lemma-causal

name	lemma-causal
description	Estimate the effect of an intervention for experiments and defensible quasi-experimental or observational designs; do not substitute prediction for identification.

Causal inference

Deliver

State the design, target population, estimand, effect with uncertainty, diagnostic evidence, identifying assumptions, and an action-limited conclusion. If the assignment story is unknown, report association only.

Check

• Establish treatment, outcome, unit, timing, assignment mechanism, and counterfactual comparison.
• Preserve randomized assignment and exclude post-treatment variables from adjustment.
• For observational work, state identification assumptions before choosing covariates or an estimator.
• Inspect balance, overlap, interference, attrition, compliance, outcome measurement, and treatment timing as applicable.
• Challenge the weakest assumption with a pre-trend, placebo, balance, or sensitivity check.

Do not call correlation causal, control for mediators or colliders, choose groups after seeing outcomes, or bury failed overlap or pre-trends.

For design diagnostics and sensitivity methods, read references/deep-guide.md.