position-exit-manager

name

position-exit-manager

description

Decide when to exit, trim, add to, or hold each current holding. Layers an ATR chandelier trailing stop, R:R take-profit, and linked-prediction thesis invalidation on top of the portfolio. Use when the user asks to check positions, where to set stops, when to take profit, or whether to sell. Triggers on "포지션 점검", "손절", "익절", "트레일링 스탑", "언제 팔아", "exit check", "trim", "take profit", "when to sell", "stop loss", "trailing stop".

Position Exit Manager

Advisory exit-decision layer for existing holdings. For each position it emits one of five actions — EXIT / TRIM / ADD / WATCH / HOLD — by combining an ATR chandelier trailing stop, an R:R take-profit band, MA-stack structure, and the holding's latest linked prediction (thesis).

This skill is advisory only: it never sells, never edits predictions. It tells you what to consider; you decide and record any trade via portfolio buy/sell.

When to Use

• "포지션 점검해줘", "지금 손절해야 돼?", "익절 타이밍이야?", "트레일링 스탑 어디?"
• "Should I sell X?", "where's my stop?", "is it time to take profit?"
• After a daily-briefing portfolio review, to get per-position exit guidance.
• Whenever a holding's prediction has resolved and you want a structural check.

Prerequisites

• A portfolio must exist with positions (see portfolio-eval to set one up).
• Network access for live prices (US: yfinance, KR: pykrx). Provider failures degrade gracefully — the affected ticker downgrades to WATCH, never a silent HOLD.

Workflow

Step 1: Run the exit check

./bin/stock-cli portfolio exit-check --market {US|KR}
# Optional tuning:
./bin/stock-cli portfolio exit-check --market US --atr-mult 3.0 --tp-rr 2.0

The CLI fetches ~300 bars per holding, computes horizon metrics + ATR(14) + the ~22-bar swing high, looks up the holding's predictions, and prints JSON with one entry per position.

Step 2: Read the decision table

For each position the JSON carries action, triggered_rules, atr, trailing_stop, ma_status, overextension_level, pnl_pct, and the linked_prediction ({id, direction, status, target, stop, rr_progress}).

Action	Meaning	Typical triggers
EXIT	Hard risk-off — get out	price < linked stop, prediction MISS, close below MA200, or price < ATR chandelier trailing stop
TRIM	Take partial profit	realized R:R ≥ tp-rr (default 2.0), EXTREME overextension with >+20% gain, or MA20<MA50 stack break while still profitable
ADD	Pyramid into strength	overextension NONE, RSI 45–65, MA20>MA50>MA200 intact, gain in [0,+20%], no contradicting BEAR prediction
WATCH	Mixed / insufficient data	missing price or metrics, or signals that don't resolve cleanly
HOLD	Trend intact, nothing fired	above MA200, no trailing-stop breach, R:R below the TP band

Precedence is hardest-risk-off first: EXIT > TRIM > ADD > WATCH > HOLD. The first rule that matches wins, so an EXIT trigger always overrides a coincident TRIM/ADD.

Step 3: Synthesize a Korean-first review

Present per position, Korean-first:

1. 결론 (action) with the Korean hint (reason_ko_hint) expanded into a full sentence — e.g. "EXIT: MA200 이탈로 추세 손상, 청산 검토".
2. 근거 — translate triggered_rules into plain Korean, citing the numbers (현재가, 트레일링 스탑, R:R 진행률, 손절선).
3. 수익률 (pnl_pct) and the linked thesis status if present.
4. 다음 행동 — concrete next step (전량 청산 / 일부 익절 / 추가매수 / 관망 / 보유).

For WATCH entries, state explicitly what data was missing so the user knows it is a data gap, not a recommendation to do nothing.

Notes on the math

• ATR chandelier trailing stop = swing_high(~22 bars) − atr_mult × ATR(14). ATR uses Wilder true-range smoothing. atr_mult defaults to 3.0.
• Effective stop for the R:R take-profit = max(linked stop, ATR trailing stop). Realized R = (price − avg) / (avg − effective_stop). When the trailing stop has ratcheted above cost (a risk-free position) the R:R rule stops firing by design — you let the winner run.
• Linking: a holding links to its latest-by-created_at OPEN prediction. The MISS-invalidation EXIT also inspects the latest prediction overall. "No linked prediction" is a non-blocking skip — structural rules still run.

See references/exit_rules.md for the full derivation, the R:R band rationale, and the fixed-lookback approximation caveat.

Resources

• references/exit_rules.md: ATR/chandelier math, R:R band rationale, the fixed-22-bar swing-high approximation and its limits.