risk-warning-catalysts

name	risk-warning-catalysts
description	Build a source-backed monitoring system for risk signals and catalysts in an A-share company. Use this skill when turning static research into an update process covering orders, financing, governance, policy, operations, and sentiment. All outputs must include accessible source links.

Risk Warning Catalysts

Convert research into a live monitoring framework.

Non-Negotiable Rules

• Every risk and catalyst must point to a public source and a monitorable trigger.
• Distinguish confirmed events from watch items.
• Use thresholds where possible, not vague language.
• Do not turn monitoring points into valuation conclusions here.
• Default every intermediate and final output to Simplified Chinese unless the user explicitly requests another language.

Read First

• skills/shared/references/source-registry.md
• skills/shared/references/citation-standard.md
• skills/shared/references/analysis-pattern-selector.md
• skills/shared/references/language-output-standard.md
• skills/shared/templates/catalyst-calendar.md
• skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/monitoring-dashboard.md
• If the company is project-driven or asset-ramp sensitive, also load the matching shared overlay.
• If the company is an IDC or AI-compute case, skills/shared/references/idc-heavy-asset-transition-overlay.md and skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/idc-monitoring-indicators.md are optional example overlays.

When to Use

• Build a watchlist after a deep-dive report.
• Track whether the thesis is improving or deteriorating.
• Prepare a monthly or event-driven update process.

Workflow

1. Pull the latest announcements and identify what changed since the last report.
2. Map risks by category: execution, finance, governance, policy, customer, technology, litigation.
3. Map catalysts by category: orders, policy, financing, asset disposals, utilization, margin improvement.
4. Attach a threshold, expected evidence source, and review frequency to each item.
5. Build a monthly dashboard and catalyst calendar.

Required Output

• 事实: confirmed risks, confirmed catalysts, last update status
• 解读: which factors matter most to the thesis and why
• 待验证问题: which missing data points could change the signal
• Dashboard: metric, threshold, latest value, source, next check date

Boundaries

• Do not restate the full strategy review.
• Do not recalculate all financial ratios unless needed for a monitor.
• Do not produce target price or position sizing.