polymarket-ai-divergence

name	polymarket-ai-divergence
description	Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade on the mispriced side using Kelly sizing. Scans for divergence, checks fees and safeguards, and executes trades on zero-fee markets with sufficient edge.

Polymarket AI Divergence Trader

Find markets where Simmer's AI consensus diverges from the real market price, then trade the edge.

This is a template. The default logic trades when AI divergence exceeds 2% on zero-fee markets, using Kelly sizing capped at 25%. Remix it with different edge thresholds, sizing strategies, or additional filters (e.g., only trade markets resolving within 7 days). The skill handles plumbing (divergence scanning, fee checks, safeguards, execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

What It Does

1. Scans all active markets for AI vs market price divergence
2. Filters to markets with edge above threshold (default 2%) and zero fees
3. Checks safeguards (flip-flop detection, existing positions)
4. Sizes using Kelly criterion, capped conservatively
5. Executes trades on the mispriced side (YES when AI is bullish, NO when bearish)

Quick Commands

# Scan only (dry run, no trades)
python ai_divergence.py

# Scan + execute trades
python ai_divergence.py --live

# Only show bullish divergences
python ai_divergence.py --bullish

# Only >15% divergence
python ai_divergence.py --min 15

# JSON output
python ai_divergence.py --json

# Cron mode (quiet, trades only)
python ai_divergence.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python ai_divergence.py --config


python ai_divergence.py -- max_bet_usd=10