employer-stock

name

employer-stock

description

Analyze employer / equity-plan stock (shares held via an employer equity plan, RSUs, ESPP) as a SEPARATE concentration and wealth problem from the rest of the portfolio. Use when the user mentions employer stock, RSUs, ESPP, vesting, an equity-plan platform, "my company shares", or asks "should I keep / sell / trim my employer stock". Treats single-employer exposure as the dominant long-term risk it usually is.

Employer Stock Deep Dive (concentration · vesting · tax · opportunity cost)

Goal

Decide hold / trim-gradual / trim-now / sell on employer or equity-plan stock, treating it as a distinct risk bucket. The core question is long-term: single-employer concentration is undiversified human + financial capital - salary AND a chunk of net worth ride the same company. Default skepticism toward large employer-stock weights; the burden is on KEEPING it, not selling.

Why this is its own skill

get_profile only sees Wealthsimple accounts. Employer equity plans live OUTSIDE WS - the system is blind to them. So this skill MUST ask the user for the plan data it cannot fetch.

Decision Memory Protocol (load first, log after)

Before the analysis, load prior decisions on this employer ticker so the verdict stays consistent across sessions:

• mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_decision_history (ticker=TICKER, max_decisions=5) + mcp__aifolimizer__get_ticker_reflection (symbol=TICKER, n=3) + mcp__aifolimizer__get_cross_ticker_lessons (max_lessons=3). If a prior decision exists and this run flips it, state explicitly WHY (new data / catalyst / price); never silently contradict a logged decision.

After output, log the verdict: call mcp__aifolimizer__log_recommendation (skill="employer-stock", ticker, action, conviction, rationale, target_pct, stop_pct).

Stage 0 - Gather what the system can't see (ASK)

Request from the user (don't guess):

• Ticker + shares held in the plan, current plan value
• Cost basis / acquisition type: RSU (vests as ordinary income), ESPP (often 15% discount, look-back), open-market, options
• Vesting schedule + unvested amount + vest dates
• Account/tax wrapper the shares sit in (registered? taxable? US plan w/ 401k?)
• Annual salary from the SAME employer (to size human-capital concentration)
• Any blackout windows / trading restrictions / sale-after-vest rules

Then pull the public side:

• get_profile + get_portfolio - total invested + whether the same ticker is ALSO held in WS (double-counting the bet)
• get_fundamentals (ticker) - yield, payout, growth, beta, analyst target
• get_dividend_calendar (symbols=[ticker]) - ex-div / pay timing for hold-vs-sell
• get_dcf_valuation (US ticker) - intrinsic-value anchor (most US large-caps qualify)
• get_positioning_signals (symbols=[ticker]) - is the Street crowded / contrarian
• get_news_headlines (ticker) - live catalyst check

Stage 1 - Concentration math (the heart of it)

Compute and state explicitly:

• Financial concentration = employer-stock value ÷ (WS portfolio + plan value). Flag > 10% (elevated), > 20% (high), > 30% (severe).
• Total exposure = include salary. If salary + stock both depend on the employer, a 10% portfolio weight understates true risk. Name this.
• Overlap: if WS also holds the same ticker or a sector ETF heavy in it, add that - the real bet is larger than the plan line alone.

Stage 2 - Keep vs cut (the decision)

Weigh, long-term lens:

• Reasons to KEEP (temporarily): large embedded gain in a taxable wrapper (selling triggers tax now), strong + safe dividend, ESPP shares still inside the discount/qualifying-disposition window, near a vest with favorable tax.
• Reasons to CUT: concentration > 20%, weak fundamentals vs get_dcf_valuation, consensus-crowded (crowding ≥ 70) with no edge, dividend at risk (high payout
  • falling FCF), thesis is "I work here" not "it's the best use of capital".
• Opportunity cost: frame against the user's default long-term vehicle (a diversified index ETF). "Is this single name a better 10-yr hold than a diversified index?" If not, the bar to keep concentrated is high.

Stage 3 - Execution shape

• Trim gradually (default for big embedded gains): sell on a schedule (e.g. every vest, or quarterly) to spread tax + average exit, target a concentration cap (e.g. ≤ 10%).
• Trim now: if concentration severe AND fundamentals weak - discipline beats tax optimization when the position can halve.
• Sell-at-vest policy: for future RSU vests, recommend auto-sell-on-vest (no new tax cost - already taxed as income at vest) to stop re-concentrating.
• Tax note: vest = ordinary income (already taxed); subsequent gain = cap gain. ESPP discount is ordinary income; qualifying dispositions change treatment. Canadian taxable account: 50% cap-gains inclusion on the post-vest gain.

Output

EMPLOYER STOCK: <ticker> via <plan>
Concentration: financial X% · with-salary lens: <note> · WS overlap: <Y/N>
Fundamentals: yield X% (safe/at-risk) · DCF fair value $Z (over/under) · crowding <label>
Verdict: KEEP | TRIM GRADUAL | TRIM NOW | SELL
Plan: <schedule / cap target / sell-at-vest policy>
Tax note: <wrapper-specific>
What would change the verdict: <triggers>

Rules

• Never fabricate plan data - if the user hasn't given shares/cost/vesting, ASK; do not assume.
• Concentration is the headline. A great company at 30% of net worth is still a risk problem.
• Don't let an embedded tax gain alone justify keeping a severe concentration - name the trade-off, let the user decide.
• Default long-term framing (the user's stated goal). Intraday/swing logic does not apply to plan stock.
• US ticker → use get_dcf_valuation. Non-US → say DCF unavailable, lean on analyst target + multiples.