, commentary.headline, commentary.mechanism, divergences	Market regime

Batch B — Macro depth (after Batch A)

1. Call macro_analyst for the target country (summary — no component parameter). The summary call returns all 9 components inline (macro_indicators, tactical, fixed_income, currency, sectors, sector_positioning, liquidity, news, factors). Do not make separate per-component calls.
2. Call get_score_analysis for a market bellwether stock (e.g., AAPL.O for US, 7203.T for Japan). ETFs are not in the scoring universe.
3. If multiple countries: repeat for each and compare.

Batch C — Equity opportunities (optional, after Batch B)

If requested: call build_stock_universe with query="[country] equities". For top 5: get_peer_snapshot AND get_company_info per symbol (all parallel — get_company_info is the ground-truth oracle per loader.md §5 rule 3, required view or no view whenever per-holding scores render). Cross-check each get_peer_snapshot.target_company against the name-of-record; on mismatch, flag ⚠ MISMATCH and recover per rule 3. For top 3: get_score_analysis 26 weeks (parallel). The census stays untilted regardless of view state (see Gotchas — tilted discovery is /parallax-country-deep-dive's job).

Post-Workflow — §7.4 Regime alignment check + §6 audit

If a view was loaded in Pre-Workflow:

1. Extract view's stated macro regime: prefer view.macro_regime if present; otherwise scan basis_statement for regime keywords ("recessionary", "expansion", "stagflation", "soft landing", "hard landing", "reflationary", "disinflationary"). If no regime statement can be extracted, skip the alignment check (regime alignment is opt-in based on view content).
2. Compare to get_telemetry.regime_tag returned in Batch A.
3. If regimes materially diverge (e.g., view says "recessionary" but live says "expansion"), prepare a one-line divergence note for Output Format rendering: View regime: <view_regime> | Live regime: <live_regime> — note the disagreement; analytical content below reflects live data.

Always append the §6 audit log entry per loader.md §6.1 — view or no view (applied=false with applied_reason: "no_view" when none, view_id/version_id null per §6.1; include ground_truth_mismatches per §6.2 when any Batch C row was flagged).

Pre-Render — Load white-label branding

Load _parallax/white-label/integration-pattern.md §2 and compute white_label_active + client_name per that section. Apply §5 (Branding Header) and §7 (About This Report) when composing the Output Format. The loader returns exactly seven keys; any other access (e.g. branding["voice"]) raises KeyError — structurally enforced by loader.py.

Output Format

• House View Preamble (only if view active) — render per loader.md §5 rule 1 (banner from Pre-Workflow + low-confidence warnings). If §7.4 regime-alignment check produced a divergence note (Post-Workflow step 3), append it as a sub-line under the preamble. Per loader.md §5.1 the preamble goes at the very top — it precedes the Branding Header.
• Branding Header (only if white_label_active AND client_name != "") — single line immediately below the House View Preamble (or at the very top if no view): **<client_name>** macro outlook. Logo handling per integration-pattern.md §5: empty path → text only; URL → embed; absolute local (/ or ~) → skip embed and append Logo on file: <basename> to About This Report.
• Regime Status (current regime tag, key signals, headline)
• Plain-Language Summary (under audience=client_safe only): 2-3 sentences restating the regime read in plain language for a non-specialist reader; factor names carry the §13.3 gloss, no cutoff arithmetic, framed per §12 as informational with no directives.
• Macro Summary (country-level economic overview)
• Deep Dive (macro indicators, fixed income, tactical components as requested)
• Factor Regime Interaction (which factors are favored/disfavored in this environment; under audience=client_safe, factor names carry the §13.3 gloss)
• Regime Implications (which factors and sectors the regime read favors/disfavors — informational per conventions §12)
• Ground-truth Integrity (only if equity screening included AND any mismatch detected — table: input_ticker, returned_name, expected_name, status, per loader.md §5 rule 3)
• Top Equity Opportunities (if equity screening included: table with symbol, name, sector, score, trend — names are the get_company_info names-of-record; ⚠ MISMATCH rows flagged inline; untilted by design). Universe caveat: rankings cover listed equities with Parallax factor coverage only — funds/OEICs are not screened.
• Data Freshness (when macro data was last updated)
• About This Report (always present): one line stating branding state per integration-pattern.md §7 markdown column (render per table; do not collapse). If a logo was skipped per the Branding Header rule, append Logo on file: <basename> as a second About This Report line. Always append the §7 currency line: Currency: figures as reported by source data; no base-currency conversion applied. Under audience=client_safe, append the §13.4 mode line.

AI-interaction disclosure (required regardless of view state): Render parallax-conventions.md §9.2 immediately above the disclaimer below.

If active view: use the view-aware disclaimer per loader.md §5 rule 5. Otherwise: render the standard disclaimer verbatim from parallax-conventions.md §9.1.