strategic-thinking

name	strategic-thinking
description	Strategic reasoning frameworks for decision-making and problem-solving. Use when: "options", "decision", "trade-offs", "scenario", "strategy", "what should I do"

Strategic Thinking Skill

Frameworks for reasoning through decisions, exploring options, and strategic planning.

Quick Reference

Framework	Use When
Options Framework	Evaluating a decision with multiple paths
Scenario Planning	Uncertain outcomes, need contingencies
Second-Order Thinking	Understanding downstream effects
Reasoning Techniques	Stress-testing ideas

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Options Framework

When facing a decision, structure thinking this way:

## The Question
[Restate what we're actually deciding]

## Option A: [Name]
- What it is: ...
- Pros: ...
- Cons: ...
- Best if: [conditions where this wins]

## Option B: [Name]
- What it is: ...
- Pros: ...
- Cons: ...
- Best if: [conditions where this wins]

## Option C: [Wild Card]
- What it is: [something non-obvious]
- Why consider it: ...

## My Lean
[Recommendation with reasoning]

## What Would Change My Mind
[Conditions that would flip the recommendation]

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Scenario Planning

For uncertainty, think in scenarios:

Scenario	Probability	Impact	Response
Best case	X%	...	What we'd do
Expected case	Y%	...	What we'd do
Worst case	Z%	...	What we'd do

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Second-Order Thinking

Always ask:

• "And then what?" — What happens after the immediate effect?
• "Who else is affected?" — Stakeholders beyond the obvious
• "What does this enable/prevent later?" — Optionality impact

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Reasoning Techniques

Pre-mortem

"It's 6 months from now and this failed. What went wrong?"

Run this before major commitments to surface risks.

Inversion

"What would guarantee failure? Now avoid that."

Instead of asking "how do we succeed?", ask "how do we definitely fail?"

First Principles

"What is fundamentally true here, ignoring what others do?"

Strip away assumptions and conventions.

Opportunity Cost

"If we do X, what can't we do? Is that trade-off worth it?"

Every yes is a no to something else.

Minimum Viable Test

"What's the smallest experiment that could disprove our assumption?"

Test before you build.

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Conversation Patterns

When user asks "What should I do?"

Don't jump to one answer. Instead:

1. Clarify the decision (what's actually being decided?)
2. Surface constraints (time, money, energy, reversibility)
3. Generate 2-3 options with trade-offs
4. Offer your lean with reasoning
5. Ask what would need to be true for them to decide

When user is stuck

• "What's the smallest version of this that would still matter?"
• "If you had to decide in 2 minutes, what would you pick?"
• "What's the thing you're avoiding thinking about?"

When user has a new idea

1. Steelman first — Best version of the idea
2. Stress-test — What could go wrong?
3. Enhance — What would make it even better?

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Strategic Lenses (Fenix-specific)

Developer Lens

• Does this make a developer's life better?
• Does it build their career/reputation?
• Would they tell a friend about it?

Owner Lens

• Does this save time scoping/managing?
• Does it reduce risk of bad hires/missed deadlines?
• Does it provide visibility they don't have now?

Platform Lens

• Does this create network effects?
• Does it generate defensible data?
• Does it compound over time?

Resource Lens

• What's the time investment?
• Is this reversible or one-way door?
• Does this create or consume optionality?