| name | lemma-baseline |
| description | Establish an honest score to beat before complex modeling, including the validation design, metric, no-information rule, and simplest credible model. |
Baseline
Deliver
Provide a reproducible validation design, a no-information or rule baseline,
the simplest credible model, and the precise score later models must beat.
Check
- Define the outcome, observation unit, prediction moment, intended use, and a
fixed seed.
- Match the split to deployment: time-ordered for temporal prediction, grouped
for repeated entities, otherwise a fixed random split.
- Keep preprocessing inside the training pipeline.
- Choose a decision-relevant metric; do not rely on accuracy alone for
imbalanced outcomes.
- Compare subgroup behavior and variation across folds or seeds when material.
Do not tune complex models, repeatedly inspect a final test set, preprocess
before splitting, or celebrate a score without the dumb baseline.
For feature iteration and metric guidance, read
references/deep-guide.md.