paradex-risk-guardian

name	paradex-risk-guardian
description	Real-time risk monitoring, margin analysis, and protective alerts for Paradex trading accounts and vaults. Synthesizes account summary, positions, market data, and funding rates into actionable risk metrics — liquidation distance, portfolio concentration, margin utilization, exposure heatmaps, and daily P&L attribution. Use this skill whenever the user asks about their risk on Paradex, margin health, liquidation levels, portfolio exposure, drawdown, how much they can lose, position sizing, or when they say things like "am I safe", "check my risk", "how close am I to liquidation", "what's my exposure", "should I be worried", "risk report", or any question about the safety of their Paradex positions or vault positions. Also trigger for any request to monitor or set alerts on Paradex account health.
compatibility	Requires Paradex MCP server (mcp-paradex-py)
metadata	{"author":"tradeparadex","version":"1.2"}

Paradex Risk Guardian

Synthesizes data from multiple Paradex MCP tools into a unified risk picture. Answers the question: "Am I safe?" with specific numbers and actionable recommendations.

Available MCP Tools (data sources)

Tool	Risk data it provides
paradex_vault_account_summary	Margin usage, total equity, maintenance margin, available balance
paradex_vault_positions	Open positions, unrealized PnL, entry prices, sizes
paradex_vault_balance	Cash available for new positions
paradex_market_summaries	Current prices, 24h changes, funding rates, volatility context
paradex_markets	Position limits, margin params, price bands width
paradex_bbo	Current prices for mark-to-market
paradex_funding_data	Funding cost/income over time
paradex_orderbook	Liquidity available for exit

Risk Assessment Framework

1. Account Health Check

Pull paradex_vault_account_summary and compute:

• Margin utilization: used_margin / total_equity × 100%

  • <50%: Healthy (green)
  • 50-75%: Caution (yellow)
  • 75-90%: Warning (orange)

  • 90%: Danger — liquidation risk (red)

• Free margin: total_equity - used_margin — how much capacity for new positions

• Liquidation buffer: estimate distance to liquidation as a percentage price move

For the full per-position IMR/MMR breakdown and cross-margin vs. portfolio-margin methodology detail, use paradex-pm-analyzer. Risk Guardian gives a health summary; pm-analyzer gives the underlying margin math.

• For each position: how much can the market move against you before maintenance margin is breached?
• Report the tightest (most dangerous) position
• When a specific position is queried (e.g., "how close am I to liquidation on my BTC?"), focus the liquidation analysis on that position only. Estimate the dollar P&L loss if it were liquidated at the estimated liquidation price: (entry_price − liq_price) × size for longs, (liq_price − entry_price) × size for shorts. Do not include liquidation details for other positions unless the user asks for a comparison or full portfolio view.

2. Position Analysis

Pull paradex_vault_positions and analyze:

Concentration risk:

• Calculate notional value of each position
• Compute percentage of total exposure per market
• Flag if any single position is >40% of total exposure
• Flag if top 2 positions are >70% of total exposure

Directional bias:

• Sum net delta across all positions
• Report as: "Net long $X notional" or "Net short $X notional"
• Compare net exposure to account equity for effective leverage

Unrealized P&L:

• Total unrealized P&L across all positions
• Unrealized P&L as percentage of equity
• Identify worst-performing position (biggest drag)
• Identify best-performing position

3. Funding Cost Analysis

For each open position, estimate funding cost:

1. Get current funding rate from paradex_market_summaries
2. Calculate 24h funding cost: position_notional × funding_rate × (24 / funding_period_hours)
3. Annualize: daily_cost × 365
4. Sum across all positions for total portfolio funding cost/income

Report:

• Total daily funding cost/income
• Per-position funding breakdown
• Flag positions where funding is >0.1% daily (costly to hold)

4. Liquidity Risk

For each position, check exit liquidity via paradex_orderbook:

• Can the full position be exited within 1% slippage?
• What percentage of the position could be exited at current depth?
• Flag illiquid positions where orderbook depth < 50% of position size within 2%

5. Stress Testing (Scenario Analysis)

Run simple what-if scenarios:

Price shock scenarios:

• -5% across all markets: estimate portfolio P&L impact
• -10% across all markets: estimate P&L + check if margin call triggered
• -20% across all markets: extreme scenario

Calculation for each scenario: For each position: position_size × price_change × direction_multiplier Sum to get portfolio impact, subtract from equity, check against maintenance margin.

Correlation stress: If user holds multiple crypto positions, note that crypto assets are highly correlated. A -10% BTC move often means -12 to -20% in alts. Apply asset-specific beta adjustments:

• BTC: 1.0x
• ETH: ~1.2x
• Alts: ~1.5-2.0x

6. Daily P&L Attribution

Break down the day's P&L into components:

• Trading P&L: unrealized P&L changes from position mark-to-market
• Funding P&L: funding payments received or paid
• Fee P&L: trading fees incurred (if data available)
• Net P&L: sum of above

Risk Score

Compute an overall risk score (1-10) based on:

Factor	Weight	Score 1 (Low Risk)	Score 10 (High Risk)
Margin utilization	30%	<30%	>90%
Position concentration	20%	No position >25%	Single position >60%
Effective leverage	20%	<2x	>10x
Funding cost (daily)	15%	Net positive	>0.2% of equity
Liquidity risk	15%	All positions liquid	Major positions illiquid

Weighted sum → Risk Score 1-10

Labels: 1–3 Low, 4–5 Moderate, 6–7 High, 8–10 Critical

Output Format

Quick Risk Check

## Risk Check — [Account/Vault]

🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 **Risk Score: X/10 — Low/Moderate/High/Critical**

| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Margin Used | X% | 🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 |
| Free Margin | $X | — |
| Net Exposure | $X (Xx leverage) | 🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 |
| Largest Position | MARKET (X% of exposure) | 🟢/🟡 |
| Unrealized P&L | $X (X% of equity) | — |
| Daily Funding Cost | $X | — |
| Tightest Liquidation | MARKET @ $X (X% away) | 🟢/🟡/🟠/🔴 |

### Recommendations

When risk score ≥ 7, lead with the warning block **before** the metrics table.
Then include a prioritized remediation list tailored to what's driving the score:

- **Margin >75%:** "Reduce your [largest position] by X% to bring margin below 70%.
  Use `paradex-order-builder` to size the closing order; check `paradex-pm-analyzer`
  for precise IMR impact before placing."
- **Concentration >40% single position:** "Trim [MARKET] to below 30% of total exposure."
- **Leverage >7x:** "Net exposure is [X]x account equity — close or reduce [largest
  position] first."
- **Funding >0.1%/day:** "Daily carry cost on [MARKET] is ~$[X] — at this rate you pay
  ~$[Y]/month. Evaluate whether expected return justifies the carry."
- **Liquidity risk:** "Your [MARKET] position may be hard to exit at full size — consider
  a staged exit over multiple orders."

When score < 7, omit the Recommendations section entirely — do not add warnings when the
account is healthy.

Full Risk Report

## Full Risk Report — [Account/Vault]

### Account Overview
[equity, margin, free capital]

### Position Breakdown
[table of all positions with notional, direction, P&L, liquidation distance]

### Concentration Analysis
[exposure distribution chart/table]

### Funding Analysis
[per-position funding costs, net daily cost]

### Stress Test Results
[scenario table: -5%, -10%, -20% impact]

### Liquidity Assessment
[exit capacity per position]

### Recommendations
[prioritized list of risk-reducing actions]

Safety Principles

• When risk score is ≥7, lead the response with the risk warning before any other analysis, then include specific remediation steps — reference paradex-order-builder for sizing down positions and paradex-pm-analyzer for margin impact analysis
• Proceed without asking: For open-ended queries ('am I safe?', 'check my risk', 'should I be worried?'), call tools immediately and produce the Risk Check output from what they return — do not request clarification before fetching data
• Never suggest increasing position size when margin utilization is >60%
• Always note that liquidation estimates are approximate — actual liquidation depends on mark price which can differ from last traded price
• Stress test results assume instantaneous price moves — real liquidations can cascade
• This is risk analysis, not financial advice
• Recommend the user verify critical numbers on the Paradex UI before acting

See margin-model.md for detailed Paradex margin formulas and risk scoring methodology.