critical-validation

name	critical-validation
description	Deep-dive validation of top innovation ideas using Six Thinking Hats methodology. Systematically explore facts, emotions, benefits, risks, creative solutions, and decisions. Validates assumptions before committing resources. Use after idea-evaluation narrows to top 3-5 ideas.

Critical Validation - Six Thinking Hats

Purpose

After evaluation scores identify your top 3-5 ideas, you need deep validation before committing resources to implementation. This skill uses Edward de Bono's Six Thinking Hats methodology to:

• Systematically examine ideas from six complementary perspectives
• Surface hidden risks and opportunities evaluation missed
• Test critical assumptions before building
• Make go/no-go decisions with confidence
• Generate creative solutions to identified problems

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• You've selected top 3-5 ideas from idea-evaluation
• Scores were close and you need deeper analysis to decide
• Stakeholders need confidence before greenlighting resources
• An idea seems promising but you sense hidden risks
• You want to stress-test assumptions before committing
• Team needs alignment on whether to proceed

Input Required

Before starting validation, you need:

1. Top 3-5 ideas from idea-evaluation with scores and rationale
2. Evaluation concerns - what questions did scoring raise?
3. Closed World map to ground feasibility and risk discussion
4. PRFAQ to reference customer value and vision
5. Critical assumptions - what must be true for this to work?

Execution Modes

Choose your preferred working mode:

Interactive Mode (Recommended)

Claude will guide you through each hat sequentially, pausing for your review before moving to the next hat.

Checkpoints:

• After each hat → Review findings, add anything missed, approve before next hat
• Especially useful for Red Hat (capture gut feeling before logic)
• Final checkpoint before Blue Hat decision

Use when:

• First time using Six Thinking Hats
• Want to actively participate in each thinking mode
• Need team collaboration at each step
• Important decision requiring careful deliberation

Autonomous Mode

Claude will complete all 6 hats in sequence and present comprehensive validation summary.

Use when:

• Familiar with Six Hats methodology
• Solo validation (not facilitating team session)
• Want complete analysis draft to review
• Time-constrained

To activate:

Use critical-validation skill in interactive mode on [Idea Name].

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The Six Thinking Hats

Each hat represents a distinct thinking mode. By wearing one hat at a time, teams think in parallel rather than arguing from fixed positions.

🤍 White Hat - Facts & Information

Focus: Objective data, what we know and don't know

• What facts do we have about this idea?
• What information is missing?
• What evidence supports or contradicts this?
• What do we need to research or validate?

Output: Clear picture of known facts vs. assumptions

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❤️ Red Hat - Emotions & Intuition

Focus: Gut feelings, emotions, intuition (NO JUSTIFICATION ALLOWED)

• How do I feel about this idea?
• What's my gut reaction?
• Do I trust this will work?
• What emotions does this evoke?

Output: Honest emotional landscape, not filtered by logic

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🚨 Red Hat Enforcement Rules

CRITICAL: Red Hat responses must be PURE EMOTION with ZERO JUSTIFICATION.

❌ WRONG Examples (include "because"/rationale):

• "I'm excited because this solves a real customer pain"
• "I'm worried since we don't have the technical skills"
• "I feel optimistic - customers will definitely pay for this"
• "Something feels off about the pricing model"
• "I'm nervous about the timeline given our team size"

✅ RIGHT Examples (pure feeling only):

• "I'm excited"
• "I'm worried"
• "I feel optimistic"
• "Something feels off"
• "I'm nervous"
• "I'm conflicted - both excited and scared"
• "This feels right"
• "I don't trust this"

Facilitator script when someone adds "because":

"Thank you for the feeling. Let's save the 'why' for White Hat or Black Hat. Just the emotion for now - how do you FEEL?"

Why this matters:

• Gut feelings often know things logic hasn't articulated yet
• Adding "because" turns Red Hat into White/Black Hat
• Pure emotions reveal team's intuitive assessment
• Final Red Hat shows if analysis changed gut feeling

Enforcement checklist:

• No "because" statements
• No explanations or reasons
• No data or facts
• Just emotions: excited, worried, nervous, optimistic, skeptical, confident, uncertain, etc.

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💛 Yellow Hat - Benefits & Optimism

Focus: Positive outcomes, best-case scenarios, value

• What's great about this idea?
• What value does it create?
• What's the best-case outcome?
• Why will this succeed?

Output: Comprehensive map of potential benefits

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🖤 Black Hat - Risks & Caution

Focus: Problems, risks, reasons it might fail

• What could go wrong?
• What are the risks?
• Why might this fail?
• What are we overlooking?

Output: Thorough risk inventory, Devil's advocate perspective

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💚 Green Hat - Creativity & Alternatives

Focus: New ideas, creative solutions, alternatives

• How can we overcome Black Hat risks?
• What are alternative approaches?
• What if we modified this idea?
• How can we make this even better?

Output: Creative solutions to problems, idea improvements

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🔵 Blue Hat - Process & Decisions

Focus: Meta-thinking, process control, synthesis

• What have we learned?
• What's the conclusion?
• What are next steps?
• Do we go, no-go, or iterate?

Output: Decision and action plan

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Recommended Validation Sequence

Full Validation (90-120 minutes per idea)

Sequence: Red → White → Yellow → Black → Green → Blue → Red

1. Red Hat (5 min): Initial gut check - how do we feel?
2. White Hat (15 min): What facts do we know? What's missing?
3. Yellow Hat (20 min): Map all benefits and best-case scenarios
4. Black Hat (20 min): Identify all risks and failure modes
5. Green Hat (20 min): Creative solutions to Black Hat problems
6. Blue Hat (15 min): Synthesize and decide (go/no-go/iterate)
7. Red Hat (5 min): Final emotional check after analysis

Why this sequence:

• Start with Red to capture unfiltered intuition
• White grounds discussion in facts vs. assumptions
• Yellow before Black prevents premature negativity
• Green solves problems Black identified
• Blue synthesizes everything
• End with Red to check if analysis changed gut feeling

Quick Validation (30-45 minutes per idea)

Sequence: Red → Yellow → Black → Blue

1. Red Hat (3 min): Initial gut check
2. Yellow Hat (10 min): Key benefits
3. Black Hat (15 min): Critical risks
4. Blue Hat (10 min): Decision

When to use: Time-constrained, straightforward ideas, preliminary validation

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Workflow

Step 1: Prepare (10 minutes)

Set up the session:

• Select ONE idea to validate (don't try multiple ideas in one session)
• Review evaluation scores and concerns
• Identify 3-5 critical assumptions to test
• Gather materials: PRFAQ, Closed World, evaluation summary

Assemble participants:

• Idea owner/champion
• Subject matter experts (tech, operations, business)
• Skeptic/Devil's advocate
• Facilitator (keeps group on hat, watches time)

Set ground rules:

• One hat at a time (no mixing perspectives)
• All voices heard (especially quiet members)
• No defending or attacking (just thinking)
• Write ideas down (don't trust memory)

Step 2: Red Hat - Initial Gut Check (5 minutes)

Prompt: "How do you feel about this idea right now? What's your gut reaction?"

Guidelines:

• NO JUSTIFICATION ALLOWED - just express pure feelings
• STOP at the emotion - no "because", no explanations
• Valid responses: "I'm excited" / "I'm nervous" / "Something feels off" / "I'm conflicted"
• INVALID: Any response with "because", "since", or explanations
• Capture all reactions without judgment
• If majority is negative, consider stopping here

Output: Honest emotional baseline before analysis

✅ CORRECT Example:

• Person A: "I'm excited"
• Person B: "I'm worried"
• Person C: "I feel optimistic"

❌ INCORRECT Example (includes justification):

• Person A: "I'm excited but worried about technical complexity"
• Person B: "Gut says this is too risky right now"
• Person C: "I feel optimistic - customers will love this"

If someone adds "because" or rationale: Facilitator says: "Thank you for sharing. Let's capture just the feeling for now - excited? worried? Save the 'why' for White Hat or Black Hat."

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Step 3: White Hat - Facts & Information (15 minutes)

Prompt: "What do we know for certain? What information is missing?"

Four categories:

1. What we KNOW (facts, data, evidence):

• Confirmed customer needs from research
• Technical capabilities from Closed World
• Market data from evidence gathering
• Competitor actions

2. What we THINK we know (assumptions):

• "Customers will pay for this" (assumed, not proven)
• "We can build this in 3 months" (estimate, not certain)
• "This will differentiate us" (hypothesis, not fact)

3. What we DON'T know (gaps):

• Will customers actually use this feature?
• What's the true technical complexity?
• How will competitors respond?

4. What we NEED to learn (research needed):

• User testing to validate X
• Technical spike to prove Y
• Competitive analysis of Z

Output: Clear map of knowledge vs. assumptions vs. gaps

Example:

KNOW:
- 45% of users requested similar feature in surveys
- We have 3 engineers with required skills

THINK WE KNOW:
- Users will pay 20% premium for this
- Implementation will take 4 months

DON'T KNOW:
- How often would users actually use this?
- What edge cases will we encounter?

NEED TO LEARN:
- Prototype + user test (2 weeks)
- Technical spike on integration (1 week)

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Step 4: Yellow Hat - Benefits & Optimism (20 minutes)

Prompt: "What's great about this idea? What value does it create? What's the best-case outcome?"

Explore four benefit dimensions:

1. Customer benefits:

• Jobs made easier/faster/cheaper
• Pains eliminated
• Gains created
• Delightful moments

2. Business benefits:

• Revenue opportunities
• Cost reductions
• Strategic advantages
• Competitive moats

3. Strategic benefits:

• Platform potential (unlocks future opportunities)
• Learning value (teaches us something critical)
• Market positioning
• Partnership opportunities

4. Best-case scenarios:

• If everything goes right, what happens?
• Network effects, viral growth
• Industry recognition

Output: Comprehensive value map (helps prioritize what to preserve)

Example:

CUSTOMER BENEFITS:
- Saves traders 2 hours/day (massive JTBD impact)
- Reduces stress of tracking manually

BUSINESS BENEFITS:
- Could increase retention by 30%
- Differentiates us from all competitors

STRATEGIC BENEFITS:
- Platform play - can build other features on this data
- Could license technology to partners

BEST CASE:
- Becomes the killer feature customers choose us for
- Industry standard, others copy us (validates leadership)

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Step 5: Black Hat - Risks & Caution (20 minutes)

Prompt: "What could go wrong? Why might this fail? What are we overlooking?"

Explore seven risk categories:

1. Customer risks:

• Won't pay for it
• Won't use it (low adoption)
• Doesn't actually solve pain
• Complexity overwhelms them

2. Technical risks:

• Harder to build than estimated
• Performance/scalability issues
• Integration nightmares
• Technical debt created

3. Operational risks:

• Support burden too high
• Can't maintain/update easily
• Training required for team
• Process changes needed

4. Business risks:

• Unit economics don't work
• Cannibalizes existing revenue
• Damages brand/reputation
• Legal/regulatory issues

5. Competitive risks:

• Competitors copy quickly
• Not differentiated enough
• Market moves away from this

6. Execution risks:

• Takes longer than planned
• Costs more than budgeted
• Team lacks skills
• Opportunity cost (should build X instead)

7. Assumption risks:

• Which White Hat assumptions are most dangerous if wrong?

Output: Comprehensive risk inventory (most important hat for avoiding failure)

Example:

CUSTOMER RISKS:
- Adoption might be slow (behavioral change required)
- Power users may find it limiting vs. manual control

TECHNICAL RISKS:
- Real-time sync could fail at scale (100k+ users)
- Edge cases we haven't thought of

OPERATIONAL RISKS:
- Customer support needs training on new feature
- Maintenance burden on small team

BUSINESS RISKS:
- Might cannibalize revenue from premium tier
- Legal risk if data handling isn't perfect

COMPETITIVE RISKS:
- Competitors can copy in 6 months
- Market trend toward different solution

EXECUTION RISKS:
- Estimated 3 months, could be 6+
- Requires hiring specialist we don't have

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Step 6: Green Hat - Creativity & Alternatives (20 minutes)

Prompt: "How can we overcome the risks identified? What creative solutions exist? How can we modify this idea?"

Three approaches:

1. Risk mitigation (for each Black Hat risk):

• How can we reduce likelihood?
• How can we reduce impact?
• What's the contingency plan?

Example:

BLACK HAT RISK: "Real-time sync might fail at scale"
GREEN HAT SOLUTIONS:
- Phase 1: Launch without real-time (async only)
- Technical spike to prove scalability before full build
- Partner with infrastructure expert
- Limit concurrent users initially

2. Idea modifications:

• Can we make this simpler (ELIMINATE something)?
• Can we make this modular (MVP first, expand later)?
• Can we test before building (prototype, wizard-of-oz)?

Example:

ORIGINAL IDEA: "AI-powered business insights dashboard"
GREEN HAT MODIFICATIONS:
- MVP: One insight, delivered weekly via SMS (not real-time dashboard)
- Test: Manually create insights for 20 users, see if valuable
- Modular: Start with spending analysis, add revenue insights later

3. Alternative approaches:

• What if we solved same problem differently?
• What can we borrow from other industries?
• What would [competitor/hero company] do?

Output: Creative solutions to risks, idea improvements, alternatives

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Step 7: Blue Hat - Process & Decisions (15 minutes)

Prompt: "What have we learned? What's the conclusion? Do we go, no-go, or iterate?"

Synthesize the session:

1. Summary:

• Key facts (White Hat)
• Biggest benefits (Yellow Hat)
• Critical risks (Black Hat)
• Best solutions (Green Hat)

2. Critical assumptions identified:

• What must be true for this to work?
• Which assumptions are testable?
• Which are make-or-break?

3. Decision framework:

GO: Build this idea as planned

• Benefits clearly outweigh risks
• Risks have good mitigation strategies
• Critical assumptions testable before major investment
• Team confidence is high

NO-GO: Don't pursue this idea

• Risks too high / benefits too uncertain
• Critical assumptions likely false
• Better alternatives exist
• Team gut feeling remains negative

ITERATE: Modify and re-validate

• Good core idea but needs changes
• Test assumptions first, then decide
• Build MVP to learn, not full version
• Revisit after Green Hat modifications

4. Next steps (if GO or ITERATE):

• What do we build/test first?
• What assumptions must we validate?
• Who owns this?
• What's the timeline?
• What's the budget?
• When do we review progress?

Output: Clear go/no-go/iterate decision with rationale and next steps

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Step 8: Red Hat - Final Gut Check (5 minutes)

Prompt: "After all this analysis, how do you feel now? Has your gut reaction changed?"

Guidelines (SAME AS INITIAL RED HAT):

• NO JUSTIFICATION - pure emotions only
• Just state feelings: "I feel confident" / "Still nervous" / "More excited now" / "Less certain"
• NO "because" statements

Compare to initial Red Hat:

• Are you more or less confident?
• Did analysis confirm or contradict intuition?
• Any lingering concerns?

If gut feeling contradicts Blue Hat decision:

• Why the disconnect?
• Is there a risk we haven't articulated?
• Trust the analysis or trust the gut?

Output: Emotional validation of decision, surface any unease

✅ CORRECT Final Red Hat:

• Person A: "I feel much more confident now"
• Person B: "Still nervous but less worried"
• Person C: "I'm excited"

❌ INCORRECT Final Red Hat (includes justification):

• Person A: "I feel more confident because we have mitigation strategies"
• Person B: "Still nervous about the technical risks"
• Person C: "I'm excited - this is going to work"

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Output Format

See assets/validation-template.md for ready-to-use template.

Validation Summary Structure

# Six Thinking Hats Validation: [Idea Name]

**Date:** [Date]
**Participants:** [Names and roles]
**Idea score:** X.XX (from evaluation)
**Session duration:** XX minutes

---

## Initial Red Hat - Gut Feelings

[Capture each person's initial reaction]

**Overall sentiment:** Positive / Mixed / Negative

---

## White Hat - Facts & Information

### What We KNOW:
- [Fact 1]
- [Fact 2]

### What We THINK We Know (Assumptions):
- [Assumption 1]
- [Assumption 2]

### What We DON'T Know:
- [Gap 1]
- [Gap 2]

### What We NEED to Learn:
- [Research need 1]
- [Research need 2]

---

## Yellow Hat - Benefits & Optimism

### Customer Benefits:
- [Benefit 1]
- [Benefit 2]

### Business Benefits:
- [Benefit 1]
- [Benefit 2]

### Strategic Benefits:
- [Benefit 1]
- [Benefit 2]

### Best-Case Scenario:
[Describe best possible outcome]

---

## Black Hat - Risks & Caution

### Customer Risks:
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

### Technical Risks:
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

### Operational Risks:
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

### Business Risks:
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

### Competitive Risks:
- [Risk 1]

### Execution Risks:
- [Risk 1]

### Critical Risk Assumptions:
- [Most dangerous assumption if wrong]

---

## Green Hat - Creative Solutions

### Risk Mitigation:
[For each critical Black Hat risk, propose solution]

### Idea Modifications:
[How could we improve/simplify this idea?]

### Alternative Approaches:
[Different ways to achieve same goal]

---

## Blue Hat - Decision & Next Steps

### Summary:
- **Key facts:** [from White Hat]
- **Biggest benefits:** [from Yellow Hat]
- **Critical risks:** [from Black Hat]
- **Best solutions:** [from Green Hat]

### Critical Assumptions:
1. [Assumption that must be true]
2. [Assumption that must be true]

### DECISION: [ GO / NO-GO / ITERATE ]

**Rationale:** [Why this decision?]

### Next Steps (if GO or ITERATE):
1. [Action 1] - Owner: [Name] - Due: [Date]
2. [Action 2] - Owner: [Name] - Due: [Date]

### Success Criteria:
[How will we know this is working?]

### Review Checkpoint:
[When will we review progress?]

---

## Final Red Hat - Gut Check

[How do people feel after analysis?]

**Confidence level:** High / Medium / Low
**Any lingering concerns:** [Yes/No and what]

---

## Sign-off

**Facilitator:** [Name]
**Decision owners:** [Names]
**Date:** [Date]

---

Examples

See references/example-outputs.md for complete Six Thinking Hats validations:

• FairCredit: Validating "USSD for Feature Phones" (GO decision)
• FairCredit: Validating "Daily Micro-Payments" (ITERATE decision)
• AsyncFlow: Validating "Remove Real-Time Presence" (GO decision)
• SolarSeva: Validating "Grid-Tie Instead of Batteries" (GO decision)

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Tips for Success

Do:

• Enforce one hat at a time - mixing perspectives defeats the purpose
• Start with Red Hat - capture gut before logic filters it
• Spend most time on Black and Green - risks and solutions matter most
• Write everything down - don't trust memory, capture all ideas
• Include skeptics - diverse perspectives surface blind spots
• Use timer - keeps discussion focused and moving

Don't:

• Skip hats - each perspective reveals something important
• Rush Black Hat - finding risks before building saves massive time/money
• Defend the idea - validation is about testing, not selling
• Mix optimism and pessimism - separate Yellow and Black thinking
• Ignore Red Hat - if gut feeling stays negative, that matters

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Common Pitfalls

1. Skipping to decision Starting with Blue Hat (decision) without working through other hats. Leads to poor decisions based on incomplete thinking.

2. Black Hat becomes argument Black Hat degenerates into people attacking each other's positions rather than identifying risks objectively. Solution: Frame as "What risks exist?" not "Why is your idea bad?"

3. Yellow Hat blindness Skipping or rushing Yellow Hat because "we already know the benefits." Yellow reveals non-obvious value. Solution: Force 20 minutes on Yellow - stretch to find all benefits.

4. Green Hat avoids problems Green Hat generates new ideas instead of solving Black Hat risks. Solution: Explicitly map Green solutions to Black risks.

5. White Hat becomes debate Arguing about whether something is a fact or assumption. Solution: If debatable, it's an assumption. Move on.

6. Red Hat gets justified "I feel nervous because..." - stop at "I feel nervous." Solution: No "because" allowed in Red Hat.

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Adapting the Method

Short Validation (30 minutes)

Use only: Red → Yellow → Black → Blue

Good for: Straightforward ideas, time pressure, preliminary validation

Deep Dive (3 hours)

Add second round: After Blue Hat decision, do another Yellow/Black/Green cycle on the MVP version.

Good for: Major strategic bets, high-uncertainty ideas

Remote/Async Validation

1. Send materials in advance
2. Each person completes each hat independently (written)
3. Facilitator synthesizes
4. Meeting to discuss and decide

Good for: Distributed teams, busy stakeholders

Collaborative Scoring

Use Six Hats to revisit evaluation scores:

• Did Black Hat reveal risks that lower Feasibility score?
• Did Yellow Hat reveal benefits that increase Customer Value?

Good for: When evaluation scores feel uncertain

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Integration Points

Input from idea-evaluation:

• Top 3-5 ideas with scores
• Key concerns noted during evaluation
• Critical assumptions flagged

Input from solution-definition:

• Closed World map (grounds White and Black Hats)
• PRFAQ (provides Yellow Hat benefits and vision)

Output to implementation:

• Clear go/no-go decision with rationale
• Risk mitigation strategies
• Assumptions to test first
• MVP definition (if ITERATE)

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When to Re-Validate

Trigger re-validation if:

• Initial implementation reveals new information
• Market conditions change significantly
• Critical assumption proves false
• 3-6 months pass without progress

Re-validation process:

• Review original validation notes
• Focus on what changed (White Hat - new facts)
• Update Black Hat with new risks
• Re-decide: continue, pivot, or stop

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Success Metrics

Good validation session produces:

• Clear decision (go/no-go/iterate) with confidence
• 5-10 critical risks identified
• 3-5 risk mitigation strategies
• List of assumptions to test
• Team alignment on next steps

Warning signs of poor validation:

• No decision or "let's think about it more"
• Risks not identified (only optimism)
• No clear next steps
• Team still deeply divided
• Gut feeling and analysis completely contradict

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Next Steps

After completing critical validation:

1. If GO: Begin implementation with risk mitigation built in
2. If ITERATE: Build MVP, test assumptions, re-validate
3. If NO-GO: Archive learnings, consider next idea from evaluation ranking
4. Document: Use template in assets/validation-template.md
5. Review: Schedule checkpoint to review progress and assumptions

If Black Hat reveals hard technical challenges, consider using the technical-breakthrough skill (TRIZ) to solve contradictions creatively.

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Remember

Six Thinking Hats is not about consensus - it's about exploring an idea thoroughly from all angles before deciding. Good validation might reveal an idea isn't worth pursuing - that's success, not failure. Better to learn in 90 minutes than after 6 months of building.

Evaluation narrowed options. Validation tests assumptions. Don't confuse the two.