thesis-tracker

name	thesis-tracker
description	Track and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist. Maintains scorecard of pillars, catalysts, and conviction level. Triggers on "update thesis", "thesis check", "is my thesis intact", "add data point", "review positions".

Thesis Tracker

Maintain investment theses with structured tracking of pillars, evidence, and catalysts.

Step 1: Load or Create Thesis

New thesis — collect:

• Ticker + market (BYMA/US/crypto)
• Direction: Long or Short
• Core thesis: 1-2 sentences (e.g., "Long GGAL — margin expansion from rate normalization + deposit growth as inflation drops")
• 3-5 key pillars (supporting arguments)
• 3-5 key risks (what invalidates the thesis)
• Catalysts with dates (earnings, regulatory, macro events)
• Target price + time horizon
• Stop-loss trigger (price or fundamental)
• Position size (% of portfolio)

Existing thesis: load from project files or ask user for current state.

Step 2: Pillar Scorecard

Maintain running scorecard:

Pillar	Original Expectation	Current Status	Evidence	Trend
Revenue growth >15%	On track	Q3 was 18% YoY	10-Q filed 11/8	Stable
Margin expansion	Behind	EBITDA margin flat	Earnings call	Concerning
Catalyst pending	Watching	Reg decision delayed	Press release	Watch

Trend values: Confirming / Stable / Concerning / Broken

Step 3: Update Log

For each new data point:

• Date: when it happened
• Event: what changed (earnings, macro, competitor, regulatory)
• Impact: which pillar affected, how (strengthens/weakens/neutral)
• Action: hold / add / trim / exit
• Conviction: High / Medium / Low (updated)

Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Date	Event	Ticker	Expected Impact	Status
				Pending/Done/Missed

Step 5: AR-Specific Tracking (if applicable)

For CEDEARs:

• Track underlying ADR price + CEDEAR price + CCL implicit
• Calculate premium/discount vs theoretical parity
• Flag when premium >5% or discount >3%

For bonds (soberanos/corporativos):

• Track TIR, duration, paridad
• Spread vs benchmark (US Treasury or similar)
• Next coupon date and amortization schedule

For CCL/MEP:

• Track spread (CCL - MEP) / MEP
• Settlement dates (T+1 vs T+2)
• Parking requirement compliance

Step 6: Thesis Health Summary

Output format:

═══ THESIS: [TICKER] — [LONG/SHORT] ═══
Core: [thesis statement]
Conviction: [High/Medium/Low] (was: [previous])
Pillars: [N/M on track]  Risks: [N/M active]
Next catalyst: [event] on [date]
Last updated: [date]

⚠️ ALERTS:
- [pillar X] showing weakness: [evidence]
- [catalyst Y] missed deadline

Important Notes

• Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming
• If >50% of pillars are Concerning or Broken → force re-evaluation
• Quarterly review mandatory even if nothing dramatic happened
• For portfolio-wide review: show all theses sorted by conviction, flag any with deteriorating trend
• A thesis without a falsification condition is not a thesis — reject it