vix-panic-reversion

name	vix-panic-reversion
description	Evaluate the VIX panic-reversion setup where VIX spikes above 35 and exits are considered after volatility normalizes below 20.
metadata	{"marketbot":{"emoji":"😱","triggers":["vix > 35","vix above 35","vix below 20","vix strategy","panic reversion","volatility washout","恐慌抄底","vix抄底","vix策略","波动率回落","恐慌指数","vix高于35","vix低于20","vix 自动提醒","vix监控","vix提醒"],"output":"vix-panic-reversion-report","risk":"high","freshness":"market-live","tools":["market_snapshot","market_macro","market_news","market_signal"],"required_tools":["market_snapshot","market_macro"],"markets":["us","global"],"asset_classes":["equity","etf","macro"],"task_type":"volatility-regime","determinism":"tool-backed","priority":88}}

VIX Panic Reversion

Use this skill when the user wants to evaluate a panic-buying setup based on extreme volatility, usually expressed as:

• enter or scale in when VIX > 35
• reduce or exit when VIX < 20

Treat this as a regime-based mean-reversion framework, not a guaranteed edge. The user-supplied premise is that the setup worked in most past panic spikes, with 2008 as the main failure case. Do not restate it as "near 100%" or "must win".

When to use

• The user asks whether a VIX spike is a buy-the-dip signal.
• The user mentions VIX > 35, panic, washout, capitulation, or volatility normalization.
• The user wants a rule-based re-entry/exit plan for broad US equity ETFs after panic selling.
• The user asks for a recurring monitor, reminder, or alert when VIX > 35 or VIX < 20.

Recurring Alert Requests

If the user asks for 自动提醒, 监控, 提醒, or alert:

1. Treat it as a monitoring request first, not a long strategy explanation.
2. Check the agent workspace HEARTBEAT.md.
3. If a matching VIX monitor task already exists, reply briefly that the monitor is already configured.
4. If it does not exist, add a concise heartbeat task that:
   • checks VIX
   • alerts when VIX > 35
   • optionally notes normalization when VIX < 20
5. After the task is confirmed, reply in one short paragraph. Do not write a long market analysis unless the user asks for it.

Workflow

1. Use market_snapshot to check live readings for VIX, SPY, and QQQ.
2. Use market_macro to identify whether the volatility spike is tied to:
   • systemic stress
   • policy shock
   • credit/liquidity stress
   • one-off growth scare
3. Use market_news to verify whether the panic is broad-market and not just a single-stock event.
4. Use market_signal to judge whether conditions are stabilizing or still accelerating downward.

Decision Rules

Classify the setup into one of three states:

• Valid panic-reversion candidate Conditions:
  • VIX >= 35
  • broad index drawdown is market-wide
  • no evidence of worsening systemic credit/liquidity failure
  • panic is flattening rather than accelerating
• Watch only Conditions:
  • VIX is elevated but below 35, or
  • VIX >= 35 but the shock is still intensifying
• Avoid Conditions:
  • evidence resembles a structural crisis, funding stress, or forced deleveraging regime
  • volatility is high and still rising with no stabilization signs

Positioning Guidance

• Favor staggered entries over all-in entries.
• Prefer broad ETFs such as SPY or QQQ over weak single names unless the user explicitly wants stock-level trades.
• If the setup is active, describe scaling bands instead of a single perfect entry.
• If VIX cannot be verified live, say the setup is unverified.

Exit Guidance

• Primary normalization trigger: VIX < 20
• Also consider partial exits when:
  • panic premium compresses quickly
  • price rebounds into major resistance
  • macro event risk remains unresolved even after volatility cools

Output Format

# VIX Panic Reversion Check

- Setup state: Valid panic-reversion candidate / Watch only / Avoid
- Live VIX status:
- Broad market status:
- Shock type:
- Why this does or does not qualify:

## Action Plan
- Entry framework:
- Scaling approach:
- Invalidations:
- Exit framework:

## Risk Notes
- This setup is historical and regime-dependent, not guaranteed.
- Structural-crisis conditions can break the pattern.

Rules

• Never describe the strategy as guaranteed, risk-free, or "100% win rate".
• Always state whether the current setup is confirmed by live data or only discussed as a historical template.
• If evidence points to a 2008-style liquidity or systemic event, bias to Avoid.