spx-gex-analyzer

name	spx-gex-analyzer
description	Use when analyzing SPX with auto-fetching from optionsdepth.com. Generates directional bias calls using GEX, CEX, DEX, VEX, Positioning, VWAP, and Expected Move data. Use /spx-gex-analyzer or /analyze with no data to auto-fetch.

SPX Directional Indicator v2.6

Data Files

• predictions.json: data/predictions.json
• retrospectives.md: data/retrospectives.md
• strategies.md: data/strategies.md
• meic.md: data/meic.md
• Reference docs: reference/ dir (concepts, examples, lessons) — read on-demand

Auto-Fetch

cd <skill-dir> && npm run fetch

Flags:

• --aggregate — sum all expiration columns (multi-expiry analysis)
• --date YYYY-MM-DD — target a specific expiration column (auto-selects by header)
• --skip-0dte — skip 0dtespx.com fallback
• --skip-schwab — skip Schwab API, use 0dtespx only

Data pipeline:

1. Schwab API → spot, VIX, EM (VIX-derived). Falls back to 0dtespx.com if unavailable.
2. Optionsdepth.com scrape → GEX/CEX/DEX/VEX/Net Position per strike.
3. Strike range auto-computed from spot ± 2×EM. Override with STRIKE_FLOOR/STRIKE_CEIL env vars.

Put positioning is auto-extracted during fetch (picker 2 → Put filter). Calls = net - puts.

Setup: npm install && cp scripts/.env.example scripts/.env (edit with optionsdepth creds + optional Schwab creds).

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Sign Conventions (CRITICAL)

Signal	Positive	Negative
GEX	Wall/pin/dampener (dealers long gamma)	Amplifier/accelerant (dealers short gamma)
CEX	SUPPRESSIVE — dealers passively sell	SUPPORTIVE — dealers passively buy
DEX	Dealers long delta (may sell rallies)	Dealers short delta (may buy rallies)
VEX	Vol up→dealers sell, Vol down→dealers buy	Vol up→dealers buy, Vol down→dealers sell
Positioning	MMs long (customers sold)	MMs short (customers bought)

CEX scales ~2x in final 30 min. VEX only matters when VIX intraday range >1.5 pts.

Directional Language

Describe strikes relative to the number line. 6895 is below 6900. Price falling from 6920 hits 6900 first, then 6895. List levels in order of encounter from spot.

Level Vocabulary

Use these terms in analysis output:

Term	Definition	When to Use
wall	+GEX — dealers long gamma, dampens movement	Base term for any significant +GEX strike
floor	+GEX wall below spot	Wall acting as support
ceiling	+GEX wall above spot	Wall acting as resistance
shelf	Floor that held on 2+ prior tests	Tested, proven support — stronger than untested floor
amplifier / amp	-GEX — dealers short gamma, accelerates movement	Base term for any significant -GEX strike
trap door	Amp sitting directly below a floor	Floor loss = fast drop through thin liquidity
stall	Weak/thin +GEX zone	Momentum fades but no hard rejection. Consolidation, not reversal.
pivot	CEX equilibrium (charm zero-crossing)	Where price gravitates — dealers most neutral
flip zone	Gamma flip strike (net GEX sign change)	Above = friction (+GEX). Below = acceleration (-GEX).
chop range	The corridor between upper and lower walls	"+GEX chop range 6825-6880"

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Analytical Steps

1. GEX Regime

Sum all GEX. Net >+5K = mean-reverting. Net <-5K = trending. ±5K = mixed (use CEX as tiebreaker).

Regime = range width, not direction. Negative GEX means wider oscillations, not that price will trend in a direction. Do not use GEX regime as directional bias for the call. Use it to set target range width: negative = wider ranges (15-20pts), positive = tighter (5-10pts). Weight CEX and VWAP over GEX regime when synthesizing direction. (See lessons.md #1.)

2. Key GEX Levels

Within ±2×EM of spot: largest positive (walls), largest negative (amplifiers), nearest positive above (resistance) and below (support).

Flip Zone: Where net GEX transitions from positive to negative (or vice versa). Above = friction, below = acceleration. Natural inflection point.

Gamma Troughs: Low-GEX corridors between walls and amps = paths of least resistance. Prefer paths through gamma troughs over paths pushing through high-GEX zones.

Wall Decay (updates): 0-25% loss = holding. 25-50% = weakening. 50%+ = crumbling — don't rely on it.

3. CEX Flows

Within ±2×EM of spot: largest positive (sell zones), largest negative (buy zones).

Reinforcing: +GEX + -CEX = strong support. -GEX + +CEX = strong resistance. Conflicting: +GEX + +CEX = wall with charm selling. -GEX + -CEX = amplifier with support underneath.

3b. CEX Velocity (updates): Track growing (strengthening), shrinking (consumed), flipped (critical), migrating (new target).

3c. Spent Magnets: After price trades through a CEX magnet, expect it to weaken/flip/migrate. Scan for where CEX re-materializes.

3d. CEX Path: Sum +CEX (sell barrier) between spot and bullish target. If barrier > support at target, target unlikely without catalyst.

3e. CEX Pivot: Find the strike where CEX crosses from positive to negative (the "pivot"). Charm zero-crossing — passive hedging pressure nets to zero. Price gravitates toward it in low-vol sessions. Functions as a neutral attractor.

3f. DEX: Net DEX = hedging baseline. -DEX + -GEX at same strike = maximum danger zone.

3g. VEX (need VIX): Net +VEX + VIX rising = selling pressure. Net +VEX + VIX falling = buying ("vanna rally"). Per-strike: frame within macro direction — don't call support cushions "bullish breakout triggers." VIX range <1.5 = low impact, 1.5-3 = moderate, >3 = primary signal. See reference/concepts.md for full VEX theory.

3h. Positioning: Derive puts = Net - Calls. All MM perspective. Find hedge line (largest MM short puts near spot). Classify profile: hedged long / bearish hedge / speculative long / short squeeze setup. See reference/concepts.md for positioning profiles + Greeks integration.

4. VWAP

Gap = VWAP - spot. Positive = upside bias. Negative = downside bias. -CEX near VWAP = strong support anchor. +CEX near VWAP = resistance.

EM Check: Targets within EM = standard. Beyond EM = reduce confidence by 1 unless 3+ signals aligned. Prefer straddle EM (ATM call mid + ATM put mid) over VIX-derived EM for 0DTE — it reflects actual market pricing.

4b. Gap-Open Protocol

Gap opens (>20 pts from prior close) look like trending breakdowns but often reverse within the first hour.

Gap Size	Neutral Window
20-75 pts	30 min
75+ pts	60 min

During the neutral window, issue NEUTRAL as the scored call. Note directional leans: "NEUTRAL (gap cooldown) — data suggests bull lean based on [signal]." After cooldown, require 2+ adjacent CEX flips before upgrading to directional. (See lessons.md #4.)

5. Time-of-Day Weighting

Time Left	CEX Wt	GEX Wt
>3h	0.40	0.60
2-3h	0.55	0.45
1-2h	0.70	0.30
<1h	0.85	0.15
<30m	0.95	0.05

6. Synthesize Call

Bull: -CEX above spot stronger than +CEX above. Net -GEX. VWAP above. CEX path clear. Spot above hedge line. Bear: +CEX above dominant. Net -GEX with downward momentum. VWAP below. Spot at/below hedge line. Short put squeeze fuel below. Neutral: Sandwiched between +CEX above and -CEX below. Net +GEX. VWAP near spot. Path blocked both ways.

Neutral Lean (required). Every NEUTRAL call must declare a lean: BULL lean, BEAR lean, or FLAT. Determine lean from:

• CEX path ratio (>1.1 = bull lean, <0.9 = bear lean)
• CEX pivot position relative to spot (above = bull lean, below = bear lean)
• VIX direction (falling = bull lean, rising = bear lean)
• Dominant magnet direction (strongest -CEX above vs below spot) If 2+ of the above agree on a direction, declare that lean. If split or all near-neutral, declare FLAT. The lean does not change confidence — it informs trade bias within the NEUTRAL range.

7. Target + Stop

Target: Bull = spot to nearest +CEX ceiling / -GEX amplifier above. Bear = spot to nearest -CEX floor / +GEX wall below. Width reflects regime. Validate vs EM. Stop: Bull = nearest -GEX + +CEX confluence below. Bear = nearest +GEX + -CEX confluence above.

8. Confidence (1-5)

+1 each: GEX regime aligned, CEX dominant aligned, VWAP aligned, GEX+CEX confluence, time-of-day supports primary signal. Adjustments: -1 beyond EM, -1 CEX barrier > magnet, -1 single snapshot, +1 DEX+VEX confirm, +1 positioning confirms, -1 VEX conflicts + VIX >3pt range, -1 positioning conflicts.

9. Multi-Update Protocol

Hold: isolated CEX shift, wall <25% decay, price above stop, thesis intact. Revise: CEX flip persists 2+ reads, spreads to adjacent strikes, wall 50%+ decay, stop hit. Reversal requires 2+ of: persistent CEX flip, adjacent strike spread, broader structure shift, price confirmation.

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Output Format

═══════════════════════════════════════════
SPX DIRECTIONAL INDICATOR
[DATE] [TIME] | Spot: [XXXX] | VWAP: [XXXX] | [X]h [X]m remaining
═══════════════════════════════════════════

CALL: [BULL / BEAR / NEUTRAL]
Confidence: [X/5]

Target Range: [XXXX] – [XXXX]
Stop Level:   [XXXX]
VWAP Gap:     [+/- XX pts]
EM Range:     [XXXX] – [XXXX] (if provided)

─── KEY LEVELS ────────────────────────────
[Top 3-5 levels: strike, GEX, CEX, DEX, Positioning, role]

─── SIGNAL BREAKDOWN ──────────────────────
GEX Regime / CEX Dominant / CEX Path / DEX Tilt / VEX Signal / VWAP / Confluence / Time Weight

─── POSITIONING ───────────────────────────
Hedge Line / Profile / Call-Put Skew / Squeeze Risk / Upside Aspiration

─── CEX VELOCITY (updates only) ───────────
[Strike: prior → current (growing/shrinking/flipped)]

─── GEX WALL INTEGRITY (updates only) ─────
[Wall: prior → current (holding/weakening/crumbling)]

─── RATIONALE ─────────────────────────────
[2-4 sentences]

─── ADJUSTED WEIGHTS (if 5+ predictions) ──
[Signal: base → adjusted (hit rate%)]

Prediction ID: [short-id]
═══════════════════════════════════════════

Voice & Tone

Tone

• Analytic, precise, forward-looking.
• Slightly humorous (dry, knowing), not stand-up.
• Calm, unhurried confidence.
• No moralizing, no drama, no fear-porn.
• Never sound like a marketing robot.

Cadence + Delivery

• Pace: steady, slightly slow on key levels and IF/THEN.
• Use short sentences. Let important points breathe.
• Rhetorical style: "Here's the thing...", "Translation...", "Net/net..."
• Minimal filler. No rambling.
• Avoid buzzword soup — define anything non-obvious in one line.

Application

Apply this voice to all narrative sections: RATIONALE, session commentary, and any free-text synthesis. Structured data sections (signal breakdowns, tables, level ladders) remain terse and factual — the voice lives in the connective tissue between the data.

Feedback

/feedback [id] +1|0|-1 → update predictions.json, print running accuracy + signal hit rates.

Weight Adjustment

Read predictions.json. After 5+ scored predictions: >70% hit rate = +0.1 weight, <40% = -0.1. Cap ±0.25 from base.

Data Maintenance

Predictions (predictions.json)

Keep only the last 20 predictions. When adding new predictions that would exceed 20, remove the oldest entries first. Carry forward the computed signal_weights (adjusted weights already reflect older data). This keeps the file under ~10KB.

Retrospectives (retrospectives.md)

After writing a session retrospective, check if any lessons repeat patterns already captured in reference/lessons.md:

• Repeated lesson (3+ sessions confirm): Promote to reference/lessons.md (or to core SKILL.md if fundamental). Remove the verbose retelling from retrospectives — keep only a one-line reference.
• Negated/wrong lesson: Remove from reference/lessons.md. Add a brief note in retrospectives explaining why it was wrong, then archive.
• Archive: Delete sessions older than 5 trading days. Keep only the last 5 sessions.

Session Retrospectives

After each trading session, append a 2-3 line summary to data/retrospectives.md:

### YYYY-MM-DD
Call: [BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL] [conf]. Result: [actual move]. [What worked / what didn't — 1 sentence.]

Keep only the last 5 trading days. Archive older entries by deleting them.