observability-driven-testing

name	observability-driven-testing
description	Use production telemetry as INPUT to design new tests. Covers OpenTelemetry integration with tests, trace-based assertions, log-informed test creation, production-error analysis for coverage gaps, and telemetry-driven test prioritization. Use when: "trace-based testing," "design tests from logs," "OpenTelemetry assertions," "production errors point to test gaps," "telemetry-driven testing." Not for: safe rollout techniques (flags, canary) during release — use testing-in-production. Not for: scheduled post-deploy probes — use synthetic-monitoring. Not for: triaging CI failures — use ai-bug-triage. Related: testing-in-production, synthetic-monitoring, qa-metrics, ai-bug-triage.
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"kindlmann","version":"2.0","category":"production"}

Production is the richest source of test design input: every error log, slow trace, and latency spike tells you where tests are missing. This skill closes the feedback loop between production observability and test creation, and makes trace structure a test assertion. A `200 OK` that silently hit the database on a path meant to be cache-only passes an HTTP assertion — a trace assertion catches it. Output: instrumented test runners, trace-based assertions, and a production-error-to-test pipeline.

Quick Route

Situation	Go to
Make test execution emit traces correlated with the app	OTel test-runner setup (references/trace-assertions.md)
Assert which services were called / no error spans / latency	Traces as Test Evidence
Turn a Sentry/Datadog error into a test	Production Error to Test Pipeline
Decide which endpoints need tests next	Telemetry-Driven Test Prioritization
A trace assertion is flaky or a span never arrives	Failure Modes

---

Discovery Questions

Check .agents/qa-project-context.md first. If it exists, use it as context and skip questions already answered there.

Observability stack:

• What APM/tracing tool is in place? (Datadog, New Relic, Honeycomb, Splunk Observability/SignalFx, ServiceNow Cloud Observability — formerly Lightstep, Dash0, Jaeger, Grafana Tempo, OpenTelemetry-native) — determines how you pull traces and which query syntax the diagnosis workflow uses.
• Is OpenTelemetry instrumented in the application, and which services? — un-instrumented services are invisible and untestable via traces.
• What logging infrastructure exists? (ELK, Loki, CloudWatch, Datadog Logs) — sets where log-by-trace-ID correlation happens.
• Are structured logs used, or free-form text? — structured logs are parseable into test gaps; free-form needs a fingerprinting step first.

Tracing maturity:

• Are distributed traces available across service boundaries? — without them, only single-service span assertions are possible.
• What is the trace sampling rate? (100%, 10%, head-based, tail-based) — probabilistic sampling will randomly drop the trace a test asserts on; you must force-sample test traffic (see Failure Modes).
• Can you search traces by error status, latency threshold, or custom attributes?
• Are traces correlated with logs and metrics? — enables exemplars (metric → representative trace ID), which makes prioritization concrete.

Production error tracking:

• What error tracking tool is used? (Sentry, SmartBear Insight Hub — formerly Bugsnag, Rollbar, Datadog Error Tracking, LaunchDarkly Observability — incl. session replay, formerly Highlight.io)
• How are production errors triaged? (Automated, manual, ignored)
• Is there a process for turning production errors into test cases?
• What was the last production error that a test should have caught?

Test infrastructure:

• Can tests emit telemetry? (Traces, custom metrics, structured logs)
• Are test results correlated with application telemetry?
• Do you have a test-to-code coverage mapping? — required to compute the error-rate-to-coverage matrix below.

---

Core Principles

1. Production data informs test priorities

The most valuable tests prevent real production errors — not theoretical edge cases, not contrived scenarios. Production error logs are a pre-prioritized backlog of tests you should have written, ordered by what real users actually hit.

2. Traces are test evidence

"The API returned 200" proves the endpoint responded. "The request hit the cache, skipped the database, and returned in <50ms" proves the system behaved correctly at every layer. Traces make tests deeper without making them more brittle.

3. Observability gaps equal test gaps

A code path with no traces, no logs, and no metrics is invisible — untestable in production and unverifiable during incidents. Observability coverage and test coverage are two views of the same problem.

4. Close the feedback loop

The complete cycle: error detected → analyzed → test written → deployed → recurrence prevented. If your team finds production errors but does not systematically create tests, the same class of error recurs.

---

Traces as Test Evidence

Pin @opentelemetry/semantic-conventions to an exact version and treat sem-conv bumps as breaking. Trace assertions reference attribute names by string; those names drift across releases and your assertions silently break. v1.41.0 (April 2026) shipped GenAI breaking changes and a process.executable entity split, and moved graphql.document from Recommended to Opt-In. Pin the literal version and bump deliberately:

// package.json — exact pin, no caret
"@opentelemetry/semantic-conventions": "1.41.1"

npm install --save-exact @opentelemetry/semantic-conventions@1.41.1

Do not introduce new OpenTracing shims. The OTel spec deprecated OpenTracing compatibility in March 2026 (removal no earlier than March 2027); new instrumentation should target native OTel APIs and OTLP.

Three patterns, all in references/trace-assertions.md:

• OpenTelemetry integration in test infrastructure — instrument the test runner (test-setup/tracing.ts) so test execution correlates with application traces via service.name, test.suite, and test.run_id resource attributes. Flush from the runner's global teardown with an awaited sdk.shutdown() — not process.on('beforeExit'), which drops trailing spans.
• Trace-based assertions — assert on trace structure, span attributes, and timing (which services were called, no ERROR spans, root-span latency, DB operations) instead of only the HTTP status. For unit-level span checks, use an in-process InMemorySpanExporter + SimpleSpanProcessor and read getFinishedSpans() synchronously — no network, no waitForTrace, no timeout flake. Reserve the real collector + waitForTrace path for cross-process traces.
• Distributed trace validation across services — an assertTraceStructure helper that verifies a request flowed through the expected services in order, with per-span attribute and maxDuration checks.

For declarative trace-based assertions (YAML/UI-driven instead of hand-rolled span queries), the OSS Tracetest project (kubeshop/tracetest) is still available, but the last public OSS release is v1.7.1 (Oct 2024) with low recent activity — evaluate maintenance before adopting. Tracetest's commercial Cloud offering was end-of-lifed October 2024; do not set up Tracetest Cloud, users will hit a dead product.

---

Log-Informed Test Design

Analyze production error logs for test gaps

Production errors are the highest-priority input for test creation. Each unhandled error is a missing test. See references/log-and-error-pipeline.md for the analyze-production-errors.ts script that maps each production error to test coverage, assigns a priority by frequency and recency, and suggests a test layer (unit/integration/e2e) from the error characteristics.

Categorize errors: covered vs. uncovered

1. Export production errors from error tracker (Sentry, Insight Hub, etc.)
   - Filter: last 30 days, count > 5 (ignore one-off errors)
   - Group by: error message fingerprint

2. For each error group:
   a. Does a test exist that would catch this error?
      → Yes: the test is either not running or has a gap (investigate)
      → No: this is a test gap (create a test)

   b. What layer should the test live at?
      → TypeError, null reference → unit test
      → Timeout, connection error → integration test with fault injection
      → UI rendering error → E2E test
      → Data inconsistency → contract test or database test

3. Output: prioritized list of tests to create, ordered by:
   error frequency × user impact × recency

Prioritize test creation by error frequency and impact

Prioritize using a 2×2 of frequency (high/low) vs. impact (high/low): P0 = high-frequency + high-impact (fix now), P1 = low-frequency + high-impact (next sprint), P2 = high-frequency + low-impact (this sprint), P3 = both low (backlog). Impact indicators: high = payment/auth failure, data loss, crash; low = UI glitch, slow-but-functional response.

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Telemetry-Driven Test Prioritization

Score endpoints by error-weighted gap

Invest test effort proportional to real usage and real failure. Gap Score is the canonical formula used throughout this skill:

Gap Score = (error_rate × requests_per_day) / max(test_count, 1)

This is error-weighted: it ranks an endpoint by the absolute volume of failing requests it produces, divided by how much test coverage already guards it. (If you instead want a volume-weighted lens that surfaces high-traffic-but-healthy endpoints, multiply by (1 + error_rate) rather than error_rate — a different question, not the matrix's labels.)

Error rate by endpoint to test coverage mapping

Endpoint           | Requests/day | Error Rate | Test Count | Gap Score
POST /api/orders   | 50,000       | 0.3%       | 2          | 75   CRITICAL
PUT  /api/profile  | 5,000        | 1.2%       | 1          | 60   CRITICAL
DELETE /api/items  | 2,000        | 0.8%       | 0          | 16   HIGH
POST /api/auth     | 80,000       | 0.1%       | 8          | 10   OK
GET  /api/search   | 200,000      | 0.05%      | 15         | 6.7  OK

Gap Score = (error_rate × requests_per_day) / max(test_count, 1)
Labels: CRITICAL ≥ 50, HIGH 12–49, OK < 12.

Action: create tests for endpoints at HIGH or above, highest score first.

Every label above is derived from the formula and the stated thresholds — copy the formula and you reproduce the matrix exactly. Pick your own thresholds, but state them; never hand-label.

Exemplars close the metric → trace → test loop. When a high-error endpoint surfaces in this matrix, OTel exemplars let you jump straight from the error-rate metric to a representative failing trace ID, then walk that trace (below) to write the test — instead of hunting for a matching trace by hand.

Hot path analysis

Identify the most-traversed code paths in production and ensure they have proportional test coverage.

1. Extract top 20 endpoints by request volume from APM data
2. For each endpoint, trace the code path through services
3. Map each service-level span to test coverage data
4. Identify hot paths with zero or low test coverage

Output:
  /api/checkout → cart-service → pricing-service → payment-service
  Coverage: cart-service (82%) → pricing-service (45%) → payment-service (91%)
  Gap: pricing-service discount calculation has 45% coverage on a critical path
  Action: Add tests for discount edge cases in pricing-service

Pair endpoint-level traffic data with continuous profiling to find CPU and allocation hot paths inside endpoints, not just at the boundary. The OTel profiling signal entered public alpha on 2026-03-26 (OTLP path /v1development/profiles), with GA targeted for Q3 2026 — treat it as not-yet-production. Production-ready alternatives today: Pyroscope, Parca, Polar Signals, Datadog Profiling. eBPF zero-instrumentation profilers (no SDK changes): Polar Signals, Parca, Grafana Beyla.

Zero-instrumentation observability — when adding the OTel SDK isn't feasible, eBPF tools capture HTTP/gRPC traces from kernel syscalls without code changes: Beyla (Grafana), Cilium Tetragon, Pixie, Coroot. Useful for legacy or polyglot services where SDK rollout takes quarters.

OTel Weaver generates type-safe instrumentation code from semantic-convention YAML — keeping trace assertions in sync with sem-conv bumps. Worth adopting if you maintain custom conventions or hit attribute drift between versions.

---

Production Error to Test Pipeline

The most important workflow in this skill: turning production errors into tests that prevent recurrence.

1. ERROR DETECTED
   Source: Sentry, Datadog, CloudWatch, or any error tracker
   Capture: error message, stack trace, request context, trace ID, user impact

2. REPRODUCE
   - Pull the trace from the observability platform (exemplar → trace ID if available)
   - Identify the exact request parameters and state that triggered the error
   - Reproduce locally or in staging with equivalent input
   - If not reproducible: add targeted logging and wait for recurrence

3. WRITE TEST
   - Choose the right layer (unit for logic bugs, integration for service interactions)
   - Test must fail before the fix (red-green verification)
   - Document the originating production error in the test name or a comment

4. FIX AND DEPLOY
   - Fix the bug; verify the test passes with the fix
   - Deploy fix + test together

5. VERIFY ELIMINATION
   - Monitor the same error in production after deploy
   - Confirm error count drops to zero
   - If it recurs: the fix was incomplete, repeat from step 2

See references/log-and-error-pipeline.md for a full test built from Sentry issue PROJ-4521 (null shipping address → null reference), asserting either a 400 or 422 (whichever your contract uses) at the API layer plus the E2E checkout prompt. The test name and a comment document the originating error, frequency, and context — the convention to follow when creating tests from production signals.

Establish the team feedback loop

• Weekly error review (30 min): pull the top 10 new errors by frequency from the error tracker. For each: assign an owner, create a test, or mark as known/acceptable. An error tracker with thousands of unresolved entries that nobody reads is the anti-pattern.
• Incident close gate: add "What test would have prevented this?" to every postmortem; the test is created (or the gap is explicitly recorded) before the incident is closed. Tie this to a checklist item so it is auditable, not aspirational.

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Diagnosis Workflows

Trace a failing request end-to-end

When a test fails or a production error occurs, use the trace to understand exactly what happened.

1. Get the trace ID (from test output, error tracker, or user report)

2. Open the trace in your APM tool
   - Jaeger: /trace/{traceId}
   - Datadog: /apm/traces?traceId={traceId}
   - Honeycomb: query by trace.trace_id

3. Walk the span tree
   - Root span: what did the user request?
   - Child spans: which services were called?
   - Error spans: where did it fail? (which span FIRST shows an error)
   - Slow spans: where did latency accumulate?

4. Correlate with logs
   - Filter logs by trace ID to see every log entry for this request
   - Look for warnings or errors that precede the failure

5. Identify the root cause
   - Is the error in your code, a dependency, or infrastructure?
   - Transient failure or persistent bug?

Correlate test failures with production telemetry

When a test fails, query your observability platform: (1) search production errors for matching messages (last 7 days); (2) search traces for the same HTTP route with ERROR status. Matches exist → the bug is real and affecting users, prioritize the fix. No matches → likely a test-only issue or a new bug not yet in production. This turns "probably flaky" into "confirmed production impact" or "test-only issue."

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Anti-Patterns

1. Ignoring production signals

The error tracker has 500 unresolved errors nobody looks at; the suite passes, so the team assumes quality is fine. Fix: run the weekly 30-minute error review above — top 10 new errors, each assigned an owner, a test, or a known/acceptable mark.

2. Testing only what is easy to observe

Teams assert HTTP status and response time while ignoring data consistency, background-job completion, and cache coherence. Fix: add spans to background jobs, cache ops, and async workflows, then assert on them. If it runs in production, it should produce telemetry.

3. No feedback loop between production and testing

SRE handles errors, QA writes tests, neither shares systematically, the same class of bug recurs. Fix: establish the production-error-to-test pipeline and the incident-close gate.

4. Over-instrumenting tests without acting on data

Thousands of metrics and logs emitted, nobody analyzes them — cost with no benefit. Fix: start with three specific questions you want test telemetry to answer; build those dashboards; add instrumentation only when you have a new question.

5. Using traces only for debugging, not for assertions

Traces treated as a post-break debugging tool rather than a source of assertions that prevent breaks. Fix: add trace-based assertions to integration tests — correct services called, efficient queries, expected cache hits. These catch regressions HTTP-level assertions miss.

6. Asserting against a probabilistically sampled trace

Head/probabilistic sampling randomly drops the trace the test is asserting on, producing intermittent failures. Fix: force-sample test traffic (OTEL_TRACES_SAMPLER=always_on or a per-request override) so every asserted trace is recorded.

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Failure Modes

Symptom	Likely cause	Fix or check
waitForTrace times out, span never arrives	Sampling dropped it, or exporter didn't flush before assert	Set OTEL_TRACES_SAMPLER=always_on for the test run; flush via awaited sdk.shutdown() in global teardown
Trailing spans from the last test missing	Flushed from process.on('beforeExit') (doesn't fire on exit/signal)	Move shutdown to the runner's global teardown hook; await sdk.shutdown()
App spans not part of the test's trace	traceparent header not propagated by the app	Confirm the app reads/forwards W3C traceparent; check the OTel propagator is configured
Assertion on db.system/graphql.document/GenAI attrs suddenly fails	sem-conv version bump renamed/moved the attribute	Pin @opentelemetry/semantic-conventions exact; diff the release notes; update assertions deliberately
No spans reach the collector in CI	OTEL_EXPORTER_ENDPOINT unreachable from the CI network	Point at the in-CI collector address; smoke-test with the Verification step below
status?.code === 'ERROR' matches nothing despite real errors	Collector serializes status as 2 / 'STATUS_CODE_ERROR', not 'ERROR'	Match what your collector actually emits (see note in references/trace-assertions.md)

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Verification

Prove the telemetry path works before trusting any trace assertion, smallest first:

# 1. Start a local collector, point the runner at it, run one instrumented test.
OTEL_EXPORTER_ENDPOINT=http://localhost:4318/v1/traces \
OTEL_TRACES_SAMPLER=always_on \
  npx playwright test --grep @trace

# 2. Confirm a span with service.name=integration-tests arrived at the collector
#    (check the collector's debug/logging exporter output, or query your APM).

Then, in code, assert a known trace ID resolves before relying on any structural assertion: await collector.waitForTrace(traceId, { timeout: 10_000 }) must return spans — if it times out, fix sampling/flush/propagation (Failure Modes) before adding more assertions. For unit-level span checks, the InMemorySpanExporter path returns spans synchronously with no collector at all.

Done When

• Every one of the top-20-by-traffic endpoints (from the hot-path matrix) resolves to at least one span in a sampled trace — no high-traffic endpoint is invisible.
• Trace-based assertions exist for at least one key user journey, verifying service calls and span attributes (not just HTTP status), and pass under OTEL_TRACES_SAMPLER=always_on.
• Log-informed test cases exist for the known failure modes surfaced by the production error analysis.
• The error-rate/Gap-Score matrix has been computed and has produced at least one prioritized set of untested code paths.
• @opentelemetry/semantic-conventions is pinned to an exact version in package.json (no caret).
• A recorded post-deploy review (checklist item or postmortem entry) confirms observability signals were checked before the release was marked stable.

Reference Files (in references/)

• trace-assertions.md — OTel test-runner setup (with correct global-teardown flush and the in-memory exporter alternative), force-sampling note, trace-based assertions, and the distributed assertTraceStructure helper.
• log-and-error-pipeline.md — the analyze-production-errors.ts test-gap script and a worked production-error-to-test example (400-or-422 assertion).

Related Skills

• testing-in-production — safe rollout techniques (flags, canary, guardrail metrics) during a release; this skill instead uses the telemetry those releases produce as input to design tests after.
• synthetic-monitoring — scheduled probes that run after release and themselves emit telemetry; that telemetry feeds the analysis here.
• qa-metrics — turns telemetry-derived numbers (error rates, latency, Gap Score) into quality dashboards and KPIs; this skill produces the raw signals, qa-metrics aggregates them.
• ai-bug-triage — when the input is a pile of CI/production failures to classify and route; use it to feed the error-categorization step here, then return to write the tests.